3 ms·

On RAM supplies, the best estimates I've seen are https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/cxmt-close-to-matching-microns-memory-capacity-in-2026-researc

by nl 3mo ago

On RAM supplies, the best estimates I've seen are https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/cxmt-close-to-matching-microns-memory-capacity-in-2026-research-claims-would-put-china-on-track-to-become-worlds-second-largest-dram-producer https://www.tomshardware.com/pc-components/dram/cxmt-close-t... They are estimating a 25% shortfall in supply remaining in 2030, even with Chinese companies ramping up DDR5 supply. It's not looking great - the RAM producers need more of the same machines that other semi-conductor manufactures need and the suppliers of those seem unable to increase production.

mapontosevenths 3mo ago
> the RAM producers need more of the same machines that other semi-conductor manufactures need and the suppliers of those seem unable to increase production I suspect that it is very, very profitable for them not to increase production and instead increase prices. This is one of those cases where the free market fails and governments should step-in. IP laws are there to elevate the arts and sciences, not stifle them in the name of profit.
- esseph 3mo ago
  > IP laws are there to elevate the arts and sciences, not stifle them in the name of profit. Hmmmmmmmmm
  - mapontosevenths 3mo ago
    I mean, that's what the US constitution says very plainly. It does seem to be a pretty unpopular take these days though. "To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries."
    - hyperman1 3mo ago
      "To protect the children, ...."
      - mapontosevenths 3mo ago
        The government invented intellectual property for a reason, and in this context it isn't serving it's puprose. It's not some natural law or inalienable right, it's a government monopoly that trades public rights for scientific progress.
        hyperman1 3mo ago
        The reason of copyright has always been to protect the current powers. To promote usefull arts has always been a whitewash. Here's e.g. wikipedia on that topic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_copyright https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_copyright ... works of dissent and criticism could also circulate rapidly. As a consequence, governments established controls over printers ...
doom2 3mo ago
It's good to know that despite warnings of a shortage in 2024, little was done in advance to prepare and now we're looking at years of shortfall for both commercial and consumer needs. Export controls preventing fab equipment being sold to China will likely extend it further. It will be interesting to see how much consumer electronics companies will be able to raise prices before people call it quits. Especially with the new normal of electronics getting more expensive post-release instead of less (eg, the PS5).
- nl 3mo ago
  I think it's important to note the context though: There had been a RAM glut that meant Micron lost money every quarter in 2023, with revenue almost halving vs 2022. This was post-pandemic, and demand had dropped a huge amount. The RAM companies didn't have money to invest. https://www.chiplog.io/p/dram-was-the-worst-business-in-chips https://www.chiplog.io/p/dram-was-the-worst-business-in-chip...

by nl 3mo ago

mapontosevenths 3mo ago

> the RAM producers need more of the same machines that other semi-conductor manufactures need and the suppliers of those seem unable to increase production I suspect that it is very, very profitable for them not to increase production and instead increase prices. This is one of those cases where the free market fails and governments should step-in. IP laws are there to elevate the arts and sciences, not stifle them in the name of profit.

esseph 3mo ago
> IP laws are there to elevate the arts and sciences, not stifle them in the name of profit. Hmmmmmmmmm
- mapontosevenths 3mo ago
  I mean, that's what the US constitution says very plainly. It does seem to be a pretty unpopular take these days though. "To promote the Progress of Science and useful Arts, by securing for limited Times to Authors and Inventors the exclusive Right to their respective Writings and Discoveries."
  - hyperman1 3mo ago
    "To protect the children, ...."
    - mapontosevenths 3mo ago
      The government invented intellectual property for a reason, and in this context it isn't serving it's puprose. It's not some natural law or inalienable right, it's a government monopoly that trades public rights for scientific progress.
      - hyperman1 3mo ago
        The reason of copyright has always been to protect the current powers. To promote usefull arts has always been a whitewash. Here's e.g. wikipedia on that topic: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_copyright https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_copyright ... works of dissent and criticism could also circulate rapidly. As a consequence, governments established controls over printers ...

doom2 3mo ago

It's good to know that despite warnings of a shortage in 2024, little was done in advance to prepare and now we're looking at years of shortfall for both commercial and consumer needs. Export controls preventing fab equipment being sold to China will likely extend it further. It will be interesting to see how much consumer electronics companies will be able to raise prices before people call it quits. Especially with the new normal of electronics getting more expensive post-release instead of less (eg, the PS5).

nl 3mo ago
I think it's important to note the context though: There had been a RAM glut that meant Micron lost money every quarter in 2023, with revenue almost halving vs 2022. This was post-pandemic, and demand had dropped a huge amount. The RAM companies didn't have money to invest. https://www.chiplog.io/p/dram-was-the-worst-business-in-chips https://www.chiplog.io/p/dram-was-the-worst-business-in-chip...