Indeed probability is only useful when there is uncertainty. When there is certainty, probability is nonsensical. While I think YC may be quite adept at choosi

Indeed probability is only useful when there is uncertainty. When there is certainty, probability is nonsensical. While I think YC may be quite adept at choosing only people over 6'2", people in general are not very good at knowing if they are over 6'2" in entrepreneurial talent. We know people are very bad at judging their own competence, and generally vastly over-estimate it. There is no tape measure for entrepreneurial competence. Unfortunately, I'm not sure anyone, even the YC partner group, is able to reliably measure future success, though I'm sure you are much better than most investors. Further, an enormous amount of luck is involved, as demonstrated by the large number of one-hit-wonder entrepreneurs, the vast range in outcome for similarly talented people, as well as the large number of impressive entrepreneurs who never really succeed. So I do think it makes sense to apply probability to your chance of success, no matter who you are. Very talented entrepreneurs still have a high chance of failure, and there is also a good chance that someone is not as talented as they and others think they are. We all know people of both types.