2 ms·

Where are you getting that 80% figure from? Even semi analysis, the most aggressively optimistic analysts, put it at around 60%. https://newsletter.semianalysi

Where are you getting that 80% figure from? Even semi analysis, the most aggressively optimistic analysts, put it at around 60%. https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-growth-and-bedrock-mix https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-growth-and-b...

OGWhales 3mo ago
>The divergence in business models is directly reflected in financial data. SemiAnalysis estimates that Anthropic's overall gross margin has rebounded from negative 94% in 2024 to the mid-60% range, with the gross margin of its API business exceeding 80%. Their link seems to claim semi analysis thinks it is 80%. It looks like it might be referencing this newer article from them, as the same picture is in both articles, but I didn't feel like paying to find out: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-3q26-profit-over-1b-the https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-3q26-profit-...
tristanj 3mo ago
It's clearly listed in the article I linked. The number comes from SemiAnalysis, from a newer report than the one you cited.
- reticulates 3mo ago
  Looks like it’s behind a paywall. I’ll take their word for it that semi analysis now estimate it to be 80%. That makes my point even stronger, if that number is true, where is the money? The report says that Anthropic generate over $50bn in revenue so at 80% margins that gives $40bn in profit. Where is that money? If they’re generating $40bn in profit, even after accounting for very high employee compensation and training costs… they should have tens of billions in profit, yet they’re out raising tens of billions instead. Where is the money going? And if only 20% is their actual inference costs, where are all these compute providers going to make their money? The world is at compute capacity on, what, $10bn in revenue?
  - twoodfin 3mo ago
    If you figured out how to build a machine that turns electricity into gold with an 80% margin, of course you’d go out raising capital to build more machines.
    - reticulates 3mo ago
      Your contention is they're spending it on what, exactly? Leaks put OpenAI's training spend at single-digit billions so that can't be the machines they're building, and they (OpenAI + Anthropic) are famously renting/leasing/borrowing compute through varying-degrees-of-circular deals... so what's the machines they're building?
      - twoodfin 3mo ago
        Just as the article supposes: Getting their hands on as much compute as possible to address rapidly growing demand for inference.
        reticulates 3mo ago
        but your contention is they are profitable on inference. Why would they need to raise money to get their hands on compute if they're making money on compute? There's no upfront costs for Anthropic, Anthropic don't own or build compute infrastructure, they just rent access to compute owned by someone else, such as the $15bn/year SpaceX deal they signed recently (which they used to create more demand without increasing revenue). https://www.anthropic.com/news/higher-limits-spacex https://www.anthropic.com/news/higher-limits-spacex
        twoodfin 3mo ago
        The more capital Anthropic has, the more compute they can put their hands on and sell at a massive markup for Claude inference. Limiting themselves to the profits from the compute they already have when capital markets are dying to give them cash at favorable terms would be foolish.

OGWhales 3mo ago

>The divergence in business models is directly reflected in financial data. SemiAnalysis estimates that Anthropic's overall gross margin has rebounded from negative 94% in 2024 to the mid-60% range, with the gross margin of its API business exceeding 80%. Their link seems to claim semi analysis thinks it is 80%. It looks like it might be referencing this newer article from them, as the same picture is in both articles, but I didn't feel like paying to find out: https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-3q26-profit-over-1b-the https://newsletter.semianalysis.com/p/anthropic-3q26-profit-...

tristanj 3mo ago

It's clearly listed in the article I linked. The number comes from SemiAnalysis, from a newer report than the one you cited.

reticulates 3mo ago
Looks like it’s behind a paywall. I’ll take their word for it that semi analysis now estimate it to be 80%. That makes my point even stronger, if that number is true, where is the money? The report says that Anthropic generate over $50bn in revenue so at 80% margins that gives $40bn in profit. Where is that money? If they’re generating $40bn in profit, even after accounting for very high employee compensation and training costs… they should have tens of billions in profit, yet they’re out raising tens of billions instead. Where is the money going? And if only 20% is their actual inference costs, where are all these compute providers going to make their money? The world is at compute capacity on, what, $10bn in revenue?
- twoodfin 3mo ago
  If you figured out how to build a machine that turns electricity into gold with an 80% margin, of course you’d go out raising capital to build more machines.
  - reticulates 3mo ago
    Your contention is they're spending it on what, exactly? Leaks put OpenAI's training spend at single-digit billions so that can't be the machines they're building, and they (OpenAI + Anthropic) are famously renting/leasing/borrowing compute through varying-degrees-of-circular deals... so what's the machines they're building?
    - twoodfin 3mo ago
      Just as the article supposes: Getting their hands on as much compute as possible to address rapidly growing demand for inference.
      - reticulates 3mo ago
        but your contention is they are profitable on inference. Why would they need to raise money to get their hands on compute if they're making money on compute? There's no upfront costs for Anthropic, Anthropic don't own or build compute infrastructure, they just rent access to compute owned by someone else, such as the $15bn/year SpaceX deal they signed recently (which they used to create more demand without increasing revenue). https://www.anthropic.com/news/higher-limits-spacex https://www.anthropic.com/news/higher-limits-spacex
        twoodfin 3mo ago
        The more capital Anthropic has, the more compute they can put their hands on and sell at a massive markup for Claude inference. Limiting themselves to the profits from the compute they already have when capital markets are dying to give them cash at favorable terms would be foolish.