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Intelligence Council Predicts 3D Printed Organs, Megacities, Brain Chips by 2030
- indiecore 14y agoWhat did forecast 2010 look like from 1990?
- oscilloscope 14y agoAT&T forecast ads from 1993: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZb0avfQme8 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TZb0avfQme8 Apple, 1990: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlfTDlgAl_A http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tlfTDlgAl_A
- othello 14y agoGlobal trends 2010 from the National Intelligence Council. http://web.archive.org/web/20110519014210/http://www.dni.gov/nic/special_globaltrends2010.html http://web.archive.org/web/20110519014210/http://www.dni.gov... Surprisingly, the direct link no longer works, so I had to go through archive.org
- Aardwolf 14y agoI remember reading in 2000 that every home would have domotica in 2010. Yeh, right. I think around as much homes have it today, as there were in 2000.
- swalsh 14y agoHonestly, not that far off... granted it seems to have more of a political perspective then technological: this is paragraph one from the section on Europe. "First, European governments will be absorbed by the need to renegotiate the social contract, i.e., the entitlement programs of the social welfare state hammered out in the post-1945 period. This is not a choice but a necessity: a large, aging population sits atop a shrinking labor pool and declining birth rates, unemployment remains chronic, and growth rates are projected at 2-3 percent per year at best--acceptable by historical standards (as well as the standards of other countries) but short of public expectations. Labor market rigidities and lack of productivity growth will strengthen protectionist tendencies."
- mattmanser 14y agoHuh? Not that far off? That's totally off. There's no renegotiation going on of the social contract.
- cygx 14y agoPerhaps not on a large scale, but things like Agenda 2010 and Riester-Rente in Germany are just that written small.
- hwallace 14y agoAm I the only one who is pessimistic about a superhuman-capability future? Regardless of the accuracy of the predictions.
- Narretz 14y agoWe still know little about how memory works, and they speak of tweaking access times and recall? I doubt there will be a breakthrough by 2030.
- c1u 14y agoI can travel to almost any point on the planet in less than a day for the cost of a few days work. I can converse with billions of people instantly at almost zero cost. I have access to medical tech that makes it trivial for me to survive ailments that would have killed anyone in the last several million years. We can "see" hundreds of planets around other stars, and are finding more every day. These are just the first few that popped into my head. Compared to all of human history, we are already superhuman.
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- samstave 14y agoIf you think project managers are useless then I'd never want to work on a project with you. Poor project managers are useless, but so is a poor developer, technician or any other specialty. Great project managers are gold. Just as is a great dev. Don't be so myopic.
- deleted 14y ago[deleted]
- psweber 14y ago> Great project managers are gold. Don't know what the deleted comment said, but I second that. A good PM protects you from the nonsense that kills focus.
- cbennett 14y ago"As with the NIC’s previous Global Trends reports, we do not seek to predict the future—which would be an impossible feat—but instead provide a framework for thinking about possible futures and their implications." Consideration of possible futures seems like a difficult but important task. You disparage PM, but in reality is this speculative task so different from the work that product designers/inventors do when they attempt to predict the behavior patterns and wants of future users?
- Petrushka 14y agoI have the Washington Post from Jan 1, 2000. Below the fold is an article on what the future would hold tech-wise for a child born that day. By 2010, we were all supposed to be wearing wristbands with all of our medical information on it, so doctors would simply have to scan them to gain our history. We also wouldn't have cheap (meaning not thousands upon thousands of dollars) mobile computers with the ability to access the internet from anywhere until 2020. I can't remember any of the others, but all of the predictions for around now (other then the smartphone one) are completely and totally off. All of these prediction things are bullshit, as most futurist ideas generally are. There's no accountability, because no one will remember the reports. It's ridiculous that the government pays people to write these things, and just as ridiculous that Wired publishes them. I think SMBC put it best: http://www.smbc-comics.com/?db=comics&id=1968#comic http://www.smbc-comics.com/?db=comics&id=1968#comic
- psweber 14y agoYou really sucked the fun out of that.
- Petrushka 14y agoThere are so many awesome and fascinating things being made and discovered now. I don't see why you need to go and make some ridiculous predictions about the future to be inspired as to where technology is leading us.
- rthomas6 14y agoWhat is stopping something like the medical wristband thing? Nobody would wear a bracelet like that, but why not an RFID card? That seems like a great idea. What would it take to start something like that?
- MichaelSalib 14y agoSecurity is a big problem. Do you want everyone who gets within 10 feet of you to have access to your complete medical history, name, social security number and insurance information? Then there's the fact that RFIDs can't send much data; you could have them send a UUID that allows doctors to look you up over the internet, but now your wristband is a universal tracking device that allows anyone to track your movements. Beyond that, a medical history that can't be updated is pretty useless, but our fragmented healthcare system isn't able to agree on standards for electronic medical records or how to synchronize them across different providers. Actually, getting doctors to use EMRs will probably be the work of a generation.
- sdafdasdfasdf 14y agoEvery futurist claim I've ever heard has overestimated human capability and underestimated the impact of other things they possibly should have seen coming.
- alexakarpov 14y agommhm, for one thing, I wonder why there's no mention of what's going to replace/augment the relatively cheap fossil fuels of today. And point at some massive current developments in that area.
- cbennett 14y agoHere is the actual report instead of just a summary, in case any one else was looking for it. To be honest i found the technical projections/forecasts to be quite spare on details (at least compared to the geopolitical ones; but I suppose that is to be expected) http://www.acus.org/files/global-trends-2030-nic-lo.pdf http://www.acus.org/files/global-trends-2030-nic-lo.pdf
- hcarvalhoalves 14y agoEverytime these predictions are made, the outcome seems to be the exact opposite. That said, in 2030 I predict: - After toying with 3D printers for a while, they will go back to vat-grown organs - With widespread Internet access, remote work being a reality and local energy generation, people will leave the big cities seeking better life quality in smaller, country-side cities - There won't be brain chips
- batgaijin 14y agoI think predictions overdo the 'physical' improvements like hover cars. I mean, it's almost 2013 and a majority of the population has general computers connected to the internet in their pockets, through which we can watch almost any movie or listen to any song. Try explaining that to someone from the early 80's. Too bad the head of wired is a pessimist when it comes to the singularity; I think he's just as deluded as everyone else when it comes to accepting what exponential means.
- pi18n 14y agoWhen the singularity happens, some douche will already have a patent on it and ruin it for everyone.
- cygx 14y agoThere won't be brain chips Sure about that? http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/142797-brain-pacemaker-helps-treat-alzheimers-disease http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/142797-brain-pacemaker-he...
- jlgreco 14y agoHell, cochlear implants are pretty damn close already, and we are making progress on the optical equivalent. These technologies, plus 20 years of improvements to them, are really only a mere application away from giving the user augmented reality. I think the only real question is will the economics of the implants permit "casual" usage.
- TDL 14y ago
- DanI-S 14y agoI love how our predictions of the future never account for the existence of poor people. That's why they're always so wildly off; the vast bulk of humanity are never factored into the equation. While I don't doubt there'll be printable organs and brain-integrated silicon by 2030, the majority of people will not benefit, and the tensions brought about by escalating inequality will set progress back by years.
- trurl 14y agoYes, my first thought was with rising healthcare costs whether even I'd be able to afford these fancy manufactured organs should I need them.
- pi18n 14y agoI have nightmares about neural implants being available but out of my ability to pay for them. And I am fortunate enough to be able to afford food and shelter. Poverty is a serious problem that should be solved. Food, shelter, healthcare, and neural implants should be available to everyone.
- dmix 14y ago> escalating inequality Worldwide poverty has been declining for decades. Costs of technology is declining at an ever rapid pace. Income equality between the top bracket and the bottom != less access to technology for everyone
- duaneb 14y agoThere will always be poor people, but quality of life goes up for everyone. Just look at e.g. how many people own computers/TVs/Cell Phones compared to 20 years ago. World wide (outside of my native US), I have less of an idea.
- whileonebegin 14y agoIf you enjoy these kind of brain modification technologies, check out the book The Brain That Changes Itself, which discusses neural plasticity http://www.amazon.com/Brain-That-Changes-Itself-Frontiers/dp/0143113100 http://www.amazon.com/Brain-That-Changes-Itself-Frontiers/dp.... This is the science that led to the cochlear implant and may lead to other brain-interface devices. Also, the part about biohacks and bio-weapons, reminded me of the movie Prometheus.
- charonn0 14y agoI'm still waiting for my jetpack and flying car.
- pavel_lishin 14y agoPeople can barely navigate in two dimensions; I think that self-driving cars are a necessary prerequisite for flying cars.
- charonn0 14y agoI was commenting more on the difficulty of predicting technological change than complaining about the lack of personal flying machines.
- bitwize 14y agoSo a William Gibson dystopian nightmare. That's... nice to know.