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To everyone praising Open weight models, could you answer a simple question? If Anthropic doesn't make money because of distillation attacks, how would they co
by simianwords 3mo ago
To everyone praising Open weight models, could you answer a simple question?
If Anthropic doesn't make money because of distillation attacks, how would they convince investors to invest in them, such that it makes financial sense for Anthropic to train even bigger models?
Assuming it is preferable for everyone that we get better models in the future. Distillation attacks remove the financial incentive.
- __bjoernd 3mo agoThis assumes all the open models are just a result of distilling Anthropic models. Which remains to be proven. And if they are, the point remains that Anthropic has a brittle product advantage that users and investors should be cautious about.
- simianwords 3mo ago> investors should be cautious about if they are cautious, what would make them invest in newer bigger models without the expected return? generosity?
- drakythe 3mo agoSunk cost fallacy. So much money has been invested in Anthropic and OpenAI at this point that to declare it a loss and walk away could potentially destroy a lot of VC firms, and a non-trivial chunk of the US Economy.
- simianwords 3mo agoSunk cost fallacy is not relevant to future investment.
- daadx 3mo agowhat an absolute plonker do you know how ROIC is calculated? Good luck hiding your huge sunk cost of bilions and billions in there bro. I wish people who had zero understanding of actual finance would never comment about it. Moreover if they declare their existing assets are bunk, the valuation is marked down, especially after now pricing in failure risk - this is catastrophic for VC's. Again, bro, just be quiet.
- simianwords 3mo agosanest comment here
- SideburnsOfDoom 3mo ago> Sunk cost fallacy is not relevant to future investment Outside of future choices, what in the world is sunk cost fallacy in fact relevant to? Do you understand words?
- asadotzler 3mo agoOpenAI says they're not just distillation. "Some observations on Kimi: 1. It's a very good model! I don't think its performance can be explained away by distillation or anything like that." If you put any faith in claims made by OpenAI's "Head of Strategic Futures," then it's hard to believe these models are just the result of distillation.
- Alpha3031 3mo agoI don't think the timeline is plausible for Moonshot to have done any distillation from Fable, which means any distillation training data would have been from Opus.
- bellowsgulch 3mo agoYou can simplify your question even more: To everyone praising free and open source software, if software companies don't make money, how are they and YOU going to get paid, PERIOD?
- simianwords 3mo agoCommoditising complement
- swiftcoder 3mo agoThe frontier labs have been tightly controlling model access lately to prevent further distillation, and the Chinese labs are still catching up rapidly - it's likely that whatever moat they used distillation to overcome early on is already dry
- throwa356262 3mo agoWhile I am sure some do distillation (even r/LocalLLaMA is full of randos bragging about it), I wish the companies named by Anthropics would respond to these accusations. I think at least deepseek can easily take Anthropics to court and win a defamation case. The number of requests allegedly done from deepseek IP range is so small it is barely enough to run a few benchmarks.
- surgical_fire 3mo ago[Pending evidence that Chinese models are only based on distillation]
- watwut 3mo ago> f Anthropic doesn't make money because of distillation attacks, how would they convince investors to invest in them, I dont care if that company dies. Or if OpenAI dies. I dont mind investors investing into other things either.