Author here. In short there are 4 different metrics: - METR's time horizon - TrackingAI's offline cognitive test - Humanity's Last Exam, and - ARC-AGI-2 th

Author here. In short there are 4 different metrics: - METR's time horizon - TrackingAI's offline cognitive test - Humanity's Last Exam, and - ARC-AGI-2 that have lasted longer than 2 years (though ARC-AGI-2 is now saturated). When plotted in the linear domain, they all have an exponential (hockey-shaped) curve, but the interesting thing is that the bend happens right at Q4 of 2025 (right when Gemini 3, Opus 4.5, GPT 5.2 all come out).