3 ms·

I'm not going to predict the moment, because I thought the dotcom bubble would pop back in 1999. I could see how overvalued things were, what I couldn't predict

by rmunn 3mo ago

I'm not going to predict the moment, because I thought the dotcom bubble would pop back in 1999. I could see how overvalued things were, what I couldn't predict was how long the market would remain irrational.

jdw64 3mo ago
Honestly, I'd call that more of a wish than a prediction. Because most predictions specify which quarter something will burst. Saying that an industry structure will turn out a certain way is just stating the obvious, since everything eventually declines. Every new industry grows fast in the early days and then bursts. That's just wishful thinking. Claims like 'it will collapse someday' are actually unfalsifiable. Predictions that specify a quarter, on the other hand, are not. This is exactly why I think so-called pundits are useless. They repeat unfalsifiable claims over and over, and when it finally happens later, they say 'I told you so.' How ridiculous is that? I can make that kind of claim too. 'The US will collapse.' Sure, it will. But who knows if it'll even exist in a thousand years? So honestly, if there's no timeframe, it's meaningless. But most of what gets posted on HN is exactly this kind of unfalsifiable punditry. I'd rather write a new scenario. A scenario where AI succeeds, we're all classified as API tenant farmers, only a few influencers chosen by OpenAI and Anthropic survive, most programming companies shrink, and a new mega-tech emerges. That would be more fun to write.
zulux 3mo ago
For me, my blind spot has been China. They've maintained their bubble economy for decades longer than I (and a few other smarter people than me) think possible.
- grebc 3mo ago
  Maybe their economy isn’t as bubble like as you think?
  - rmunn 3mo ago
    I've seen many analysts say (I'm no expert myself so I'd have a hard time judging) that the official government figures for things like GDP and so on cannot possibly be accurate. (And before you ask "Which figures, which years, what degree of inaccuracy?" — you'll need to ask someone who actually knows). Which does make it kind of hard to figure anything out about China's economy from outside.
    - grebc 3mo ago
      I’ve heard the same. They keep on chugging along despite all the doom mongers. I think most people throwing shade are doing so of jealousy rather than well thought arguement.
      - zulux 3mo ago
        Yes... and no. DJI/BYD, etc are legit amazing. But entire ghost cities filled with unused condos scream bubble. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underoccupied_developments_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underoccupied_developments_in_...
        grebc 3mo ago
        They’ve been around for ages now, if it hasn’t rocked the boat when their real estate market has been subdued, I’m not sure what will.

by rmunn 3mo ago

jdw64 3mo ago

Honestly, I'd call that more of a wish than a prediction. Because most predictions specify which quarter something will burst. Saying that an industry structure will turn out a certain way is just stating the obvious, since everything eventually declines. Every new industry grows fast in the early days and then bursts. That's just wishful thinking. Claims like 'it will collapse someday' are actually unfalsifiable. Predictions that specify a quarter, on the other hand, are not. This is exactly why I think so-called pundits are useless. They repeat unfalsifiable claims over and over, and when it finally happens later, they say 'I told you so.' How ridiculous is that? I can make that kind of claim too. 'The US will collapse.' Sure, it will. But who knows if it'll even exist in a thousand years? So honestly, if there's no timeframe, it's meaningless. But most of what gets posted on HN is exactly this kind of unfalsifiable punditry. I'd rather write a new scenario. A scenario where AI succeeds, we're all classified as API tenant farmers, only a few influencers chosen by OpenAI and Anthropic survive, most programming companies shrink, and a new mega-tech emerges. That would be more fun to write.

zulux 3mo ago

For me, my blind spot has been China. They've maintained their bubble economy for decades longer than I (and a few other smarter people than me) think possible.

grebc 3mo ago
Maybe their economy isn’t as bubble like as you think?
- rmunn 3mo ago
  I've seen many analysts say (I'm no expert myself so I'd have a hard time judging) that the official government figures for things like GDP and so on cannot possibly be accurate. (And before you ask "Which figures, which years, what degree of inaccuracy?" — you'll need to ask someone who actually knows). Which does make it kind of hard to figure anything out about China's economy from outside.
  - grebc 3mo ago
    I’ve heard the same. They keep on chugging along despite all the doom mongers. I think most people throwing shade are doing so of jealousy rather than well thought arguement.
    - zulux 3mo ago
      Yes... and no. DJI/BYD, etc are legit amazing. But entire ghost cities filled with unused condos scream bubble. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underoccupied_developments_in_China https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Underoccupied_developments_in_...
      - grebc 3mo ago
        They’ve been around for ages now, if it hasn’t rocked the boat when their real estate market has been subdued, I’m not sure what will.