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Isn't it realistically only worth talking about SpaceX stock a few years out? The random walk the stock will do after an IPO seems very uninformative.
by Sol- 2mo ago
Isn't it realistically only worth talking about SpaceX stock a few years out? The random walk the stock will do after an IPO seems very uninformative.
- exabrial 2mo ago[flagged]
- postalrat 2mo agoWhy is this only about Elon to some people? It's not only about Elon.
- fnordsensei 2mo agoI have a friend who unironically said "Elon Musk is the most important human who has ever lived"
- qup 2mo agoWho's your pick?
- Auracle 2mo agoI’m not who you replied to but that’s honestly an interesting question. Genghis Khan? Jesus, I suppose? Elon Musk is probably up there, though. You could say people like Henry Ford are on his level, but Elon is certainly more broad in his scope. I think people like them are probably accelerationists, meaning someone else would have done what they’ve done eventually. That could be a long eventually though. It’s hard to compare them to people who shaped history through their actions that nobody else would have done the same way.
- fnordsensei 2mo agoYou'd probably want to be more precise regarding "important for what" as well. And the philosophical angle: if the person hadn't existed, would someone else have slotted in to take their place? Is the impact measured in years/decades, because the overall historical forces were heading in a direction anyway? Is it like trying to say "the most important bacterium in a petri dish"? Without diminishing the impact that Musk has had, I'm fairly certain that Musk isn't the answer. And either way, the intent of saying that Musk is the most important person in history I'm fairly certain wasn't a very grounded decision. I'm sure it was more an expression of reverence and fealty.
- slowin 2mo ago> You could say people like Henry Ford are on his level Since Tesla was started, they've sold ~9.6 million cars. In that same time period, Ford has sold 100 million. Musk is no Henry Ford, it's much more accurate to compare him to P.T. Barnum and Bernie Madoff.
- Auracle 2mo agoSure, but I wasn’t talking about car sales. I brought Ford up because of the first mass-affordable car and the production line stuff, not to compare sales measures. Musk doesn’t just have Tesla. SpaceX is probably a bigger deal for humanity and how we live. Starlink was probably only possible because of SpaceX. We’ll see how some of his other ideas pan out. Ford was, as far as I know, just cars (and manufacturing said cars).
- nemomarx 2mo agoGenghis Khan or Napoleon, maybe? Probably you'd want to pick someone further back but before the modern era you lose details. Musk has made some tech innovations but he hasn't changed the lives of many generations of people yet. I'd only put him at the level of Edison
- fnordsensei 2mo agoWhoever came up with the wheel, maybe? Perhaps someone carrying the original homo sapiens mutations?
- slowin 2mo agoAnyone who's impact is more than just rampant financial fraud. Human's are the product of their environment and mostly just in the right place at the right time, but there's no criteria where you could put Elon Musk in a list of the most important humans of all time.
- iririririr 2mo agobecause the value (or lack of) on most companies he manages are tied to his personality cult. it's the main "product" of those stocks, not always what the company does. see the tsla rewards (hence investments), the board places more resources on musk doing his road show than factories, as proved by hard factual numbers.
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- danso 2mo agoHow often do companies issue a $25B bond the same month that they IPO?
- ImJamal 2mo ago[flagged]
- deleted 2mo ago[deleted]
- dbvn 2mo agoSo don't regurgitate it without checking. You're putting the onus on the person you're talking with
- hightrix 2mo agoIf I found a random comment on this topic on reddit, didn't read the comment, and then just copy pasted it here, would you feel respected? This is the same thing. Stop.
- sethops1 2mo agoNormally I would agree, but SpaceX being forced into the Nasdaq at a 3x multiplier makes this a non-normal situation.
- enopod_ 2mo agoThis bit is not about the stock, it‘s about bonds. They made about $70B (?) in the IPO and now issued bonds for about $25B. This debt is rated at junk level now.
- jeremyjh 2mo agoThis is about a bond issue - a large drop in value there so soon after issue is far more unusual and much worse news.
- rchaud 2mo agoBurton Malkiel's "A Random Walk Down Wall Street" was published in 1973, well before significant changes to financial markets that affect its theoretical randomness. 1. 401Ks were introduced in 1978, making mainstream the concept of automatic payroll deductions that funded an investment account. Trillions more dollars moved into pension funds that might otherwise have been spent elsewhere. 2. Bloomberg Terminals went online in 1982, kicking off an ever-growing information assymetry between investment professionals and retail investors. 3. Electronic trading didn't take off until 1992 with Globex, the Chicago Mercantile Exchange's platform 4. High-frequency trading didn't take off until 2005 or so 5. Finally, the Nasdaq changed its rules in 2026 in a way that directly benefited new IPOs like SpaceX, triggering automated purchases from investment funds, propping up its price beyond what its business fundamentals might have justified.