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> China is also likely rapidly de-carbonizing right now Huh. "China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a

> China is also likely rapidly de-carbonizing right now Huh. "China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole" [1]. So "rapidly de-carbonising" is wrong. But decarbonising per se is correct. [1] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-21-months/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-ha...

AuthAuth 4mo ago
Its only falling per Chinese gov data. The trend since 2019 is for them to downplay emission data and when the next international review comes around we'll have seen that it was actually increasing for the past 3 years and everything will be revised and they will say oh its decreasing starting from now and everyone will forget that the gov stats were lying and take their word that its decreasing.
- defrost 4mo ago
  NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory, 2 (OCO-2) provides the most complete dataset tracking the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), the main driver of climate change. Every day, OCO-2 measures sunlight reflected from Earth’s surface to infer the dry-air column-averaged CO₂ mixing ratio and provides around 100,000 cloud-free observations.
  - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
    …and what do those data say about China’s emissions?
    - defrost 4mo ago
      I'd love to know- ATM I've been on the hop all day and haven't had the time or the access to have a look see .. NASA datasets have less live website presentation this last year. The main point to be landed by that terse comment was that the world isn't merely reliant on CCP statements.
      - deleted 4mo ago
        [deleted]
    - defrost 4mo ago
      There's a multi author decade retrospective report: *Observing CO2 from space*: A Decade of progress from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatories (OCO-2 and OCO-3) ~ https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/toc/10.1002/(ISSN)2169-8996.CO2FROMSPACE https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/toc/10.1002/(ISS... The take away is that the orbiting readings are bedded in reality and don't contradict what's being released as official ground numbers for China (they have ground reading networks that overlap with internationally staffed / instrument supplied networks) (2025) A recent article published in the journal of Earth and Space Science provides a comprehensive evaluation of the latest version of the OCO-2 total column CO2 retrievals against data collected from a global ground-based network known as the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). Comparisons of the v11.1 Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) XCO2 Measurements With GGG2020 TCCON - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024EA003935 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024EA00... ~ https://www.tccon.caltech.edu/ https://www.tccon.caltech.edu/ (2026) We provide the first global comparison between OCO-2/3 with COCCON observations to evaluate the mean differences between the ground- and space-based data sets and identify regions where these differences are most pronounced. Comparing v11.2 OCO-2 and v11 OCO-3 CO Retrievals With Ground-Based COCCON Measurements - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EA004646 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EA00...
jmward01 4mo ago
Chin's emissions rose by 20% from 2017 to 2024 and then flat-lined in 2025 with emissions expected to decline in 2026. That is what decarbonization looks like, the rate of change has swung massively in the right direction. The .3 in 2025 will likely turn into -1.5 in 2026 and more after that. They have embraced alternative energy because it is now making them money and gaining them influence. That trend won't change and they will keep on decarbonizing because it is the easy, profitable, route.
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
  > That is what decarbonization looks like Sure, I gave you that. But you went further. China is not “rapidly de-carbonizing right now.” It’s forecast to start rapidly decarbonizing in the next decade.

AuthAuth 4mo ago

Its only falling per Chinese gov data. The trend since 2019 is for them to downplay emission data and when the next international review comes around we'll have seen that it was actually increasing for the past 3 years and everything will be revised and they will say oh its decreasing starting from now and everyone will forget that the gov stats were lying and take their word that its decreasing.

defrost 4mo ago
NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory, 2 (OCO-2) provides the most complete dataset tracking the concentration of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂), the main driver of climate change. Every day, OCO-2 measures sunlight reflected from Earth’s surface to infer the dry-air column-averaged CO₂ mixing ratio and provides around 100,000 cloud-free observations.
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
  …and what do those data say about China’s emissions?
  - defrost 4mo ago
    I'd love to know- ATM I've been on the hop all day and haven't had the time or the access to have a look see .. NASA datasets have less live website presentation this last year. The main point to be landed by that terse comment was that the world isn't merely reliant on CCP statements.
    - deleted 4mo ago
      [deleted]
  - defrost 4mo ago
    There's a multi author decade retrospective report: *Observing CO2 from space*: A Decade of progress from NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatories (OCO-2 and OCO-3) ~ https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/toc/10.1002/(ISSN)2169-8996.CO2FROMSPACE https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/toc/10.1002/(ISS... The take away is that the orbiting readings are bedded in reality and don't contradict what's being released as official ground numbers for China (they have ground reading networks that overlap with internationally staffed / instrument supplied networks) (2025) A recent article published in the journal of Earth and Space Science provides a comprehensive evaluation of the latest version of the OCO-2 total column CO2 retrievals against data collected from a global ground-based network known as the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). Comparisons of the v11.1 Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) XCO2 Measurements With GGG2020 TCCON - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024EA003935 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2024EA00... ~ https://www.tccon.caltech.edu/ https://www.tccon.caltech.edu/ (2026) We provide the first global comparison between OCO-2/3 with COCCON observations to evaluate the mean differences between the ground- and space-based data sets and identify regions where these differences are most pronounced. Comparing v11.2 OCO-2 and v11 OCO-3 CO Retrievals With Ground-Based COCCON Measurements - https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EA004646 https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2025EA00...

jmward01 4mo ago

Chin's emissions rose by 20% from 2017 to 2024 and then flat-lined in 2025 with emissions expected to decline in 2026. That is what decarbonization looks like, the rate of change has swung massively in the right direction. The .3 in 2025 will likely turn into -1.5 in 2026 and more after that. They have embraced alternative energy because it is now making them money and gaining them influence. That trend won't change and they will keep on decarbonizing because it is the easy, profitable, route.

JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
> That is what decarbonization looks like Sure, I gave you that. But you went further. China is not “rapidly de-carbonizing right now.” It’s forecast to start rapidly decarbonizing in the next decade.