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> If we don’t do something about this... We can't. We're too late. China (13 GT), the US (4.6 GT), and India (3 GT) alone represent 51% of global carbon emiss

> If we don’t do something about this... We can't. We're too late. China (13 GT), the US (4.6 GT), and India (3 GT) alone represent 51% of global carbon emissions - and at least in India's case, it is growing at a rate of 5%. Throw in other large polluters like Russia (2 GT), Indonesia (0.8 GT), Iran (0.8 GT), KSA (0.6 GT), Brazil (0.5 GT), and Vietnam (0.5 GT) whose rate of carbon emissions is growing in the 5-10% range and you see there is no path forward. Any amount of de-carbonization that China or the collective West does is automatically negated by the other countries I listed. At best global carbon emissions stagnate - which by default is going to lead to a 2-3 °C increase in temperatures.

cute_boi 3mo ago
Despite all the pollution, 24% of Indians live below the lower-middle-income poverty line of $4.20 per day...
- alephnerd 3mo ago
  Yes, and? That's why nothing will happen. Developing countries like India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are continuing to expand their emissions as they industrialize. All are expected to have an GDP growth rate in the 6-8% range over the next decade, as will their peers across Asia, so the carbon footprint globally will only increase. Even China's emissions rate aren't decreasing - they're stagnant, which is a good shift, but not enough to turn the tide given how large China's existing carbon footprint is. Edit: can't reply > but they're not going to expand by taking on coal and fossil fuels... India [0], Vietnam [1], and other large industrializing nation in Asia have all doubled down on expanding coal usage over the last 6 months. And that's ignoring increased usage of NatGas and Oil. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-will-use-more-coal-over-next-25-years-report-says-2026-02-10/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-will-use-more-... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vietnam-looks-more-coal-power-plants-iran-war-complicates-lng-plans-2026-07-08/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vietnam-looks-more-c...
  - deleted 3mo ago
    [deleted]
  - peterashford 3mo ago
    Yeah, but they're not going to expand by taking on coal and fossil fuels. The third world is taking on green energy alternatives at a great rate. Not least because it's cheaper and more convenient. These countries can grow without the damage that marked the Western world through the industrial revolution onwards
suzzer99 3mo ago
What is Western Europe's #?
- alephnerd 3mo ago
  1.1 GT combined but shrinking yearly by 1-3%, which isn't enough to make up for the combined increase in carbon emissions from India, ASEAN, MENA, LatAm, and Russia.
  - myaccountonhn 3mo ago
    Are those domestic emissions only? Or do we include emissions from purchasing goods from other countries?
    - alephnerd 3mo ago
      Overall emissions. But the UK and EU (the only large polluters who have even considered carbon tariffs) have largely watered them down - for example, yesterday with the UK increasing it's duty free steel quota for India [0] as Tata Steel owns much of the UK's steel capacity and demand (JLR is a Tata company). Add to that the EU's largest steel maker is owned by India's Mittal family (AcrelorMittal) and European conglomerates like Renault [1] are expanding manufacturing in markets like India, which means using Indian steel. And all of that ignores domestic growth in all those countries. Base GDP growth rates are expected to be in the 6.5-8% for India and ASEAN despite deglobalization because domestic markets are growing. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-14/india-wins-bigger-duty-free-steel-export-quota-in-uk-trade-deal https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-14/india-win... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/renault-plans-boost-india-production-with-more-suvs-exports-2025-07-23/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/renault-plans-boost-indi...
jmward01 3mo ago
You conveniently left the US out of that and the US's role in driving global emissions. China is also likely rapidly de-carbonizing right now just like they rapidly spun up. They are an issue, but the US and its policies have a massive impact on this problem. Same with Europe. Rapidly adopting renewables and not externalizing our emissions to other countries would go a long way. I have seen the argument shift from 'That's a lie. Global warming doesn't exist. Stop pushing regulations for a non-existent problem.' To 'Maybe it does, or there is some human impact but this is all within normal variation and the climate can take some amount of pollution so stop trying to regulate it!' to, I guess the new argument of, 'It's too late so why try? We shouldn't change course because it won't matter so stop trying to regulate the problem away.' It isn't too late. Do something.
- alephnerd 3mo ago
  Both China and the US have similar carbon emission growth rates (0.3-0.5%). And that does nothing to stop the collective 8 GT of carbon emissions coming from India and the other countries I listed with an average emissions increase rate of around 3-5%.
- JumpCrisscross 3mo ago
  > China is also likely rapidly de-carbonizing right now Huh. "China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole" [1]. So "rapidly de-carbonising" is wrong. But decarbonising per se is correct. [1] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-21-months/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-ha...
  - AuthAuth 3mo ago
    Its only falling per Chinese gov data. The trend since 2019 is for them to downplay emission data and when the next international review comes around we'll have seen that it was actually increasing for the past 3 years and everything will be revised and they will say oh its decreasing starting from now and everyone will forget that the gov stats were lying and take their word that its decreasing.
z0ltan 3mo ago
[dead]
tim-projects 3mo ago
A lot if this industrialisation is actually factories making products that are outsourced manufacturing. So it doesn't really make sense to say its China, India's or Vietnam's fault, when most of the products are being shipped to the US and EU and are not necessarily local born companies.

cute_boi 3mo ago

Despite all the pollution, 24% of Indians live below the lower-middle-income poverty line of $4.20 per day...

alephnerd 3mo ago
Yes, and? That's why nothing will happen. Developing countries like India, Indonesia, and Vietnam are continuing to expand their emissions as they industrialize. All are expected to have an GDP growth rate in the 6-8% range over the next decade, as will their peers across Asia, so the carbon footprint globally will only increase. Even China's emissions rate aren't decreasing - they're stagnant, which is a good shift, but not enough to turn the tide given how large China's existing carbon footprint is. Edit: can't reply > but they're not going to expand by taking on coal and fossil fuels... India [0], Vietnam [1], and other large industrializing nation in Asia have all doubled down on expanding coal usage over the last 6 months. And that's ignoring increased usage of NatGas and Oil. [0] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-will-use-more-coal-over-next-25-years-report-says-2026-02-10/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/india-will-use-more-... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vietnam-looks-more-coal-power-plants-iran-war-complicates-lng-plans-2026-07-08/ https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/vietnam-looks-more-c...
- deleted 3mo ago
  [deleted]
- peterashford 3mo ago
  Yeah, but they're not going to expand by taking on coal and fossil fuels. The third world is taking on green energy alternatives at a great rate. Not least because it's cheaper and more convenient. These countries can grow without the damage that marked the Western world through the industrial revolution onwards

suzzer99 3mo ago

What is Western Europe's #?

alephnerd 3mo ago
1.1 GT combined but shrinking yearly by 1-3%, which isn't enough to make up for the combined increase in carbon emissions from India, ASEAN, MENA, LatAm, and Russia.
- myaccountonhn 3mo ago
  Are those domestic emissions only? Or do we include emissions from purchasing goods from other countries?
  - alephnerd 3mo ago
    Overall emissions. But the UK and EU (the only large polluters who have even considered carbon tariffs) have largely watered them down - for example, yesterday with the UK increasing it's duty free steel quota for India [0] as Tata Steel owns much of the UK's steel capacity and demand (JLR is a Tata company). Add to that the EU's largest steel maker is owned by India's Mittal family (AcrelorMittal) and European conglomerates like Renault [1] are expanding manufacturing in markets like India, which means using Indian steel. And all of that ignores domestic growth in all those countries. Base GDP growth rates are expected to be in the 6.5-8% for India and ASEAN despite deglobalization because domestic markets are growing. [0] - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-14/india-wins-bigger-duty-free-steel-export-quota-in-uk-trade-deal https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-07-14/india-win... [1] - https://www.reuters.com/world/india/renault-plans-boost-india-production-with-more-suvs-exports-2025-07-23/ https://www.reuters.com/world/india/renault-plans-boost-indi...

jmward01 3mo ago

You conveniently left the US out of that and the US's role in driving global emissions. China is also likely rapidly de-carbonizing right now just like they rapidly spun up. They are an issue, but the US and its policies have a massive impact on this problem. Same with Europe. Rapidly adopting renewables and not externalizing our emissions to other countries would go a long way. I have seen the argument shift from 'That's a lie. Global warming doesn't exist. Stop pushing regulations for a non-existent problem.' To 'Maybe it does, or there is some human impact but this is all within normal variation and the climate can take some amount of pollution so stop trying to regulate it!' to, I guess the new argument of, 'It's too late so why try? We shouldn't change course because it won't matter so stop trying to regulate the problem away.' It isn't too late. Do something.

alephnerd 3mo ago
Both China and the US have similar carbon emission growth rates (0.3-0.5%). And that does nothing to stop the collective 8 GT of carbon emissions coming from India and the other countries I listed with an average emissions increase rate of around 3-5%.
JumpCrisscross 3mo ago
> China is also likely rapidly de-carbonizing right now Huh. "China’s carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, likely securing a decline of 0.3% for the full year as a whole" [1]. So "rapidly de-carbonising" is wrong. But decarbonising per se is correct. [1] https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-have-now-been-flat-or-falling-for-21-months/ https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-chinas-co2-emissions-ha...
- AuthAuth 3mo ago
  Its only falling per Chinese gov data. The trend since 2019 is for them to downplay emission data and when the next international review comes around we'll have seen that it was actually increasing for the past 3 years and everything will be revised and they will say oh its decreasing starting from now and everyone will forget that the gov stats were lying and take their word that its decreasing.

z0ltan 3mo ago

[dead]

tim-projects 3mo ago

A lot if this industrialisation is actually factories making products that are outsourced manufacturing. So it doesn't really make sense to say its China, India's or Vietnam's fault, when most of the products are being shipped to the US and EU and are not necessarily local born companies.