Those are announcements, not released integrated models. There are two Tier 1 platforms today. Meta, Google and XAi are formidable Tier 1.5 place, any one of

Those are announcements, not released integrated models. There are two Tier 1 platforms today. Meta, Google and XAi are formidable Tier 1.5 place, any one of which could rise to the fore. My belief is that it will be Google and that probably only one of them will keep up in the long run. There is a 'breaking point' when you start to get past 4-ish players - it really does start to introduce competitive pressures. Your second point about Tier 2 substitution is valid, but a few things: 1) Tier 1 models are not a 'luxury good' - that has a different economic definition. They are for most applications today actually just the quality, rational choice. 2) Substitution will have different effects for different people, and you're right that AI for many tasks will be commiditized. All of the profits in Mobile Phones go to Apple even though they are not the biggest player. Almost all of the profits in Silicon go to the leading edge chips - even though there are a zillion fabs that make legacy chips.