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This vision of the world feels like it was dreamed up by a science fiction author. I understand Android is growing. But, I can not help but think he is answerin

by fumar 14y ago

This vision of the world feels like it was dreamed up by a science fiction author. I understand Android is growing. But, I can not help but think he is answering the wrong question. Honestly, I do not know what the right question is. It reads like a narrow view of the market, global economy, and fads. I look at my very young cousins. They are growing up with iPads and iPhones not Google products. (observations)

kumarm 14y ago
Apple losing market share significantly in both India and China where pretty much Android has closer 90% marketshare.
- vvhn 14y ago
  In India at least, Apple/iOS never had anything resembling meaningful marketshare. Android has replaced Symbian and whatever's left of blackberry as the ubiquitous platform powering phones from INR 5000 ($95 ) to INR 35000 ($625) not "taken away marketshare from Apple" since they didn't have any begin with.
- fumar 14y ago
  Good Point, by shear population, they dictate a lot. I will think about this some more. One global company becoming a leader, by a large margin, is something I dislike. Too much power in the hands of one piece of software.
drivebyacct2 14y ago
Why do people point out these anecdotes as if they refute real numbers and trends? India and China aren't the only places where Apple is losing (relative) mobile marketshare.
dannyr 14y ago
Actually you are the one with the narrow view of the market. Look beyond your young cousins. The rest of the world are using Android devices not Apple. Android phones has 80+% market share in a number of countries in Europe. Worldwide, Android tablets are slowly gaining market share from the IPad. In Africa, Android phones cost less than $100. In a few years, it might be under $50. A lot of poor people will not be able to afford a PC but a cheap phone is probably the only computer they'll ever have.
- Encosia 14y ago
  It's important to keep in mind that Android is completely subsidized by advertising revenue. Making money on mobile advertising is still troublesome enough in any market, but selling advertising targeted toward "a lot of poor people not able to afford a PC" is even less profitable. As someone who develops for the web and mobile web, I'm glad to see good browsers in the hands of more users, but it's important to keep in mind what makes that possible in the first place. If Android dominates in markets where no one can afford paid apps and no advertisers spend significant money, while Apple continues to hold a lock on the more lucrative demographics, Android could actually be in trouble overall.
  - drivebyacct2 14y ago
    I've never seen an ad on my phone except when using the browser.
    - Encosia 14y ago
      That's not great news for Android's sustainability, no?
      - drivebyacct2 14y ago
        No? How could that be a logical conclusion given current data? Also, did you honestly think that Android just randomly shows ads or something?
        Encosia 14y ago
        There's no need to be like that. I own multiple Android devices myself. Just the fact that so many Android devices have been sold isn't very convincing. Lots of MySpace accounts were opened and lots of RIM devices were sold in years past too. Android is free. If it doesn't drive revenue to Google through over avenues, it's not sustainable, and the only revenue stream Google excels at is advertising. Sure, there's Play, but a) Apple has stated that their 30% is just barely above break even; so even taking a cut of paid apps is probably not enough to sustain an entire platform and b) Android users overall are well known not to be very spendy when it comes to apps. If Android isn't a successful advertising vector for Google in the long run, I think you have to seriously question how secure its future will be.
zmmmmm 14y ago
> I look at my very young cousins. They are growing up with iPads and iPhones not Google products. (observations) This is true, but I think you are looking too short term. Here in every Christmas catalogue there are 3 pages of iPads and iPad accessories. But you know what is on the front page of most of the catalogues? a $99 Android tablet. The tablet probably sucks, but I think this is the turning point. Parents are not going to spend $300+ on tablets for their kids when the "same thing" is next to it for $99. These are going to flood into living rooms, then schools, and all other instutions. The iPad has a temporary monopoly in these places now but it's not going to last. In a year's time the components in the $99 tablets will be good enough that the experience will actually be good and then it's all over. Apple's fatal flaw is that their business model depends on those high margin. The often quoted statistic that Apple makes nearly all the profits in the mobile industry is as much a weakness as a strength. Apple needs those margins, their business model depends on it. They can't survive in a low-margin world but they also can't prevent it. They have to retreat and hide every time in the luxury / premium segment of the market where their business model works, but the vast majority of us do not dwell. To survive in the mass market, Apple needs to create revolutionary hit after revolutionary hit - and they've done amazingly well at that so far, but you have to ask how many times they can pull it off. Eventually they are going to falter and then their whole model crumbles.
- cageface 14y ago
  Exactly. Apple's vertical integration gave them a big first mover advantage in this market but their obsession with control is going to kill them as the hardware is commoditized. Bezos is 100% right about this - content is king in mobile in the long run.
  - watmough 14y ago
    My Nexus 4 is bigger and better than my iPhone 4s, in everything except absolute hardware quality, though it's not far behind. Jellybean is fantastic, and provides a stable glitch-free experience, with significantly better performance in key apps such as Exchange integration that are a key part of my daily usage.
- 14y ago

by fumar 14y ago

kumarm 14y ago

Apple losing market share significantly in both India and China where pretty much Android has closer 90% marketshare.

vvhn 14y ago
In India at least, Apple/iOS never had anything resembling meaningful marketshare. Android has replaced Symbian and whatever's left of blackberry as the ubiquitous platform powering phones from INR 5000 ($95 ) to INR 35000 ($625) not "taken away marketshare from Apple" since they didn't have any begin with.
fumar 14y ago
Good Point, by shear population, they dictate a lot. I will think about this some more. One global company becoming a leader, by a large margin, is something I dislike. Too much power in the hands of one piece of software.

drivebyacct2 14y ago

Why do people point out these anecdotes as if they refute real numbers and trends? India and China aren't the only places where Apple is losing (relative) mobile marketshare.

dannyr 14y ago

Actually you are the one with the narrow view of the market. Look beyond your young cousins. The rest of the world are using Android devices not Apple. Android phones has 80+% market share in a number of countries in Europe. Worldwide, Android tablets are slowly gaining market share from the IPad. In Africa, Android phones cost less than $100. In a few years, it might be under $50. A lot of poor people will not be able to afford a PC but a cheap phone is probably the only computer they'll ever have.

Encosia 14y ago
It's important to keep in mind that Android is completely subsidized by advertising revenue. Making money on mobile advertising is still troublesome enough in any market, but selling advertising targeted toward "a lot of poor people not able to afford a PC" is even less profitable. As someone who develops for the web and mobile web, I'm glad to see good browsers in the hands of more users, but it's important to keep in mind what makes that possible in the first place. If Android dominates in markets where no one can afford paid apps and no advertisers spend significant money, while Apple continues to hold a lock on the more lucrative demographics, Android could actually be in trouble overall.
- drivebyacct2 14y ago
  I've never seen an ad on my phone except when using the browser.
  - Encosia 14y ago
    That's not great news for Android's sustainability, no?
    - drivebyacct2 14y ago
      No? How could that be a logical conclusion given current data? Also, did you honestly think that Android just randomly shows ads or something?
      - Encosia 14y ago
        There's no need to be like that. I own multiple Android devices myself. Just the fact that so many Android devices have been sold isn't very convincing. Lots of MySpace accounts were opened and lots of RIM devices were sold in years past too. Android is free. If it doesn't drive revenue to Google through over avenues, it's not sustainable, and the only revenue stream Google excels at is advertising. Sure, there's Play, but a) Apple has stated that their 30% is just barely above break even; so even taking a cut of paid apps is probably not enough to sustain an entire platform and b) Android users overall are well known not to be very spendy when it comes to apps. If Android isn't a successful advertising vector for Google in the long run, I think you have to seriously question how secure its future will be.

zmmmmm 14y ago

> I look at my very young cousins. They are growing up with iPads and iPhones not Google products. (observations) This is true, but I think you are looking too short term. Here in every Christmas catalogue there are 3 pages of iPads and iPad accessories. But you know what is on the front page of most of the catalogues? a $99 Android tablet. The tablet probably sucks, but I think this is the turning point. Parents are not going to spend $300+ on tablets for their kids when the "same thing" is next to it for $99. These are going to flood into living rooms, then schools, and all other instutions. The iPad has a temporary monopoly in these places now but it's not going to last. In a year's time the components in the $99 tablets will be good enough that the experience will actually be good and then it's all over. Apple's fatal flaw is that their business model depends on those high margin. The often quoted statistic that Apple makes nearly all the profits in the mobile industry is as much a weakness as a strength. Apple needs those margins, their business model depends on it. They can't survive in a low-margin world but they also can't prevent it. They have to retreat and hide every time in the luxury / premium segment of the market where their business model works, but the vast majority of us do not dwell. To survive in the mass market, Apple needs to create revolutionary hit after revolutionary hit - and they've done amazingly well at that so far, but you have to ask how many times they can pull it off. Eventually they are going to falter and then their whole model crumbles.

cageface 14y ago
Exactly. Apple's vertical integration gave them a big first mover advantage in this market but their obsession with control is going to kill them as the hardware is commoditized. Bezos is 100% right about this - content is king in mobile in the long run.
- watmough 14y ago
  My Nexus 4 is bigger and better than my iPhone 4s, in everything except absolute hardware quality, though it's not far behind. Jellybean is fantastic, and provides a stable glitch-free experience, with significantly better performance in key apps such as Exchange integration that are a key part of my daily usage.
14y ago