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It’s such an odd time investment wise… We have a blooming oil war that could take chunks of the global economy with it, booming and teetering credit levels thr

• sph 3mo ago
  How I view the market: Short term: high volatility and uncertainty, feels more like gambling at a casino Medium term: the world is too unstable, best to hold cash Long term: dollar cost averaging and time in the market always win so depending how long your horizon is, it’s a good time as any to invest Longer term: we all die
  • cmiles8 3mo ago
    Good advice. Ironically most long term folks that just buy low cost index funds and take a nap outperform most of the market stressing out daily on their next move. That’s the cruel reality of investing. When you factor in the opportunity cost of all that stress and managing an active portfolio the percentage of successful active portfolio managers likely falls down to single digits. Invest early, invest consistently and often in up or down markets, and the math says you will do very well.
    • sph 3mo ago
      Though I keep wondering if the ‘invest consistently whether the market goes up or down’ defeats the point of a stock market in the first place. People effectively keep throwing money at mediocre or failing endeavours, which magnifies any structural problem, and everything seems to keep going up whether it’s good news or bad news, until the bottom falls out. My reading might be wrong, but since 2020 there is no bad news that seems to faze the market by an iota.
      • blitzar 3mo ago
        Always bet on black at the roulette table, over and over and over again.
      • pfortuny 3mo ago
        Well, that is what markets do: behave. Rationally or not. The 1929 panic was also irrational but it happened. There is no way to solve that. Panics happen and bubbles too, and in the meantime, very long term investments tend to grow (in average), as long as the economy works as expected (improving in average, long-term). Of course, catastrophes are not impossible (the Black Death, the French Revolution, World Wars...).
      • baal80spam 3mo ago
        > My reading might be wrong, but since 2020 there is no bad news that seems to faze the market by an iota. Or maybe - because it's the bad news that sells - there is much more of the good (or neutral) news that outvalue the bad news, that is just unknown to you?
    • WJW 3mo ago
      It's almost the inverse of a cruel reality? Just stick it all in low cost index funds and go to the beach. You'll do as good or better than 99% of actively invested funds. That's not cruel at all, that's actually a pretty comfy reality.
    • plomme 3mo ago
      This has been my investment philosophy as well, but I'm starting to realize that this is forgetting that "past performance does not guarantee future results". It only works when the index goes up, and I don't see any fundamental reason that should be true on the long term. I don't know of a better alternative though.
  • abc123abc123 3mo ago
    You do, your children will live. Or, if you don't have children, your non-profit does not. I wish people would stop using this "we all die" slogan when it comes to their financial lives, and think a bit about the people who will be left after you retire.
    • cindyllm 3mo ago
      [dead]
    • inigyou 3mo ago
      I hate that having children is apparently the only purpose anyone has in life because I don't have children or a purpose in life and I'm pretty sure I would be even more depressed if I had children.
      • abc123abc123 3mo ago
        Note that I am not arguing that children is the purpose in life for everyone. For some it is, for others it is not. I believe that the majority of child bearers are "on program" driven by their biological imperatives. I believe that among the voluntary non-children people (of which I am one) there's plenty of values, goals, hopes and aspirations. In fact, for me, life is so rich that that is why I do not want children. There's billions of people all over the planet to carry the burden for me. Sure, if we were in an extinction scenario, I might reconsider, but we're far, far from it. So while I continue to enjoy life and full freedom, I'll let the people who are "on program" deal with the poop and worry for their offspring. That does not, however, mean I do not have to care about people. If anything, the fact that I do not have children, gives me the opportunity to care _more_ about people in general, than the people who are busy with raising children. Hence my idea about a non-profit, that will outlast me for some time.
        • inigyou 3mo ago
          Yeah, I used to feel life was rich too, and then I very suddenly became aware that it was finite and anything I could possibly do is just leading towards the same fixed point ending. I think mentally healthy humans have ways to avoid thinking about this.
  • nerdralph 3mo ago
    Instead of cash, I like debt like mortgage funds. High single-digit returns with low volatility.
  • AnimalMuppet 3mo ago
    If short term is high volatility and the medium term is too unstable, why is the VIX as low as it is? Am I missing something, or is the VIX mispriced?
  • CuriouslyC 3mo ago
    Holding cash is a terrible strategy, the US dollar is going to get devalued by the end of the Orange Troll's term due to money printing/bond market repression/trade hijinks. We're in the pump of a pump and dump by the richest people in the world, who are trying to engineer exit liquidity in a way that doesn't immediately crash the market. They're going to cycle their holdings several times before things go to shit to avoid the brunt of it, we'll be able to see the wave on the horizon. I don't think just the SpaceX dumping will trigger a broader loss of confidence, but Anthropic + OpenAI dumping post IPO will ripple through to the neoclouds, which will ripple through to the semis, and probably tank things. In the short term (pre AI IPO) the market is volatile but pretty safe IMO, so just trade techically. In the medium-long term I'd hold a mix of mining/industrial equipment/etc stocks in Euros, and Chinese AI/renewables stocks in Renminbi. The Euro stocks are safer and a significant portion of their increased valuation will come from currency shifts, and the Chinese stocks are riskier but have a big upside and are likely to benefit from Renminbi revaluation as China onshores "finishing"/final assembly of products (which much of the world is going to push them to do).
  • bryanlarsen 3mo ago
    > always win That's not true. It's only been true on American stock markets, and we only have ~100 years of data. Many other major stock markets in the world have had ~20 year periods where you would have been better off with your money in bonds than in stocks. I think the average world stock market is a much better predictor of American stock markets over the next 100 years than past performance of American stock markets. The last 100 years have been exceptional for America vs the world -- it seems very likely that the next 100 years won't be. The most extreme example is Germany 1914. If you would have invested in the German stock market in 1914 it would have taken you 100 years to break even. I'm not saying that American stock markets will be that bad, but it's an example that disproves the thesis that long term stock markets always win.
• nadermx 3mo ago
  Na. Its just the status quoe with diffrent charectors, same game. Jobs/musk. Altman/gates. Etc
• cmiles8 3mo ago
  There’s always money to be made in a bubble implosion. The challenge is there’s a very thin line between major bank and losing your shirt. Because of that most long terms smart investors just sit it out which is likely why you see Berkshire sitting on treasury bills.
• roenxi 3mo ago
  Yeah but that is likely the normal state of things - high status people are human too, we're all shocked. And on Twitter comment - mass media has been a tool of propaganda since shortly after it was invented. Twitter is substantially better than something like a newspaper or TV channel. The difference in the modern era is the internet is such a robust communication channel that the ultra-wealthy can't pay money to have the negative stories suppressed any more. If anything the current crop seem to be unusually well behaved by historical standards because there are so many eyes on them. Scandals like the whole Epstein thing or #metoo would simply have vanished into silence before the 2000s unless they were being used to lever out someone uncooperative for political purposes.
  • HPsquared 3mo ago
    The information control meta has evolved from suppression to distraction.
• BLKNSLVR 3mo ago
  The thing I worry about is: what happens when an actual set of adults get back into the White House? That could well be the trigger for the crash of all crashes because they might actually bring some reality pins with them, which are the antithesis of the growing, in size and number, fantasy balloons of hot-air the current cough leadership cough is facilitating.
  • iso1631 3mo ago
    Which will trigger even more wealth transfer to the top .1%, which the 99% will blame on the administration, and put the corrupt lot back in a few years later Eventually though the world moves on and China takes over
    • glimshe 3mo ago
      I think China isn't exactly a good example of corruption-free administration...
      • BLKNSLVR 3mo ago
        I took their implication as China is essentially next in line to be the dominant superpower. (I would say that, within that implication, it would be understood that corruption is not a problem that is being solved in that transfer of power)
    • hylaride 3mo ago
      China's got its own set of economic problems that they're masking. Their domestic economy is stagnant and they're trying to keep factories pumping out stuff. Since their domestic economy isn't biting, they're flooding the world with exports. This isn't sustainable, especially if and probably when the rest of the world decides that they're done with government backed Chinese companies killing theirs (and you're starting to see that).
      • mschuster91 3mo ago
        > This isn't sustainable, especially if and probably when the rest of the world decides that they're done with government backed Chinese companies killing theirs (and you're starting to see that). Well... China's foreign currency reserves are practically infinite and the rest of the world knows they can't push back on China too hard or lose a lot of important imports. For Europe for example, India and China together make 80% of the foundational ingredients for medicine [1]. Our supply chains are gone, even if we wanted to, it would take years to have fabs ready that could produce the domestic demand for stuff as simple but vital such as painkillers and antibiotics. [1] https://www.diepresse.com/17552998/80-prozent-der-wirkstoffe-kommen-aus-indien-und-china https://www.diepresse.com/17552998/80-prozent-der-wirkstoffe...
• deleted 3mo ago
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• wongarsu 3mo ago
  In a world where Tesla has stayed at "severely overvalued" stock prices for about a decade, with occasional crashes to just "overvalued", I'm not so sure the big AI companies really need returns that justify their stocks. Sam Altman and Dario Amodei are both in their own ways trying to capture that same lighting in a bottle where the company is evaluated solely on the CEO's vision
  • bryanlarsen 3mo ago
    In 2022, Tesla had a P/E of 34 and a growth rate of 50%.
    • jauco 3mo ago
      But it’s 2026 now
      • bryanlarsen 3mo ago
        It's a reply to OP's "for about a decade". In 2022 we still had ZIRP, so a P/E of 34 was relatively low. (Interest rates are E/P for cash).
        • jauco 3mo ago
          Ah sorry. I thought it was just saying tesla wasn’t overvalued.
  • christophilus 3mo ago
    Yeah. This is the whole “market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent” thing. I think there’s almost always a plausible bearish case to be made. Hence: permabears.
  • abirch 3mo ago
    I feel like this is dot com 2.0. The dot com's valuations eventually were proven to be true, only way too early. With investing Timing is everything, if you invest in Pets.com you lost, if you invested in chewy.com you won. If you invested in Broadcast.com you lost, if you invested in YouTube.com you won. AI is going to transform things but these current prices are crazy.
• ghtbircshotbe 3mo ago
  I'll believe Musk is a trillionaire when the free float of spcx is 95%, not 5%
  • bryanlarsen 3mo ago
    He's not even a trillionaire with a free float of 5%. Now that SPCX has almost returned to IPO prices, Elon is "only" worth $0.9T.
• xtiansimon 3mo ago
  > “It feels like gambling on whether they’re more incompetent or successfully corrupt.” What you say has a ring to it. A good idea held in tension—provided ‘incompetence’ is the true opposite extreme. Though it’s difficult to see the picture clearly, because to all _appearances_ Musk is doing well. US Culture collectively believes incompetence will not succeed for long, and this undermines my assessment. “Twitter is now maybe better understood as a market manipulation device.” And there’s the obfuscation. If you can manipulate at large scale and your followers somehow profit by following you, then it’s not competence but “confidence”. It’s all a game and our group is waiting for their turn, their opportunity to profit, get a great tip, win big.
• enoint 3mo ago
  This is their 14th straight quarter of piling cash. Will the same article be written on their 15th, and 16th?
  • yetihehe 3mo ago
    Fall was upon a remote reservation when the Indian tribe asked their new Chief what the coming winter was going to be like. The modern day Chief had never been taught the secrets of the ancients. When he looked at the sky he couldn't tell what the winter was going to be like. Better safe than sorry, he said to himself and told his tribe that the winter was indeed expected to be cold and that the members of the village should stock up on firewood to be prepared. After several days, our modern Chief got an idea. He went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is the coming winter going to be cold?" "It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold," the meteorologist at the weather service responded. So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more firewood in order to be prepared. A week later he called the National Weather Service again. "Does it still look like it is going to be a very cold winter?" "Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "It's going to be a very cold winter." The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every scrap of firewood they could find. Two weeks later the Chief called the National Weather Service again. "Are you absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?" "Absolutely," the man replied. "It's looking more and more like it is going to be one of the coldest winters ever." "How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked. The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy."
  • AnimalMuppet 3mo ago
    They are one of the best value investors ever to do it. If they see no value, that is actually information about the state of the market.
• ryandvm 3mo ago
  > on the other, whatever shady crap these guys do after it all goes ‘boom’ to save their wallets is only gonna reward people in the market Yup. That's kind of my feeling. Are we in a bubble? Obviously. But the people who have the most to lose have never been more intertwined with the rule makers and have never been so shameless about it. "Don't bet against the house" has never been more appropriate. We may well be on the verge of the 2nd Great Depression, but you can be damn sure that the last ones to lose will be the billionaires hanging out in the new ballroom. We'll be burning poor people for warmth before they allow the asset prices to collapse.