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It's a fair point about the 'ceilings' but I'm not quite making that assumption. I think a few things are going to happen: 1) The Open Weights never really fu

It's a fair point about the 'ceilings' but I'm not quite making that assumption. I think a few things are going to happen: 1) The Open Weights never really fully catch up, because there's too much Engineering and integration going now. It's way more than 'weights' 2) The Commodity Chinese models never quite catch up for the same reason every other product they make does not catch up - while they will shine in some areas, it won't land fully. 3) Horizontal integration, supply chains, availability, SLA, security, branding, regulatory requirements - all of this will add up to something competitively maintainable. Can you name a product category that has truly hit a ceiling? Cars, computers, phones, airplanes ... always seems to be a way to nudge forward. Good point though.

bluefirebrand 3mo ago
> Can you name a product category that has truly hit a ceiling I think basically every product category has hit ceilings by now, honestly. Do you think vacuum cleaners are significantly better at vacuuming than 10 years ago? Not really. But they pivoted to doing autonomous vacuums instead. The actual vacuum tech doesn't seem like it's getting much better though? Same with a lot of appliances. Fridges aren't really better at keeping food cold than they were 30 years ago, are they? They just have "smart home" stuff now, and they are probably much more energy efficient I guess you can look at that as "not reaching a ceiling" as an overall appliance but the actual discrete technology is not changing or improving much imo
- bluegatty 3mo ago
  Vacuums are nothing like what they were in the decades past - Dyson has transformed them entirely - maybe not 'every decade' but they are evolving. Go and use a fridge from 40 years ago and compare to a modern one - granted, their essential function has not really improved that much. They were much more durable before, but rudimentary. Most product categories in tech have evolved, and it's why there are leaders in most categories.
- jurgenburgen 3mo ago
  > Fridges aren't really better at keeping food cold than they were 30 years ago, are they? Fridges have made huge leaps in energy efficiency, they’re easily 3-4 times better at cooling your food.
  - bluefirebrand 3mo ago
    That's what I'm saying though. Energy efficiency is nice, it's a good improvement, but from an end user perspective the 30 year old fridge still keeps your food just as cold. If you were from 2025 and got trapped in the 1970s and needed to keep some milk from going sour for a day, you wouldn't be thinking "damn if only these old 1970s fridges worked more efficiently. I could easily accomplish this goal with a modern fridge!" The 1970s fridge would do just fine
    - bluegatty 3mo ago
      You think that a fridge is about 'keeping food cold'? It's about ease of access, price, noise, convenience, durability, features. My folks have this fancy 2 door thing, perfectly quiet, makes the best ice you can imagine, it's hidden into the cuppboards, it's energy efficient, has these crisper things, you can see in and reach around easy, lots of space. It's a better product.
hnfong 3mo ago
I think it's not really much of "hitting a ceiling", but more like plateauing, with growth and improvement slowed down so much that it seems to stagnate. It's all relative. In computing we're used to Moore's law driving most of the innovation (including this AI boom, which was at least partially due to availability of high powered GPUs), if improvements become less "exponential" and more "linear" it would feel like stagnation. Right now in AI, we're talking about leaps of capabilities in months. When improvements come along every other decade, it's not "hitting a ceiling" but effectively it's plateauing and stagnating compared to this period of high growth. For example, Chinese models are said to be roughly 6 months behind. If this remains constant and frontier AI models gets a break through every couple years, this isn't "hitting a ceiling" but it would erode away the competitive edge they have over the Chinese models.

bluefirebrand 3mo ago

> Can you name a product category that has truly hit a ceiling I think basically every product category has hit ceilings by now, honestly. Do you think vacuum cleaners are significantly better at vacuuming than 10 years ago? Not really. But they pivoted to doing autonomous vacuums instead. The actual vacuum tech doesn't seem like it's getting much better though? Same with a lot of appliances. Fridges aren't really better at keeping food cold than they were 30 years ago, are they? They just have "smart home" stuff now, and they are probably much more energy efficient I guess you can look at that as "not reaching a ceiling" as an overall appliance but the actual discrete technology is not changing or improving much imo

bluegatty 3mo ago
Vacuums are nothing like what they were in the decades past - Dyson has transformed them entirely - maybe not 'every decade' but they are evolving. Go and use a fridge from 40 years ago and compare to a modern one - granted, their essential function has not really improved that much. They were much more durable before, but rudimentary. Most product categories in tech have evolved, and it's why there are leaders in most categories.
jurgenburgen 3mo ago
> Fridges aren't really better at keeping food cold than they were 30 years ago, are they? Fridges have made huge leaps in energy efficiency, they’re easily 3-4 times better at cooling your food.
- bluefirebrand 3mo ago
  That's what I'm saying though. Energy efficiency is nice, it's a good improvement, but from an end user perspective the 30 year old fridge still keeps your food just as cold. If you were from 2025 and got trapped in the 1970s and needed to keep some milk from going sour for a day, you wouldn't be thinking "damn if only these old 1970s fridges worked more efficiently. I could easily accomplish this goal with a modern fridge!" The 1970s fridge would do just fine
  - bluegatty 3mo ago
    You think that a fridge is about 'keeping food cold'? It's about ease of access, price, noise, convenience, durability, features. My folks have this fancy 2 door thing, perfectly quiet, makes the best ice you can imagine, it's hidden into the cuppboards, it's energy efficient, has these crisper things, you can see in and reach around easy, lots of space. It's a better product.

hnfong 3mo ago

I think it's not really much of "hitting a ceiling", but more like plateauing, with growth and improvement slowed down so much that it seems to stagnate. It's all relative. In computing we're used to Moore's law driving most of the innovation (including this AI boom, which was at least partially due to availability of high powered GPUs), if improvements become less "exponential" and more "linear" it would feel like stagnation. Right now in AI, we're talking about leaps of capabilities in months. When improvements come along every other decade, it's not "hitting a ceiling" but effectively it's plateauing and stagnating compared to this period of high growth. For example, Chinese models are said to be roughly 6 months behind. If this remains constant and frontier AI models gets a break through every couple years, this isn't "hitting a ceiling" but it would erode away the competitive edge they have over the Chinese models.