I wonder if their projections of load are/aren't turning out as planned, and where they might be being safe to not have as many outages, when they don't happen,

I wonder if their projections of load are/aren't turning out as planned, and where they might be being safe to not have as many outages, when they don't happen, they are left with extra capacity. Or discovering different parts of the year have less demand than expected (like summer holidays). This is not to discount anything you're saying, only additional factors.