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And our robots still look far from capable of changing bike tires...

• ericpauley 3mo ago
  That's not OP's contention though; it's that models are incapable of even surfacing sufficient information. This doesn't pass the smell test. To wit, here is ChatGPT's "superintelligent" answer: https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6a52b4a322bc81919308ec864a0cc056 https://chatgpt.com/s/t_6a52b4a322bc81919308ec864a0cc056 Seems like a perfectly cromulent description by which a beginner could probably change a tire, perhaps with a few follow-ups to understand what certain components are.
  • jamilton 3mo ago
    I read his contention as “the people who wrote AI 2040 are nerds who are so ungrounded from physical reality they wouldn’t even know how to change a bike tire if given instructions”. Which I think is also wrong but has a genuine criticism in it.
    • deleted 3mo ago
      [deleted]
    • pas 3mo ago
      sure, they have strong bay area aura, but an ad hominem is not very useful criticism of the actual arguments for AI safety (and longtermism, and against x-risks in general).
• saturn8601 3mo ago
  Might be premature to say that...Elon is essentially betting all of Tesla on the fact that a robot can change a bike tire soon, if he is wrong he might have to come up with some new BS to keep surviving, but maybe he is partially right and a robot ends up being able to change some bike tires sometimes.