5 ms·

> That's called "luck". I think it's actually called statistics. In 2026, it would seem I'm statistically less likely to get arrested for a social media post i

> That's called "luck". I think it's actually called statistics. In 2026, it would seem I'm statistically less likely to get arrested for a social media post in the US than the UK. I mean it's not like the reason is hidden. Arrests typically require crossing into narrow unprotected categories under the First Amendment: true threats (Virginia v. Black standard), incitement to imminent lawless action (Brandenburg v. Ohio), or specific crimes like credible harassment, cyberstalking, or extortion. It's quite a bit different than the UK's hate speech laws and the comparative result makes complete sense.

BeetleB 3mo ago
Luck is statistical :-)
- aliasxneo 3mo ago
  Then we agree that it's not unreasonable for me to feel confident I am unlikely to get arrested in the US over a social media post than in the UK, which is the whole point I was making all along.
  - BeetleB 3mo ago
    For you, yes. But not for some other folks in the US. If you want to invoke statistics, I'm sure 99% of UK citizens are confident they won't get arrested over a social media post either. They probably worry about it a lot less than you would if you moved there.
    - aliasxneo 3mo ago
      Well, sure, I tend to ground my feelings about matters in statistics. If others don't do that, then it makes total sense they might feel worried about it. But I mean there's entire groups of people saying, quite loudly, that they don't like the social media arrests and how they feel draconian. You don't really need to "guess" about a sentiment. Clearly enough people are concerned that it's being talked about at a national level. I'm not aware of anything similar, or to the same degree, happening in the US. https://web.archive.org/web/20251231145954/https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/police-make-30-arrests-a-day-for-offensive-online-messages-zbv886tqf https://web.archive.org/web/20251231145954/https://www.theti... https://freespeechunion.org/archive/daily-mail-investigation-exposes-number-of-people-arrested-for-offensive-social-media-posts https://freespeechunion.org/archive/daily-mail-investigation... Also, see E-petition 728715, which had 190,000 signatures from concerned citizens. Your 99% statistic is clearly going against the data.
      - BeetleB 3mo ago
        190,000 is less than 1%, and anything from The Daily Mail is suspect anyway. You seem to be trying to knock down a straw man, as I never claimed it was worse in the US.
        aliasxneo 3mo ago
        No, was just pushing back at the idea that the social media arrest isn't a concern to 99% of the British population. Typically 190,000 is considered the floor because there's a wide margin of people either too busy or too scared to sign their signature. Same is true in the U.S. But sure, obviously we're never going to agree here. I've provided my logic/evidence and you're not convinced. Fair enough. I'm content to let others review the same evidence and form their own opinions on the matter.
gib444 3mo ago
Got a link for those UK stats? Last time I went looking, even a Parliamentary report expressed that the stats are difficult to find, because the crime is eg malicious communications which covers a lot of acts. Your links in another comment do not contain nearly enough detail to support the argument you're attempting to make. The 2 laws mentioned therein are broad and could cover many acts. It's like a newspaper looking at the statistics for murder and creating a story that murder by asphyxiation with a pillow is on the rise. n.b. I am not disagreeing that the police are policing social media. It's obviously an easy target. But we should be careful of newspapers pushing narratives, by asking for precise data
- aliasxneo 3mo ago
  Well, that presents a problem when the news organizations that did investigate are just outright dismissed. The Times did a FOI request and are the ones who published the 12,183 figure which ultimately demonstrated the massive increase year over year. The fact that there were signed petitions, two reports from supposably untrustworthy news organizations (that I could fine, there's probably more), and that it's been discussed at the national level multiple times, will either convince someone that it's 100% fabricated if they lean one way politically or that it's true if they lean the other way. More and more I've found that it has nothing to do with data anymore. People will just ignore whatever isn't suitable to their beliefs.
  - gib444 3mo ago
    You don't have the data on arrests specifically over social media posts, because they don't exist, so you chose to dismiss my reply and attempt an ad hominem. I am not leaning one way or the other 100%, as indicated in my earlier reply. You are just reading what you want to read I agree when there is not precise data available, inferences can be made from other data, but you must not state things like "statistically less likely to get arrested for a social media post in the US than the UK" when you don't have the actual, relevant statistics. If you wish to argue with statistics, you must present them. And they will be cross examined, as is right and proper.

BeetleB 3mo ago

Luck is statistical :-)

aliasxneo 3mo ago
Then we agree that it's not unreasonable for me to feel confident I am unlikely to get arrested in the US over a social media post than in the UK, which is the whole point I was making all along.
- BeetleB 3mo ago
  For you, yes. But not for some other folks in the US. If you want to invoke statistics, I'm sure 99% of UK citizens are confident they won't get arrested over a social media post either. They probably worry about it a lot less than you would if you moved there.
  - aliasxneo 3mo ago
    Well, sure, I tend to ground my feelings about matters in statistics. If others don't do that, then it makes total sense they might feel worried about it. But I mean there's entire groups of people saying, quite loudly, that they don't like the social media arrests and how they feel draconian. You don't really need to "guess" about a sentiment. Clearly enough people are concerned that it's being talked about at a national level. I'm not aware of anything similar, or to the same degree, happening in the US. https://web.archive.org/web/20251231145954/https://www.thetimes.com/uk/crime/article/police-make-30-arrests-a-day-for-offensive-online-messages-zbv886tqf https://web.archive.org/web/20251231145954/https://www.theti... https://freespeechunion.org/archive/daily-mail-investigation-exposes-number-of-people-arrested-for-offensive-social-media-posts https://freespeechunion.org/archive/daily-mail-investigation... Also, see E-petition 728715, which had 190,000 signatures from concerned citizens. Your 99% statistic is clearly going against the data.
    - BeetleB 3mo ago
      190,000 is less than 1%, and anything from The Daily Mail is suspect anyway. You seem to be trying to knock down a straw man, as I never claimed it was worse in the US.
      - aliasxneo 3mo ago
        No, was just pushing back at the idea that the social media arrest isn't a concern to 99% of the British population. Typically 190,000 is considered the floor because there's a wide margin of people either too busy or too scared to sign their signature. Same is true in the U.S. But sure, obviously we're never going to agree here. I've provided my logic/evidence and you're not convinced. Fair enough. I'm content to let others review the same evidence and form their own opinions on the matter.

gib444 3mo ago

Got a link for those UK stats? Last time I went looking, even a Parliamentary report expressed that the stats are difficult to find, because the crime is eg malicious communications which covers a lot of acts. Your links in another comment do not contain nearly enough detail to support the argument you're attempting to make. The 2 laws mentioned therein are broad and could cover many acts. It's like a newspaper looking at the statistics for murder and creating a story that murder by asphyxiation with a pillow is on the rise. n.b. I am not disagreeing that the police are policing social media. It's obviously an easy target. But we should be careful of newspapers pushing narratives, by asking for precise data

aliasxneo 3mo ago
Well, that presents a problem when the news organizations that did investigate are just outright dismissed. The Times did a FOI request and are the ones who published the 12,183 figure which ultimately demonstrated the massive increase year over year. The fact that there were signed petitions, two reports from supposably untrustworthy news organizations (that I could fine, there's probably more), and that it's been discussed at the national level multiple times, will either convince someone that it's 100% fabricated if they lean one way politically or that it's true if they lean the other way. More and more I've found that it has nothing to do with data anymore. People will just ignore whatever isn't suitable to their beliefs.
- gib444 3mo ago
  You don't have the data on arrests specifically over social media posts, because they don't exist, so you chose to dismiss my reply and attempt an ad hominem. I am not leaning one way or the other 100%, as indicated in my earlier reply. You are just reading what you want to read I agree when there is not precise data available, inferences can be made from other data, but you must not state things like "statistically less likely to get arrested for a social media post in the US than the UK" when you don't have the actual, relevant statistics. If you wish to argue with statistics, you must present them. And they will be cross examined, as is right and proper.