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Even the most optimistic Russian does not think Russia will ever get beyond https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya

by brabel 3mo ago

Even the most optimistic Russian does not think Russia will ever get beyond https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiya which is not much more than Russia currently occupies. You really think they will eventually march over Ukraine on to Warsaw?? That’s as likely as the exiled Chinese government in Taiwan taking over China.

XorNot 3mo ago
Ukraine is keeping Russia where it is at a tremendous expenditure of people and treasure. Their success in the conflict is not guaranteed.
- deleted 3mo ago
  [deleted]
- brabel 3mo ago
  Their success is already impossible: you cannot lose half of your population and suffer millions of casualties and still consider that a success in the end, even if Ukraine was to retake most of the territory it has lost, which seems less and less likely as the years pass. Wars of this kind never have winners. Russia also lost too many soldiers to celebrate anything.
  - liamwire 3mo ago
    I couldn't disagree more. In a fight for existential survival, repelling an invader at any cost constitutes a win. It may almost be pyrrhic in the end, but deterrence is invaluable. Not to lose sight of the very real cost, down to every man and family destroyed. Many may even argue that life under subjugation is still at least life. But many more have walked the walk into the fire, in defiance of that notion. I see no way of arguing the opinions of the living outweigh those of the dead when it comes to opinions on what's worth fighting for. I would add that this isn't advocating for blindly and endlessly throwing meat into the meat grinder. But to the extent that a country tells you, not from the top down but from the men on the very frontlines of war, that they're willing to die, to win... I'd say believe them when they say they understand the costs, and yet consider it a win not in spite of those costs, but in the face of them, defiantly.
    - brabel 3mo ago
      There is a lot of resistance from the Ukrainians to going to the frontlines as we can see in the endless videos of people fighting the government “recruiters” who come to forcibly take them and the large stream of people fleeing the country. It’s hard to tell if the will to continue fight comes from the people or the government, it’s not nearly as clear as you imply. In my view, it’s a huge crime against life for this war to continue. A compromise is the only solution. From both sides of course. But it seems both sides still consider the continuing fight and death toll is worthwhile and preferable to the compromises they would need to make to end the craziness. We will look back at this time as a huge failure of Europe and the US to manage to first prevent Russia aggression, and then even worse , prolonging the conflict for several years by simply failing to provide what was needed to defeat Russia while providing just enough for the Russians to advance only very slowly and at a high cost - the worst possible outcome since Ukraine still loses a huge amount of territory and more importantly, people, while Russia loses a much smaller proportion of its population while achieving many of its goals and proving to the West that it can challenge its political position near its borders even if war is the only way to do so.
      - esseph 3mo ago
        > it’s a huge crime against life for this war to continue. A compromise is the only solution. This is a known Russian talking point. Begone with thee. You act like this war is just happening in Ukraine. Ask UK, France, Germany, US, Poland, etc how that is going inside those countries. Ask North Korea about their troops.
nostrademons 3mo ago
When the war started, it certainly looked like it. Russian soldiers were in Kyiv at one point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv_(2022) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv_(2022) It was the failure of Russian logistics and the triumph of Ukrainian logistics that beat them back.
- ericmay 3mo ago
  Credit certainly that Russian logistics failed, but was it Ukrainian logistics that beat them back or was it Ukrainian logistics and heroism alongside American and British support, intelligence, and 24/7 airlifts of critical weapons and equipment that beat them back?
  - yostrovs 3mo ago
    There were no critical weapons supplied to Ukraine until after the Russians retreated from Kiyv.
    - esseph 3mo ago
      This is easily proven false. See my above comment about both the UK SOF operations and the US flights of weapons. The info is well documented and sourced.
  - troupo 3mo ago
    > and 24/7 airlifts of critical weapons and equipment that beat them back? There were no 24/7 airlifts of criticql weapons and equipment at any point in this war. Ukraine was expected to fall quickly, and any help it needed started arriving very reluctantly, very slowly, in small batches stretched over months and years of deliveries much much later.
    - ericmay 3mo ago
      That’s wrong. The US and UK airlifted anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles among other things to Ukraine while telling the world Russia was about to invade (which Europeans refused to believe). You may be confusing European support and their lack of it (remember the famous time Germany just sent 45,000 old helmets?) with how the United States and United Kingdom helped. For example this was published in April 2022. Some of this equipment had already been delivered to Ukraine via airlift before the war even started: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2992414/fact-sheet-us-security-assistance-to-ukraine/ https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2992414/fa...
esseph 3mo ago
There have been rumblings of a Russian attack on Poland for awhile. https://youtu.be/NVnbtbtgu2Y?is=2lMFmF2kQ0SXqIw0 https://youtu.be/NVnbtbtgu2Y?is=2lMFmF2kQ0SXqIw0 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-planning-attack-on-poland-test-nato-resolve-us-warns/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-pla... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provocation-baltic-states-poland https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provoca... Polish news: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/09/8043294/ https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/09/8043294/ --- The head of Poland's Foreign Ministry noted that he cannot comment on intelligence data but stressed that Russia has long been waging a hybrid war against Poland and France. He said this involves cyberattacks on state systems, attempts to gather information on critical infrastructure using shadow fleet vessels, arson, sabotage on railways and drone attacks. Sikorski also recalled that before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia allegedly prepared false flag provocations to create a pretext for starting the war. At the time, American intelligence warnings helped thwart those plans. "Today you must believe us – not just me, but other countries too – that we have credible information that the Russians are planning something again. The purpose of these warnings is to discourage them from carrying out these provocations," he said. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, for his part, confirmed that Paris is also recording increased Russian hybrid activity.
- brabel 3mo ago
  Poland is delivering 90% of NATO’s support to Ukraine. France is one of the staunchest enemies of Russia. In this situation I just don’t understand what people expect Russia to do?? Sit and accept while those countries work hard to kill its soldiers and destroy its economy? I am surprised Russia hasn’t bombed transport depots in Poland that are known to be used for weapons delivery to Ukraine yet, but that seems very likely to happen in the next few months. However that is not the same as Russia invading Poland! Those reports are talking about attacks, no one in their right mind is expecting an invasion, which is what my comment was referring to.
  - troupo 3mo ago
    > situation I just don’t understand what people expect Russia to do?? Sit and accept while those countries work hard to kill its soldiers and destroy its economy Oh no, the poor innocent Russia that is currently in year 5 of its totally innocent blameless war it's waging. "Hitler did nothing wrong" vibes. All Russia has to do to stop its soldiers from dying and its economy from being destroyed is to get the fuck out of Ukraine.

by brabel 3mo ago

XorNot 3mo ago

Ukraine is keeping Russia where it is at a tremendous expenditure of people and treasure. Their success in the conflict is not guaranteed.

deleted 3mo ago
[deleted]
brabel 3mo ago
Their success is already impossible: you cannot lose half of your population and suffer millions of casualties and still consider that a success in the end, even if Ukraine was to retake most of the territory it has lost, which seems less and less likely as the years pass. Wars of this kind never have winners. Russia also lost too many soldiers to celebrate anything.
- liamwire 3mo ago
  I couldn't disagree more. In a fight for existential survival, repelling an invader at any cost constitutes a win. It may almost be pyrrhic in the end, but deterrence is invaluable. Not to lose sight of the very real cost, down to every man and family destroyed. Many may even argue that life under subjugation is still at least life. But many more have walked the walk into the fire, in defiance of that notion. I see no way of arguing the opinions of the living outweigh those of the dead when it comes to opinions on what's worth fighting for. I would add that this isn't advocating for blindly and endlessly throwing meat into the meat grinder. But to the extent that a country tells you, not from the top down but from the men on the very frontlines of war, that they're willing to die, to win... I'd say believe them when they say they understand the costs, and yet consider it a win not in spite of those costs, but in the face of them, defiantly.
  - brabel 3mo ago
    There is a lot of resistance from the Ukrainians to going to the frontlines as we can see in the endless videos of people fighting the government “recruiters” who come to forcibly take them and the large stream of people fleeing the country. It’s hard to tell if the will to continue fight comes from the people or the government, it’s not nearly as clear as you imply. In my view, it’s a huge crime against life for this war to continue. A compromise is the only solution. From both sides of course. But it seems both sides still consider the continuing fight and death toll is worthwhile and preferable to the compromises they would need to make to end the craziness. We will look back at this time as a huge failure of Europe and the US to manage to first prevent Russia aggression, and then even worse , prolonging the conflict for several years by simply failing to provide what was needed to defeat Russia while providing just enough for the Russians to advance only very slowly and at a high cost - the worst possible outcome since Ukraine still loses a huge amount of territory and more importantly, people, while Russia loses a much smaller proportion of its population while achieving many of its goals and proving to the West that it can challenge its political position near its borders even if war is the only way to do so.
    - esseph 3mo ago
      > it’s a huge crime against life for this war to continue. A compromise is the only solution. This is a known Russian talking point. Begone with thee. You act like this war is just happening in Ukraine. Ask UK, France, Germany, US, Poland, etc how that is going inside those countries. Ask North Korea about their troops.

nostrademons 3mo ago

When the war started, it certainly looked like it. Russian soldiers were in Kyiv at one point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv_(2022) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Kyiv_(2022) It was the failure of Russian logistics and the triumph of Ukrainian logistics that beat them back.

ericmay 3mo ago
Credit certainly that Russian logistics failed, but was it Ukrainian logistics that beat them back or was it Ukrainian logistics and heroism alongside American and British support, intelligence, and 24/7 airlifts of critical weapons and equipment that beat them back?
- yostrovs 3mo ago
  There were no critical weapons supplied to Ukraine until after the Russians retreated from Kiyv.
  - esseph 3mo ago
    This is easily proven false. See my above comment about both the UK SOF operations and the US flights of weapons. The info is well documented and sourced.
- troupo 3mo ago
  > and 24/7 airlifts of critical weapons and equipment that beat them back? There were no 24/7 airlifts of criticql weapons and equipment at any point in this war. Ukraine was expected to fall quickly, and any help it needed started arriving very reluctantly, very slowly, in small batches stretched over months and years of deliveries much much later.
  - ericmay 3mo ago
    That’s wrong. The US and UK airlifted anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles among other things to Ukraine while telling the world Russia was about to invade (which Europeans refused to believe). You may be confusing European support and their lack of it (remember the famous time Germany just sent 45,000 old helmets?) with how the United States and United Kingdom helped. For example this was published in April 2022. Some of this equipment had already been delivered to Ukraine via airlift before the war even started: https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2992414/fact-sheet-us-security-assistance-to-ukraine/ https://www.war.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2992414/fa...

esseph 3mo ago

There have been rumblings of a Russian attack on Poland for awhile. https://youtu.be/NVnbtbtgu2Y?is=2lMFmF2kQ0SXqIw0 https://youtu.be/NVnbtbtgu2Y?is=2lMFmF2kQ0SXqIw0 https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-planning-attack-on-poland-test-nato-resolve-us-warns/ https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2026/07/03/russia-pla... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provocation-baltic-states-poland https://www.theguardian.com/world/2026/jun/26/russia-provoca... Polish news: https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/09/8043294/ https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2026/07/09/8043294/ --- The head of Poland's Foreign Ministry noted that he cannot comment on intelligence data but stressed that Russia has long been waging a hybrid war against Poland and France. He said this involves cyberattacks on state systems, attempts to gather information on critical infrastructure using shadow fleet vessels, arson, sabotage on railways and drone attacks. Sikorski also recalled that before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Russia allegedly prepared false flag provocations to create a pretext for starting the war. At the time, American intelligence warnings helped thwart those plans. "Today you must believe us – not just me, but other countries too – that we have credible information that the Russians are planning something again. The purpose of these warnings is to discourage them from carrying out these provocations," he said. French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot, for his part, confirmed that Paris is also recording increased Russian hybrid activity.

brabel 3mo ago
Poland is delivering 90% of NATO’s support to Ukraine. France is one of the staunchest enemies of Russia. In this situation I just don’t understand what people expect Russia to do?? Sit and accept while those countries work hard to kill its soldiers and destroy its economy? I am surprised Russia hasn’t bombed transport depots in Poland that are known to be used for weapons delivery to Ukraine yet, but that seems very likely to happen in the next few months. However that is not the same as Russia invading Poland! Those reports are talking about attacks, no one in their right mind is expecting an invasion, which is what my comment was referring to.
- troupo 3mo ago
  > situation I just don’t understand what people expect Russia to do?? Sit and accept while those countries work hard to kill its soldiers and destroy its economy Oh no, the poor innocent Russia that is currently in year 5 of its totally innocent blameless war it's waging. "Hitler did nothing wrong" vibes. All Russia has to do to stop its soldiers from dying and its economy from being destroyed is to get the fuck out of Ukraine.