3 ms·
You are waaaaaay too optimistic about RAM prices. This is not a one-quarter crisis and you need to settle in for the long haul: the era of "hardware always come
by Analemma_ 3mo ago
You are waaaaaay too optimistic about RAM prices. This is not a one-quarter crisis and you need to settle in for the long haul: the era of "hardware always comes down in price" is over, definitely for the next 3 years and possibly the next 5-8. The new DRAM fabs aren't even coming online until 2028 and there's not much reason to think they'll make much of a dent in the supply-demand mismatch even when they do.
- Legend2440 3mo agoDRAM prices have been highly cyclical for a long time. They'll come down again.
- draygonia 3mo agoFrom what I'm reading on the shortage, they are very aware of this fact (prices being highly cyclical) and they're trying to avoid overproducing RAM to avoid the oversupply glut. That's probably going to hurt the chance of prices coming down anytime soon.
- organsnyder 3mo agoPrices will come down when the stupid money isn't all going to datacenter buildouts.
- mips_avatar 3mo agoMaybe micron/samsung/sk won't expand enough, but trust me the Chinese will. It might mean we don't get access to HBM for a while, but you can do a lot with infinite cheap DDR5
- mips_avatar 3mo agoThe marginal cost of making RAM is zero and it's clear to everyone that there's near infinite demand, so the fab capacity is coming. Maybe the high end won't expand fast enough, but you can do a lot with Chinese ddr5.