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The revenue is in Starlink, sure, but the value is in the launcher. The reason payloads are expensive is because launch was expensive. If you're paying $10k/k
by laughing_man 3mo ago
The revenue is in Starlink, sure, but the value is in the launcher.
The reason payloads are expensive is because launch was expensive. If you're paying $10k/kg to launch your satellite you have to make sure it has a 99.9999999% chance of working when it gets to orbit. But if you lived in a world where you pay $10/kg for that same launch and could schedule another launch the next day to replace a payload that didn't work, your satellite would be much cheaper because you could afford to have it fail.
It would also be cheaper because you could afford more standardization. You could afford to use a standard bus, for example, even if it makes your satellite heavier than it needs to be.
There's a virtuous circle here. Cheaper launches mean cheaper satellites, and cheaper satellites mean more launches as previously un-economic activities start to pencil out.
- jltsiren 3mo agoPayloads are expensive, because high-value businesses can outbid low-value ones. By the time there is enough launch capacity for low-value businesses, manufacturing improvements should have made launch vehicles even cheaper. Or you could look at this from another perspective. The services enabled by infrastructure must be more valuable than the infrastructure itself to justify the investment.
- laughing_man 3mo agoI don't see a reason to believe that wouldn't be the case.
- Arnt 3mo ago$10/kg is what DHL charges me for shipping things 100km. Are you saying that SpaceX intends to approach that price for delivery to orbit?
- laughing_man 3mo agoThat's the goal, yes. I doubt they'll actually get there, but they may get to $100.