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> I met an AI superforecaster startup founder who told me his AI had turned $35 into $2 million on Kalshi over seven months Ok… assuming you can’t use that $2m

> I met an AI superforecaster startup founder who told me his AI had turned $35 into $2 million on Kalshi over seven months Ok… assuming you can’t use that $2mil for some reason, simply take out a $10k line of credit and you’ll have $571 million in 7 months. If you have the 2mil, congrats you’re 7 months away from $114B - you’re now one of the top 20 richest people in the world. If this was truely the money printing machine they are saying it is, they would not be talking about it.

Tenoke 4mo ago
1. The liquidity is not infinite to compound that easily. 2. The alpha dries up with more players, even in the year or whatever since that founder started.
gwern 4mo ago
You're attacking a strawman. No one is claiming that you can pull off that multiplier at arbitrary amounts arbitrary amounts of times. And 7 months is plenty of calendar time for those arbitrages to disappear, given the attention on the area and the rapid rate of development. (Warren Buffett can't pull off his early trades now either, doesn't mean he was stupid or grifting in taking early investment.)
- kennywinker 4mo ago
  So you agree this stuff isn’t useful?
  - gwern 4mo ago
    Wow, I obviously do not agree with that, and since you're trying to put words in my mouth and false dichotomies, I think that's the last question of yours I will be answering.
    - kennywinker 4mo ago
      I was specifically responding to your comment by pointing out that you’re describing something that is valuable now but will be of less and less value as the market adapts. If you think that’s a good investment, that’s your business, of course.
ffitch 4mo ago
from the article: I asked the guy who turned $35 into $2 million in seven months on Kalshi whether, in another seven months, he would be able to 100,000x his money a second time to $200 billion. Unsurprisingly, he said no - there’s only so much easy money on Kalshi, and his AI had already taken it all (also, other people with similar AIs are starting to fight him for it!)
- kennywinker 4mo ago
  So this stuff is only as useful with a steady supply of people making less intelligent bets. You don’t have to sell me on it being bullshit, but you are.
  - ffitch 4mo ago
    The article is not about this stuff being useful for making money off of prediction markets.
chucksmash 4mo ago
Any given trade also has a capacity. A mispricing opportunity can only absorb so much investment before it's no longer mispriced. A particular trade that can 2x $20k won't be able to do the same for $20 billion. It's why RenTech capped their Medallion Fund and closed it to outside investment. If there's only a billion dollars sloshing around on Kalshi, you can't expect to put $1 trillion into bets and take $2 trillion out.
- kennywinker 4mo ago
  Stock market’s got plenty to spare
  - deleted 4mo ago
    [deleted]
- danaris 4mo ago
  But if these "superforecasters" can forecast just about anything accurately—which seems to be the claim—then they're not limited to any one claim, or even a small subset of them. They can place bets on everything and expect to win most of the time. This doesn't pass the smell test.
deleted 4mo ago
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Tenoke 4mo ago

1. The liquidity is not infinite to compound that easily. 2. The alpha dries up with more players, even in the year or whatever since that founder started.

gwern 4mo ago

You're attacking a strawman. No one is claiming that you can pull off that multiplier at arbitrary amounts arbitrary amounts of times. And 7 months is plenty of calendar time for those arbitrages to disappear, given the attention on the area and the rapid rate of development. (Warren Buffett can't pull off his early trades now either, doesn't mean he was stupid or grifting in taking early investment.)

kennywinker 4mo ago
So you agree this stuff isn’t useful?
- gwern 4mo ago
  Wow, I obviously do not agree with that, and since you're trying to put words in my mouth and false dichotomies, I think that's the last question of yours I will be answering.
  - kennywinker 4mo ago
    I was specifically responding to your comment by pointing out that you’re describing something that is valuable now but will be of less and less value as the market adapts. If you think that’s a good investment, that’s your business, of course.

ffitch 4mo ago

from the article: I asked the guy who turned $35 into $2 million in seven months on Kalshi whether, in another seven months, he would be able to 100,000x his money a second time to $200 billion. Unsurprisingly, he said no - there’s only so much easy money on Kalshi, and his AI had already taken it all (also, other people with similar AIs are starting to fight him for it!)

kennywinker 4mo ago
So this stuff is only as useful with a steady supply of people making less intelligent bets. You don’t have to sell me on it being bullshit, but you are.
- ffitch 4mo ago
  The article is not about this stuff being useful for making money off of prediction markets.

chucksmash 4mo ago

Any given trade also has a capacity. A mispricing opportunity can only absorb so much investment before it's no longer mispriced. A particular trade that can 2x $20k won't be able to do the same for $20 billion. It's why RenTech capped their Medallion Fund and closed it to outside investment. If there's only a billion dollars sloshing around on Kalshi, you can't expect to put $1 trillion into bets and take $2 trillion out.

kennywinker 4mo ago
Stock market’s got plenty to spare
- deleted 4mo ago
  [deleted]
danaris 4mo ago
But if these "superforecasters" can forecast just about anything accurately—which seems to be the claim—then they're not limited to any one claim, or even a small subset of them. They can place bets on everything and expect to win most of the time. This doesn't pass the smell test.

deleted 4mo ago

[deleted]