3 ms·
> I don't really think this is a serious risk. This is a once-in-a-million-years kind of event. Perhaps the last event was one million years ago and we are now
by throw0101a 3mo ago
> I don't really think this is a serious risk. This is a once-in-a-million-years kind of event.
Perhaps the last event was one million years ago and we are now (proverbially) 'due'.
> The gambler's fallacy, also known as the Monte Carlo fallacy or the fallacy of the maturity of chances, is the belief that an independent and equally probable outcome which happened less frequently than expected is more likely to happen in the future (or vice versa).
* https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler%27s_fallacy
It's like people who say "it sure is strange that we had a 'once-in-a-century flood' two years in a row": that's not how odds/probabilities work.
* https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/we-had-a-100-year-flood-two-years-a-row-how-can-be https://www.usgs.gov/faqs/we-had-a-100-year-flood-two-years-...
- KeplerBoy 3mo ago> It's like people who say "it sure is strange that we had a 'once-in-a-century flood' two years in a row": that's not how odds/probabilities work. That usually refers to climate change and the fact that the odds have changed against our favor.
- ajam1507 3mo ago> Perhaps the last event was one million years ago and we are now (proverbially) 'due'. Ironically this is a great example of the gambler's fallacy.
- throw0101a 3mo agoHence the use of "proverbially" and "due" being in quotation marks.