25 ms·

Fable 5 will be genuinely weak compared to what's coming, I mean, we need to remember this is kinda the beginning still, we will genuinely reach a point where a

Fable 5 will be genuinely weak compared to what's coming, I mean, we need to remember this is kinda the beginning still, we will genuinely reach a point where all benchmarks will score 99.9%. Think Opus 10, GPT-10... :) Also Fable 5 isn't "that impressive" as a lot of people have that kind of intelligence since 6 months+ by using combo of models and loops (I scored better on HLE than gpt-5.5 xhigh last January with some good tooling and 6x the cost), but for a lambda Claude Code user, I can see why it looks that good.

Chance-Device 4mo ago
Are you using it or are you just going off benchmarks?
- pixel_popping 4mo ago
  Yeah, saturating 8 Claude Max 20 subscriptions a day, what about you?
PestoDiRucola 4mo ago
What makes you think that models will improve with the same pace that they have been improving in the past few years?
- petra 4mo ago
  A few reasons: -2.5 years is a pretty short time for a new tech development, even if it fails eventually - usually when a new tech is introduced, the biggest gains happen when the environment is changed to fit it. That takes time: libraries, api's, verification tooling, rl environments, skilling users, etc. - possibility of orders of magnitude hardware cost reduction - Optical. Analog. Rram. Many others. Something will work. And internal improvements in the model architecture. And there's scaling in reasoning time.
  - pixel_popping 4mo ago
    Exactly, I genuinely believe we are far off from future capabilities, as in models will practically "zeroshot" most use cases without mistakes and it's likely we will directly develop in some sort of language made specifically for AI that is then translated into WASM or the likes which will drastically improve accuracy, there is no point using "human languages" when we will not even be checking codebases (not even filetree) anymore.
    - petra 4mo ago
      IDK. i played with Fable. It's coding abilities are really impressive.

Chance-Device 4mo ago

Are you using it or are you just going off benchmarks?

pixel_popping 4mo ago
Yeah, saturating 8 Claude Max 20 subscriptions a day, what about you?

PestoDiRucola 4mo ago

What makes you think that models will improve with the same pace that they have been improving in the past few years?

petra 4mo ago
A few reasons: -2.5 years is a pretty short time for a new tech development, even if it fails eventually - usually when a new tech is introduced, the biggest gains happen when the environment is changed to fit it. That takes time: libraries, api's, verification tooling, rl environments, skilling users, etc. - possibility of orders of magnitude hardware cost reduction - Optical. Analog. Rram. Many others. Something will work. And internal improvements in the model architecture. And there's scaling in reasoning time.
- pixel_popping 4mo ago
  Exactly, I genuinely believe we are far off from future capabilities, as in models will practically "zeroshot" most use cases without mistakes and it's likely we will directly develop in some sort of language made specifically for AI that is then translated into WASM or the likes which will drastically improve accuracy, there is no point using "human languages" when we will not even be checking codebases (not even filetree) anymore.
  - petra 4mo ago
    IDK. i played with Fable. It's coding abilities are really impressive.