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Tesla Motors is in great shape. I've been following the company for a while and recently drove the Model S. Amazing car in almost every way. What struck me w
by dave1619 14y ago
Tesla Motors is in great shape. I've been following the company for a while and recently drove the Model S. Amazing car in almost every way. What struck me was that it's not an incremental improvement but really a radical (might I say disruptive) improvement in terms of ride quality (super quiet), handling (low center of gravity with skateboard powertrain), electronics (17" touchscreen), cargo space (heard of the frunk?), reliability (electric cars have far less moving parts), and store experience (Tesla retail stores are a way better customer experience than a typical car dealership). It's difficult to drive a Model S and NOT say that you've driven the future.
The Model S is so good that all they need to do is make it into a SUV (Model X) and they'll have the coolest high-end SUV (coming 2014).
Then, they just need to make the Model S smaller (GenIII Bluestar) and then they'll have the best small luxury sport sedan on the market (ie., BMW 3 series, Lexus IS, Audi A4 market). Elon Musk has said they're going after the BMW 3 Series market with the GenIII car, and he's determined to make a best car in that market. Just like the Model S is better than a BMW 5 Series in most regards, the GenIII will be better than the BMW 3 Series in most regards. I know it might be difficult for many people to accept that (especially since the BMW 3 Series is legendary) but Tesla's got all the right pieces and has proven they can do it with the Model S. Again, they just need to shrink the Model S and make it more affordable.
But GenIII is slated for 2015 at the earliest and it takes a while to dominate a car segment even after you have a stellar car. I expect Tesla to become increasingly competitive (in terms of # sales) to the BMW 3 series by 2020 and perhaps dominant by 2025 (if not earlier).
Elon Musk has repeatedly said that Tesla Motors is not a typical car company but rather a technology company that will innovate at a blistering pace. As long as they continue to do that, they'll be fine.
- yid 14y agoGreat comment, thank you. I'd just like to add that the "frunk" isn't new -- I've been stashing my gym bag in my Porsche 911's frunk for years (it's a rear-engined car). Edit: While I absolutely live the Model S, I can assure you that exceeding stalwarts of the 5-series category, like the BMW M5, will not be as easy to disrupt as the market the Model S aims for.
- dave1619 14y agoYeah, but maybe the frunk + full trunk is new?
- yid 14y agoTouche :)
- shiftpgdn 14y agoThe MKII MR2 turbo had both a trunk and a frunk. Not to the capacity of the Tesla, but still.
- bengl3rt 14y agoI assume the NA model was the same way? Or just the turbo?
- sliverstorm 14y agoI believe it was the same.
- sliverstorm 14y agoAs did, I believe, the MKI and MKIII. None of the rear trunks could hold much more than a golf bag, of course, but anyway.
- jlgreco 14y agoDoes Porsche call it a "frunk" too? I can't stand that word, it's cute, but awful. Sounds like a word I might use to describe a particularly pungent cheese.
- CamperBob2 14y agoAgreed, it's almost as annoying a word as "blog," and look how that one caught on. :(
- 14y ago
- el_cuadrado 14y agoThis is assuming BMW et all stop any innovation. But they won't. They will offer an electric vehicle the moment it becomes feasible (and I am sorry but 200 miles range is still an exciting and expensive toy).
- w1ntermute 14y agoThe range on the top-of-the-line Model S is 300, not 200, miles. And with Superchargers, it's no longer just a toy.
- omni 14y agoIn the very limited areas where there is currently Supercharger coverage. Also, 30 minutes for a charge isn't exactly fast.
- calinet6 14y agoPatience, patience.
- sukuriant 14y agoIt's fast enough for most needs. If you're traveling across country, a 30 minute break every 5 hours might be just what the doctor ordered. If you break apart your eating times just right, you can have it coincide with eating times. If charge time were reduced to 30 minutes in the general case for electric cars, I'd be much, much more likely to consider them a viable alternative to my current car. We just need the infrastructure. Honestly, I believe that the car that's going to win the transition race is going to be the one that acquires the infrastructure the most quickly, be it electric fast-charging stations, hydrogen refineries/pumping stations, electrically-charged gel stations, or whatever thing we end up thinking up.
- Tuna-Fish 14y agoHow about the car that can use the infrastructure that already exists? All this talk about new transportation fuels imho always sidesteps the fact that gasoline will never run out. Petroleum will, but producing gasoline out of other sources is something that we already know how to do, and have done in industrial scale in the past. Fischer-Tropsch is cost-effective from coal at some point below $150 oil price. If you want to be carbon neutral, you just have to use a carbon feedstock that fills from the atmosphere, and a carbon neutral heat source. A hydrogen economy is a complete hoax. If you want to make your fuel synthetically, hydrogen has practically no advantages over synthetic gasoline.
- temp453463343 14y agoI think it's a bit of a shame that they're playing the game on the same terms as the other car companies. You're absolutely right that each model seems to target a particular "class" of cars. I think a little more adventurous designs would have been great. For instance I think it would have been perfect if they made a Tesla land-yacht in the style of 70's cars. Big, heavy (lots of room for extra batteries), nice cushy suspension, lots of power, a super comfortable ride. Disclaimer: proud owner of a 86 Crown Vic.
- jlgreco 14y agoI don't know what their European sales look like right now, but I suspect making a land-yacht would limit their potential audience a bit. ;)
- temp453463343 14y agoI was always under the impression that Europeans love land yachts. (like those kids in Sweden that collect old US cars) It was just the crazy fuel prices that stopped them from buying them.
- jlgreco 14y agoMy understanding is that large cars are difficult on many of their roads, particularly in some towns/cities.
- temp453463343 14y agogood point. There are some crazy narrow streets. The bus drivers are insane. Like half of a foot of clearance between the wheels and the curb on each side.
- stcredzero 14y agoI've seen 1/2 foot of clearance between the bus and passengers. (With a hedge and wall just on the other side of the passengers.)
- hmexx 14y agoOne thing in that list I'm pretty sure they won't deliver is superior reliability. You can argue the tech has some reliability advantages, but I'm guessing it will take a decade or so to match the incumbents in all-around reliability, seeing as that's the hardest thing to get right as a newcomer. Still, can't wait to play around with the cool tech!
- jaggederest 14y agoThe sheer moving part reduction going from a full IC engine to an AC induction motor is crazy. You're looking at maybe a hundred moving parts, minimum, down to one. And that's just in the prime mover itself, let alone the entire power train.
- cclark20 14y agoI wonder if car companies are going to be looking at lessons from the tech world specifically Apple and Microsoft and think: Ok maybe these guys ARE the new apple of car companies ... We don't want to be the microsoft of car companies so let's innovate instead of dying. I know innovation isn't exactly at the heart of the car companies but these guys can't be living in a total vacuum. Every single publication in the world is likening Tesla to Apple. The significance and parallels can't be lost on them. I would be really surprised if BMW & Lexus & Audi don't come out with their own competitive answer. Unless it's already too late?
- notdrunkatall 14y agoI agree 100%, which is why I doubled down on TSLA a couple of weeks ago. I've told a few people to buy, but they don't seem to want to listen. It seems obvious to me...
- loceng 14y agoIn the mean time, while waiting for them to release more affordable vehicles, they can increase the number of Supercharger stations, further work on future innovation - and then they will see hockey-stick growth.