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Given the state of corruption in politics, I think Anthropic and OpenAI will likely bribe … oh wait I mean “lobby” … for bans on open source. Otherwise their im

Given the state of corruption in politics, I think Anthropic and OpenAI will likely bribe … oh wait I mean “lobby” … for bans on open source. Otherwise their imaginary trillion dollar valuations make no sense.

stanislavb 3mo ago
This. They can see their valuations slipping. They hope that in a few/several years they will start reaping profits. However, in several years local hardware will be well suited to run models locally at 80-90% efficiency - for "free". You won't need frontier models for daily tasks in a few years. I'd guess.
- anuramat 3mo ago
  > 80-90% efficiency wdym by that > for daily tasks which are?
  - glenpierce 3mo ago
    You get about 80-90% of the results for daily tasks like: getting summaries or explanations of complex material. Writing software tools for data analysis. Getting recipes for a given set of ingredients in the fridge.
    - anuramat 3mo ago
      > 80-90% of the results why would I ever want 80% of the results though?
  - numpad0 3mo ago
    128B-A16B class models at 10-50 tok/s should be plenty for most tasks done on computers
  - julianlam 3mo ago
    What do you need a frontier model for, really.
    - ekidd 3mo ago
      Frontier models like Fable are mostly useful if you want to paste in one or two prompts, and receive a subtly broken application that looks impressive. That is very hard to do with local models today. What current local models work fine for is delegating clearly-described tasks in a code base the programmer actually understands. Qwen3.6 27B and DeepSeek V4 Flash are both great little workhorses. There's also GLM 5.2, which is kind of like "store brand Opus", and which might be considered a "near-frontier" model. I don't have as much experience with it.
      - int_19h 3mo ago
        FWIW Fable is insanely expensive for the task you just described, so much so that I don't think it's practical for that. Its practical use is as a dev lead / architect / project manager model, doing planning and writing detailed feature specs and code reviews while Opus/Codex/Gemini does the actual coding.
    - anuramat 3mo ago
      research, refactoring, architecture also just code-that-is-not-as-shit in general for clearly defined stuff smaller models are fine, but at that point I'd rather write the code myself in any case, if there's a chance a cheaper model will fuck it up, is the price diff worth gambling with your time?
windexh8er 3mo ago
They already are. Altman is basically begging the US to buy into OAI, that's just the start. Both OAI and Anthropic are going to have to go down this path or their financials will never work out. Open local models are where the enterprise will need to go for any of this to be cost feasible, but we can almost guarantee this will be a battle nobody using AI will have asked for. You can thank Dario and Sam for the dystopian future that will pad their bottom line!
- dominotw 3mo ago
  there will always be higher valuation for company inventing model+1 . no one wants to use latest_model -1 when their competiton is using latest_model.
  - windexh8er 3mo ago
    If neither model+1 or model-1 are providing tangible value to the business does anyone really care, though? At a certain point nobody believes Chicken Little. I get it. These models can be powerful. But will they be useful is a different question.
    - dominotw 3mo ago
      right. thats the real question. Are models improving meanginflully for ppl to pay a premium for latest model or are they just a commodity. i would argue that no one knows answer to that yet.
      - randsorex 3mo ago
        I am at 73% use on the week for all models and 2% use on the week for Fable. Personally, I am good with the current version of Opus. It is already so strong for my uses that I can't really tell much difference with Fable. For me, current Opus represents the model strength that can be commoditized. I am not splitting the atom that I need something much smarter. I have gone completely risk off in the market the last month because of this. Commoditized at the low end and regulation is not going to become less of a problem as the frontier models get stronger. I suspect 10 years from now we will look back at trillionaire Elon as an obvious tell we are the peak.
byzantinegene 3mo ago
their desperation says alot about the viability of their business.
yogthos 3mo ago
This whole situation is very reminiscent of how Microsoft was trying to get Linux and open source banned when NT started losing market share on the server.

stanislavb 3mo ago

This. They can see their valuations slipping. They hope that in a few/several years they will start reaping profits. However, in several years local hardware will be well suited to run models locally at 80-90% efficiency - for "free". You won't need frontier models for daily tasks in a few years. I'd guess.

anuramat 3mo ago
> 80-90% efficiency wdym by that > for daily tasks which are?
- glenpierce 3mo ago
  You get about 80-90% of the results for daily tasks like: getting summaries or explanations of complex material. Writing software tools for data analysis. Getting recipes for a given set of ingredients in the fridge.
  - anuramat 3mo ago
    > 80-90% of the results why would I ever want 80% of the results though?
- numpad0 3mo ago
  128B-A16B class models at 10-50 tok/s should be plenty for most tasks done on computers
- julianlam 3mo ago
  What do you need a frontier model for, really.
  - ekidd 3mo ago
    Frontier models like Fable are mostly useful if you want to paste in one or two prompts, and receive a subtly broken application that looks impressive. That is very hard to do with local models today. What current local models work fine for is delegating clearly-described tasks in a code base the programmer actually understands. Qwen3.6 27B and DeepSeek V4 Flash are both great little workhorses. There's also GLM 5.2, which is kind of like "store brand Opus", and which might be considered a "near-frontier" model. I don't have as much experience with it.
    - int_19h 3mo ago
      FWIW Fable is insanely expensive for the task you just described, so much so that I don't think it's practical for that. Its practical use is as a dev lead / architect / project manager model, doing planning and writing detailed feature specs and code reviews while Opus/Codex/Gemini does the actual coding.
  - anuramat 3mo ago
    research, refactoring, architecture also just code-that-is-not-as-shit in general for clearly defined stuff smaller models are fine, but at that point I'd rather write the code myself in any case, if there's a chance a cheaper model will fuck it up, is the price diff worth gambling with your time?

windexh8er 3mo ago

They already are. Altman is basically begging the US to buy into OAI, that's just the start. Both OAI and Anthropic are going to have to go down this path or their financials will never work out. Open local models are where the enterprise will need to go for any of this to be cost feasible, but we can almost guarantee this will be a battle nobody using AI will have asked for. You can thank Dario and Sam for the dystopian future that will pad their bottom line!

dominotw 3mo ago
there will always be higher valuation for company inventing model+1 . no one wants to use latest_model -1 when their competiton is using latest_model.
- windexh8er 3mo ago
  If neither model+1 or model-1 are providing tangible value to the business does anyone really care, though? At a certain point nobody believes Chicken Little. I get it. These models can be powerful. But will they be useful is a different question.
  - dominotw 3mo ago
    right. thats the real question. Are models improving meanginflully for ppl to pay a premium for latest model or are they just a commodity. i would argue that no one knows answer to that yet.
    - randsorex 3mo ago
      I am at 73% use on the week for all models and 2% use on the week for Fable. Personally, I am good with the current version of Opus. It is already so strong for my uses that I can't really tell much difference with Fable. For me, current Opus represents the model strength that can be commoditized. I am not splitting the atom that I need something much smarter. I have gone completely risk off in the market the last month because of this. Commoditized at the low end and regulation is not going to become less of a problem as the frontier models get stronger. I suspect 10 years from now we will look back at trillionaire Elon as an obvious tell we are the peak.

byzantinegene 3mo ago

their desperation says alot about the viability of their business.

yogthos 3mo ago

This whole situation is very reminiscent of how Microsoft was trying to get Linux and open source banned when NT started losing market share on the server.