4 ms·
4.6 was released at the beginning of February, so if the Chinese models only "tickle its tail," that means they're >5 months behind.
by rafram 3mo ago
4.6 was released at the beginning of February, so if the Chinese models only "tickle its tail," that means they're >5 months behind.
- trvz 3mo ago> The leading Chinese models are only a few months behind now
- PeterStuer 3mo agoI hear that often, but what does that even mean? I am a great proponent of open weights models. I do believe they are the only reason we have not stagnated into a collusion of halting (public) model releases. But exactly which point in time is z.ai compared to claude.ai? Consistently bring "6 months behind" in an exponentially acellerating evolution means the gap is growing exponentially wider, not constant.
- SwellJoe 3mo ago"an exponentially acellerating evolution" Oh? Exponentially accelerating, huh? That's quite a surprise, to me.
- PeterStuer 3mo agoSure we can nitpick semantics, but how would you describe the evolution in GenAI SWE capability over the last 18 months?
- SwellJoe 3mo agoWhat range of numbers do you believe "a few" represents?
- mlyle 3mo agoOpinions vary, but: A couple: usually 2, though not always A few: 3, 4, 5 Several: 4, 5, 6, or 7.
- marcus_holmes 3mo ago> A couple: usually 2, though not always I had to explain this to my German friend. In my understanding this isn't about the actual number, it's about the certainty. If it's absolutely and definitely two, then I say two. If I'm uncertain but it's probably two, or if a non-integer, somewhere around two, then I say couple. And few is more likely to be 3 than 5, because 5 is getting close to a "half-dozen or so", or (as you say) several. Many is very context-sensitive, as the meme has it. So I would agree that the open models are a few months behind, definitely more than a couple of months behind, possibly several months behind, maybe a half-dozen months or so behind, but not many months behind.
- cassianoleal 3mo agoIn the UK, as far as I can tell, a couple are 2. Not around 2. Not maybe 3 or 4. Always 2. 3 or 4 would likely be a few, or some. 1 is, well, one.
- jonathrg 3mo agoSeveral and a few are the same number, they only differ rhetorically.
- mlyle 3mo agoI think several is used by most speakers for larger quantities than few. It has the connotation of being larger, and that changes usage.
- rafram 3mo agoCertainly below 6!
- felipeerias 3mo agoThat comparison is also misleading because Opus 4.6 was probably not Anthropic's frontier model. We got the first news about Mythos in March, so it is likely that it was already close to ready by the time Opus 4.6 was released. So the actual gap is the time elapsed between March (or April for the official announcement) and whenever Chinese models can match Mythos.
- SwellJoe 3mo agoThe post-training process of a model that size is months, though it "works" before that. It is a big chunky model before it's released to the world and probably does some amazing things, sometimes...but, it wasn't done (else why wouldn't they release it and soundly trounce their competitors). I would assume that Chinese AI companies have a pipeline and what we see is a couple/few months behind their newest model, as well. Like, the new base model is cooked, but they're still plating it for service. Why would Anthropic get the benefit of pre-release models counting toward their lead, if nobody else gets to count their pre-release models?