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To me it sounds like you are using the same illogical mix of correlation and causation assuming that Thiel's success must be solely attributed to luck instead g
by walkon 14y ago
To me it sounds like you are using the same illogical mix of correlation and causation assuming that Thiel's success must be solely attributed to luck instead good methodologies, hard work, etc. It is wrong to assume his methodologies must be bogus only because he's been fortunate in other ways.
- confluence 14y agoSounds like you've never heard of the survivorship bias. I'm sure there were plenty of Peter Thiels out there with the exact same personal habits that failed. There are a thousand Thiels born everyday. Most are fucked by being born into poverty - of those that aren't - their success is separated by mere path dependent chance. Humans are similar. Situations aren't.