3 ms·

Is there any comprehensive list of historical warnings from central bankers?

ozgrakkurt 3mo ago
I just checked 2007 and 1999 reports [1] a a bit and doesn't seem like they made such obvious warnings at those times. I don't know much about economy and I just did some ctrl + f skimming, but this new 2026 warning is obviously more clear to me. [1] https://www.bis.org/annualeconomicreports/index.htm?annualeconomicreports_page=3 https://www.bis.org/annualeconomicreports/index.htm?annualec...
- californical 3mo ago
  I think we also would need to know how many of these warnings they gave where nothing bad happened
- da-x 3mo ago
  You're on the spot, it can certainly be a self-defeating prophecy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-defeating_prophecy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-defeating_prophecy
- rawgabbit 3mo ago
  The BIS report actually compares the AI boom to the dot Com bubble and earlier manias. "Historical episodes of investment booms offer instructive parallels (Graph 11.C). The canal mania of the 1830s, the British railway mania in the 1840s, the electrification exuberance of the late 1920s (roaring 20s) and the dotcom boom of the late 90s all shared one common trait: a genuine technological breakthrough that attracted capital in excess of what commercial returns could ultimately justify. These episodes ended with an eventual reversal in investment, inducing economy-wide recessions. The scale and pace of the current AI investment boom accompanied by expectations of large productivity payoffs bear resemblance to these precedents, highlighting potential downside risks in the near term."
  - ozgrakkurt 3mo ago
    The discrepancy is that they didn't have the same reaction before 2000 and 2008 so this seems like hindsight. Also seems suspiciosly similar to LLM maxxing guys saying things like "this is just like the internet, bro" Also like someone else wrote in a comment, another aspect is that there is a very large sentiment that this is will crash this time so not sure if it could even crash like before, assuming people werent so aware of the risks in past cryses.

I just checked 2007 and 1999 reports [1] a a bit and doesn't seem like they made such obvious warnings at those times. I don't know much about economy and I just did some ctrl + f skimming, but this new 2026 warning is obviously more clear to me. [1] https://www.bis.org/annualeconomicreports/index.htm?annualeconomicreports_page=3 https://www.bis.org/annualeconomicreports/index.htm?annualec...

californical 3mo ago
I think we also would need to know how many of these warnings they gave where nothing bad happened
da-x 3mo ago
You're on the spot, it can certainly be a self-defeating prophecy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-defeating_prophecy https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Self-defeating_prophecy
rawgabbit 3mo ago
The BIS report actually compares the AI boom to the dot Com bubble and earlier manias. "Historical episodes of investment booms offer instructive parallels (Graph 11.C). The canal mania of the 1830s, the British railway mania in the 1840s, the electrification exuberance of the late 1920s (roaring 20s) and the dotcom boom of the late 90s all shared one common trait: a genuine technological breakthrough that attracted capital in excess of what commercial returns could ultimately justify. These episodes ended with an eventual reversal in investment, inducing economy-wide recessions. The scale and pace of the current AI investment boom accompanied by expectations of large productivity payoffs bear resemblance to these precedents, highlighting potential downside risks in the near term."
- ozgrakkurt 3mo ago
  The discrepancy is that they didn't have the same reaction before 2000 and 2008 so this seems like hindsight. Also seems suspiciosly similar to LLM maxxing guys saying things like "this is just like the internet, bro" Also like someone else wrote in a comment, another aspect is that there is a very large sentiment that this is will crash this time so not sure if it could even crash like before, assuming people werent so aware of the risks in past cryses.