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Predicting failure is easy. Predicting success is hard. Your quote is only about the easy part.
by natrius 14y ago
Predicting failure is easy. Predicting success is hard. Your quote is only about the easy part.
- JoshuaDavid 14y agoThey also get 55% on success for A-rated companies, which is also pretty good. It's not quite 60%, but it's very close, and considering how much above 60% they get on predicting failures, I think that shows a fairly high accuracy of prediction.
- jopt 14y ago55% is just as close to 50% (coin toss) as 60%.
- aaronblohowiak 14y ago55% on A-rated companies is way better than the "coin-toss" model of randomly assigning a rating to each company, because there are more than two ratings.
- overcyn 14y agoFar far less than half of companies succeed. So identifying successful companies by random draw is not equivalent to a coin toss. In the case of this study, its 10%.
- jopt 14y agoI apologise for ever posting this trainwreck of statistical reasoning. I don't know what I was thinking.