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The LLM improvement curve will level off and with so many AI engineering being in China they will catch up quickly. The financial growth based on that everyone

The LLM improvement curve will level off and with so many AI engineering being in China they will catch up quickly. The financial growth based on that everyone on earth will need to have an OpenAI or Anthropic subscription is quickly falling apart. DeepSeek V4 is good enough for most of my work that that I can no longer justify paying 100x for something else. The cost difference is astronomical.

varjag 3mo ago
Not sure why people here are so upbeat about China. It is almost guaranteed it will also introduce export controls on the models.
- kulahan 3mo ago
  I’ve been asking myself this question quite a bit lately. People seem to suddenly think China is a good alternative to the US hegemony status. I sincerely hope I’m just misreading things.
  - ZeroGravitas 3mo ago
    Probably due to the US government doing a constant stream of insane things that hurt Americans and their allies and China not doing that.
    - wolvoleo 3mo ago
      Yes this. China's leadership is pretty evil and clearly a danger to the world but not insane.
      - plastic-enjoyer 3mo ago
        > China's leadership is pretty evil and clearly a danger to the world Is this how Americans are coping with their civilizatory down fall and vanishing hegemony?
        wolvoleo 3mo ago
        I'm not American. And no, I think America is falling down even more, it is clearly morally and ethically bankrupt. The only thing it has going for it is money but I think this will decline too as goodwill is important too and Trump is burning all that to the ground.
      - scott01 3mo ago
        Can you elaborate?
        KingMob 3mo ago
        Uyghurs, Tibet, and Taiwan, for starters. Taiwan in particular could become a conflict if push came to shove. Hard to say. (No nation will go to bat for the Uyghurs or Tibet, though.)
        vachina 3mo ago
        You need to refresh the latest propaganda Codex, those topics are so last decade.
        msm_ 3mo ago
        He's not wrong though: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-strait_relations#Deteriorating_relations_(2016%E2%80%93present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-strait_relations#Deterio... It doesn't change the fact, that as an European I really wish we had a better relationship with China and ditched US and their backward policies. It's OK to point out atrocities made by big empires, they are all guilty anyway.
        WarmWash 3mo ago
        Are the Hong Kong protests recent enough for you? Disappearing college kids from street rallies?
      - resters 3mo ago
        China’s leadership is pragmatic, transparent, mature.
      - WarmWash 3mo ago
        The US has an open media and the western world internet is a non-stop airing of the US's dirty laundry. China has only state media and little internet overlap with the west. From the POV of your typical western internet denizen, The US elected a dictator to burn the country to the ground, while China is building a utopia where the fruits are free for everyone.
        wolvoleo 3mo ago
        They have state media but we don't consume those. I certainly don't see our european media to be pro-China. The Uyghur issues are major criticism. Also the way they treated their citizens during the pandemic and the protests.
    - kulahan 3mo ago
      Let's not waste time pretending the US is doing something on the same level as what China is doing to the Uighyr. Imagine for a minute that Trump were a lot smarter, and also ran the supreme court and congress, and you'll basically have Xi.
  - wood_spirit 3mo ago
    As the US jerks from being BDFL to bullying zero summer, it’s not surprising that the abstract fears of china seem manageable compared to the new pressing fears of the US. Why as a European be more afraid of a country that whilst you wouldn’t want to live in and which has supported Russia is quiet and selling you cheap stuff vs a country who used to be a friend who is now wanting you to grovel for a bad deal and is also supporting Russia?
    - kulahan 3mo ago
      See this is almost exactly what I’m concerned about. The ignorance to think that the US is “supporting Russia” (as if China bypassing embargoes for the exact same reason is somehow… better? Because you expected it and surprises are scarier than cozying up to enemies???) is astounding. China basically didn’t have to do ANYTHING while also actively having real literal concentration camps, aggressively trying to capture an entire continent through their Debt and Road initiative, and causing global instability on the internet, and useful idiots fall for the trap. Does anyone have any insight into how we could potentially counter China’s propaganda? This comment right here showed the danger of ignoring it.
      - wood_spirit 3mo ago
        I am a careful follower of politics and don’t think I’m ignorant. And on every point you made I could rebut with an example of America doing likewise. On your last point abour “causing instability on the internet”, for example, I could point out we are in a discussion about America wanting to restrict LLMs into haves and have nots and if that isn’t destabilising the internet by preventing non-American companies from defending themselves or paying American companies to defend themselves against them protection racket wise then what is?
        kulahan 3mo ago
        Let’s take like 30 seconds and pretend America has all the same controls China has. All Americans are given a social credit score. Trump can decide any transgender sympathizers are unruly citizens, unworthy of a good score. They are banned from taking out loans. They are banned from buying plane or train tickets. If you call them, a warning informs you they are actively bad people. If you are spotted speaking to them, your friends are encouraged to report your behavior in an app, lowering your score as well. Going down is easy, but going up is nearly impossible. You’ve outed yourself as a problem. In the meantime, Trump has also decided to round up and forcibly sterilize every Jew. They’re pretty destabilizing to the nation as a whole and don’t really fit in, so it’s important for the stability of the nation. They are disappeared, sent to prison colonies, and given mysterious injections. International news organizations sneak in to try and get ideas of what you’re doing to them. Online, you never speak of this of course. Not only are your comments tracked (affecting that citizen social score I mentioned), the propaganda you need to hear is tuned to you harder than ever before. It is designed to have a perfect answer to every complaint you have. If you fight too hard, a quick reeducational visit can do wonders. There are like ten million more things I could complain about, but let’s just keep it to the most obvious, well-known stuff for now. All of this stuff is actively happening in China right now. So, I apologize, but I cannot accept that you are “a careful follower of politics”. I don’t hold it against you, but it’s insanely concerning.
  - BurdensomeCount 3mo ago
    If the Chinese models are open weight the after release you don't care about China at all; they could be running on a server in Bulgaria with zero CCP influence for all you care.
  - t0mas88 3mo ago
    Consider it from a European perspective: The US under this administration is more unreliable than China. If Trump decides tomorrow that he's unhappy about something he'll pull some random other thing to bully the other side. You can't do business with that. Rebuilding trust and foreign relationships is going to take a long time after Trump is gone.
    - abroszka33 3mo ago
      As a European I still prefer US over China.
      - sschueller 3mo ago
        But why? There are no Chinese military personnel and bases in Europe. The Chinese have not tried to take European land by force and China is also quite stable. It won't change it's mind every 4 years and negate international treaties that have been signed. I also don't recall China invading another country and/or kidnapping leaders of a foreign state in recent history. China also does not control the global reserve currency and can not unilaterally impose debilitating sanction on countries such as Cuba causing the death of thousands of innocent people because of some historical beef. Yes, China does not have a good human rights record, they imprison a lot of political dissidence but then who are we comparing them too? The US has a 5x worse per capita prison population than China and a horrific human rights record. What exactly bothers you so much about China that the US does not?
        theplumber 3mo ago
        I think the Europeans have had some bad experiences with the communist system so naturally they are not very keen to any get communist influence. Once China can twist your arm you can be sure they will. Just mention democracy to them and you will see what comes next.
        chmod775 3mo ago
        Most Europeans do not think about some ill-defined "communist threat" at all. The majority of negative opinions about China stem from economic worries. Also FYI: the CCP has officially adopted the designation "socialist democracy" for themselves*, so I don't think you're going to bother them much by using that term. You'll have to get more specific about what you think their "democracy" should look like for them to start giving you the side-eye. * Many places that are not really recognizable as democracies from a western POV do this. People, we have democracy at home!
  - AussieWog93 3mo ago
    As an Aussie, I see it as a good thing that the US has competition. Wouldn't want China to become dominant either, though.
    - kulahan 3mo ago
      I think this is actually a very level-headed response. It would probably be good for this to scare the US into cleaning its act up a bit.
- moooo99 3mo ago
  > It is almost guaranteed it will also introduce export controls on the models. The current models are open weights and already out the door. They are hosted by many providers and are already comparatively good in many domains. Even if this generation is the last one to be open, I‘d argue it would already put the US providers in trouble
  - varjag 3mo ago
    Naturally I wasn't implying they'll restrict the current models retroactively. Which either way trail behind even the universally available frontier models. What's perplexing is people see CCP as some kind of libertarians while they in fact love regulations and routinely leverage them both domestically and in exports.
  - roenxi 3mo ago
    Also, the evidence isn't that China is doing anything magic - it seems AI is just energy + compute as opposed to any special research edge. There is reason to think that anyone would be capable of building these models. They're generic and every country will eventually catch up at a speed depending on how economically capable they are at buildign data centres. I'm upbreat about China because they seem to be the biggest player here, but even if they don't come through I expect other countries will be able to put out decent free models.
    - c0n5pir4cy 3mo ago
      I would argue that there is somewhat a research edge - there's no reason to think Chinese labs aren't incredibly capable in research though, look at all the recent papers from them on things like efficiency.
- sschueller 3mo ago
  [flagged]
- dgellow 3mo ago
  Right now they are the one competing openly
- win311fwg 3mo ago
  Export controls are only a strategic advantage if the export destinations don't already have the same (or better) technology. That time may come, but first China needs to export to destroy the AI industry in the USA.
- deleted 3mo ago
  [deleted]
- expedition32 3mo ago
  I disagree. With America turtling up into a Christian nationalist theocracy the world is China's to win. They still want free trade.
HexPhantom 3mo ago
Where the frontier labs still have a business is probably not casual consumer chat

varjag 3mo ago

Not sure why people here are so upbeat about China. It is almost guaranteed it will also introduce export controls on the models.

kulahan 3mo ago
I’ve been asking myself this question quite a bit lately. People seem to suddenly think China is a good alternative to the US hegemony status. I sincerely hope I’m just misreading things.
- ZeroGravitas 3mo ago
  Probably due to the US government doing a constant stream of insane things that hurt Americans and their allies and China not doing that.
  - wolvoleo 3mo ago
    Yes this. China's leadership is pretty evil and clearly a danger to the world but not insane.
    - plastic-enjoyer 3mo ago
      > China's leadership is pretty evil and clearly a danger to the world Is this how Americans are coping with their civilizatory down fall and vanishing hegemony?
      - wolvoleo 3mo ago
        I'm not American. And no, I think America is falling down even more, it is clearly morally and ethically bankrupt. The only thing it has going for it is money but I think this will decline too as goodwill is important too and Trump is burning all that to the ground.
    - scott01 3mo ago
      Can you elaborate?
      - KingMob 3mo ago
        Uyghurs, Tibet, and Taiwan, for starters. Taiwan in particular could become a conflict if push came to shove. Hard to say. (No nation will go to bat for the Uyghurs or Tibet, though.)
        vachina 3mo ago
        You need to refresh the latest propaganda Codex, those topics are so last decade.
        msm_ 3mo ago
        He's not wrong though: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-strait_relations#Deteriorating_relations_(2016%E2%80%93present) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross-strait_relations#Deterio... It doesn't change the fact, that as an European I really wish we had a better relationship with China and ditched US and their backward policies. It's OK to point out atrocities made by big empires, they are all guilty anyway.
        WarmWash 3mo ago
        Are the Hong Kong protests recent enough for you? Disappearing college kids from street rallies?
    - resters 3mo ago
      China’s leadership is pragmatic, transparent, mature.
    - WarmWash 3mo ago
      The US has an open media and the western world internet is a non-stop airing of the US's dirty laundry. China has only state media and little internet overlap with the west. From the POV of your typical western internet denizen, The US elected a dictator to burn the country to the ground, while China is building a utopia where the fruits are free for everyone.
      - wolvoleo 3mo ago
        They have state media but we don't consume those. I certainly don't see our european media to be pro-China. The Uyghur issues are major criticism. Also the way they treated their citizens during the pandemic and the protests.
  - kulahan 3mo ago
    Let's not waste time pretending the US is doing something on the same level as what China is doing to the Uighyr. Imagine for a minute that Trump were a lot smarter, and also ran the supreme court and congress, and you'll basically have Xi.
- wood_spirit 3mo ago
  As the US jerks from being BDFL to bullying zero summer, it’s not surprising that the abstract fears of china seem manageable compared to the new pressing fears of the US. Why as a European be more afraid of a country that whilst you wouldn’t want to live in and which has supported Russia is quiet and selling you cheap stuff vs a country who used to be a friend who is now wanting you to grovel for a bad deal and is also supporting Russia?
  - kulahan 3mo ago
    See this is almost exactly what I’m concerned about. The ignorance to think that the US is “supporting Russia” (as if China bypassing embargoes for the exact same reason is somehow… better? Because you expected it and surprises are scarier than cozying up to enemies???) is astounding. China basically didn’t have to do ANYTHING while also actively having real literal concentration camps, aggressively trying to capture an entire continent through their Debt and Road initiative, and causing global instability on the internet, and useful idiots fall for the trap. Does anyone have any insight into how we could potentially counter China’s propaganda? This comment right here showed the danger of ignoring it.
    - wood_spirit 3mo ago
      I am a careful follower of politics and don’t think I’m ignorant. And on every point you made I could rebut with an example of America doing likewise. On your last point abour “causing instability on the internet”, for example, I could point out we are in a discussion about America wanting to restrict LLMs into haves and have nots and if that isn’t destabilising the internet by preventing non-American companies from defending themselves or paying American companies to defend themselves against them protection racket wise then what is?
      - kulahan 3mo ago
        Let’s take like 30 seconds and pretend America has all the same controls China has. All Americans are given a social credit score. Trump can decide any transgender sympathizers are unruly citizens, unworthy of a good score. They are banned from taking out loans. They are banned from buying plane or train tickets. If you call them, a warning informs you they are actively bad people. If you are spotted speaking to them, your friends are encouraged to report your behavior in an app, lowering your score as well. Going down is easy, but going up is nearly impossible. You’ve outed yourself as a problem. In the meantime, Trump has also decided to round up and forcibly sterilize every Jew. They’re pretty destabilizing to the nation as a whole and don’t really fit in, so it’s important for the stability of the nation. They are disappeared, sent to prison colonies, and given mysterious injections. International news organizations sneak in to try and get ideas of what you’re doing to them. Online, you never speak of this of course. Not only are your comments tracked (affecting that citizen social score I mentioned), the propaganda you need to hear is tuned to you harder than ever before. It is designed to have a perfect answer to every complaint you have. If you fight too hard, a quick reeducational visit can do wonders. There are like ten million more things I could complain about, but let’s just keep it to the most obvious, well-known stuff for now. All of this stuff is actively happening in China right now. So, I apologize, but I cannot accept that you are “a careful follower of politics”. I don’t hold it against you, but it’s insanely concerning.
- BurdensomeCount 3mo ago
  If the Chinese models are open weight the after release you don't care about China at all; they could be running on a server in Bulgaria with zero CCP influence for all you care.
- t0mas88 3mo ago
  Consider it from a European perspective: The US under this administration is more unreliable than China. If Trump decides tomorrow that he's unhappy about something he'll pull some random other thing to bully the other side. You can't do business with that. Rebuilding trust and foreign relationships is going to take a long time after Trump is gone.
  - abroszka33 3mo ago
    As a European I still prefer US over China.
    - sschueller 3mo ago
      But why? There are no Chinese military personnel and bases in Europe. The Chinese have not tried to take European land by force and China is also quite stable. It won't change it's mind every 4 years and negate international treaties that have been signed. I also don't recall China invading another country and/or kidnapping leaders of a foreign state in recent history. China also does not control the global reserve currency and can not unilaterally impose debilitating sanction on countries such as Cuba causing the death of thousands of innocent people because of some historical beef. Yes, China does not have a good human rights record, they imprison a lot of political dissidence but then who are we comparing them too? The US has a 5x worse per capita prison population than China and a horrific human rights record. What exactly bothers you so much about China that the US does not?
      - theplumber 3mo ago
        I think the Europeans have had some bad experiences with the communist system so naturally they are not very keen to any get communist influence. Once China can twist your arm you can be sure they will. Just mention democracy to them and you will see what comes next.
        chmod775 3mo ago
        Most Europeans do not think about some ill-defined "communist threat" at all. The majority of negative opinions about China stem from economic worries. Also FYI: the CCP has officially adopted the designation "socialist democracy" for themselves*, so I don't think you're going to bother them much by using that term. You'll have to get more specific about what you think their "democracy" should look like for them to start giving you the side-eye. * Many places that are not really recognizable as democracies from a western POV do this. People, we have democracy at home!
- AussieWog93 3mo ago
  As an Aussie, I see it as a good thing that the US has competition. Wouldn't want China to become dominant either, though.
  - kulahan 3mo ago
    I think this is actually a very level-headed response. It would probably be good for this to scare the US into cleaning its act up a bit.
moooo99 3mo ago
> It is almost guaranteed it will also introduce export controls on the models. The current models are open weights and already out the door. They are hosted by many providers and are already comparatively good in many domains. Even if this generation is the last one to be open, I‘d argue it would already put the US providers in trouble
- varjag 3mo ago
  Naturally I wasn't implying they'll restrict the current models retroactively. Which either way trail behind even the universally available frontier models. What's perplexing is people see CCP as some kind of libertarians while they in fact love regulations and routinely leverage them both domestically and in exports.
- roenxi 3mo ago
  Also, the evidence isn't that China is doing anything magic - it seems AI is just energy + compute as opposed to any special research edge. There is reason to think that anyone would be capable of building these models. They're generic and every country will eventually catch up at a speed depending on how economically capable they are at buildign data centres. I'm upbreat about China because they seem to be the biggest player here, but even if they don't come through I expect other countries will be able to put out decent free models.
  - c0n5pir4cy 3mo ago
    I would argue that there is somewhat a research edge - there's no reason to think Chinese labs aren't incredibly capable in research though, look at all the recent papers from them on things like efficiency.
sschueller 3mo ago
[flagged]
dgellow 3mo ago
Right now they are the one competing openly
win311fwg 3mo ago
Export controls are only a strategic advantage if the export destinations don't already have the same (or better) technology. That time may come, but first China needs to export to destroy the AI industry in the USA.
deleted 3mo ago
[deleted]
expedition32 3mo ago
I disagree. With America turtling up into a Christian nationalist theocracy the world is China's to win. They still want free trade.

HexPhantom 3mo ago

Where the frontier labs still have a business is probably not casual consumer chat