5 ms·

This makes me sad since it implies that the best LLM I will ever be allowed to use is GPT 5.5 and Opus 4.8. Anything smarter than that is deemed too risky. So

by bel8 4mo ago

This makes me sad since it implies that the best LLM I will ever be allowed to use is GPT 5.5 and Opus 4.8. Anything smarter than that is deemed too risky. So much wasted potential. And why would I pay Anthropic or OpenAI once consumer hardware gets powerful enough to run an open weight Chinese version of Opus 4.8? Even more so when mobile phones are able to run similar LLMs. Their financial growth looks doomed. It looks like they will be heavily regulated just like the next missile factory. This is antagonist to VC led turbo growth startup regime.

timurlenk 4mo ago
Well, now I'm rooting for the Europeans/chinese to develop something better and release it. One can hope.
johnisgood 4mo ago
Cannot you just obtain them the same way you would obtain any copyrighted material and use them locally?
andxor 4mo ago
That's not what is implied. Fable may still be widely available.
- deleted 4mo ago
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- cubefox 4mo ago
  ... in the US.
  - 9dev 4mo ago
    Be gentle, foreigners using the internet is still a pretty new concept to them
sschueller 4mo ago
The LLM improvement curve will level off and with so many AI engineering being in China they will catch up quickly. The financial growth based on that everyone on earth will need to have an OpenAI or Anthropic subscription is quickly falling apart. DeepSeek V4 is good enough for most of my work that that I can no longer justify paying 100x for something else. The cost difference is astronomical.
- varjag 4mo ago
  Not sure why people here are so upbeat about China. It is almost guaranteed it will also introduce export controls on the models.
  - kulahan 4mo ago
    I’ve been asking myself this question quite a bit lately. People seem to suddenly think China is a good alternative to the US hegemony status. I sincerely hope I’m just misreading things.
    - ZeroGravitas 4mo ago
      Probably due to the US government doing a constant stream of insane things that hurt Americans and their allies and China not doing that.
      - wolvoleo 4mo ago
        Yes this. China's leadership is pretty evil and clearly a danger to the world but not insane.
        plastic-enjoyer 4mo ago
        > China's leadership is pretty evil and clearly a danger to the world Is this how Americans are coping with their civilizatory down fall and vanishing hegemony?
ifwinterco 4mo ago
The last bit might be the point - this has all got a bit out of hand, the US government might have decided now is the time to prick this bubble. Either because ordinary people hate it or (more likely) because Sam and Dario have got too powerful and they’re now starting to become a genuine rival castle to the US government in elite theory terms - of course at that point you get your wings clipped
- Hamuko 4mo ago
  I have very little confidence in the current US administration trying to protect the economy. If anything they'd just try to cash out.
  - ifwinterco 4mo ago
    Yeah that's what I'm saying - this isn't about "doing the right thing", it's about the existing power structures wanting to preserve their status (the US equivalent of what happened to Jack Ma). Kushner and the rest of the gang have probably already got a heads up about this and cashed out their stakes, now it's time for Sam and Dario to go through some struggle sessions
HexPhantom 4mo ago
I share the sadness, but I'm not sure the consumer market was ever the main prize here
cmrdporcupine 4mo ago
Right, I cancelled my Codex sub yesterday, it ends today. I'm not American and I see the writing on the wall, I'd just as soon improve my tooling to work more effectively with "stupider" open weight models than be dependent on Lutnick and Bessent for "permission" to use the frontier models. Sad situation is that half the talent that did the primary research and initially created these models and got them out there was educated here or taught here or have citizenship here in Canada. Karpathy, Sutskever, Hinton, there's a huge list. And for other countries, too. In the short term this play may work for the US administration, in the long run it will only reduce the flow of talent and good will and sharing between G7 nations.

by bel8 4mo ago

timurlenk 4mo ago

Well, now I'm rooting for the Europeans/chinese to develop something better and release it. One can hope.

johnisgood 4mo ago

Cannot you just obtain them the same way you would obtain any copyrighted material and use them locally?

andxor 4mo ago

That's not what is implied. Fable may still be widely available.

deleted 4mo ago
[deleted]
deleted 4mo ago
[deleted]
cubefox 4mo ago
... in the US.
- 9dev 4mo ago
  Be gentle, foreigners using the internet is still a pretty new concept to them

sschueller 4mo ago

The LLM improvement curve will level off and with so many AI engineering being in China they will catch up quickly. The financial growth based on that everyone on earth will need to have an OpenAI or Anthropic subscription is quickly falling apart. DeepSeek V4 is good enough for most of my work that that I can no longer justify paying 100x for something else. The cost difference is astronomical.

varjag 4mo ago
Not sure why people here are so upbeat about China. It is almost guaranteed it will also introduce export controls on the models.
- kulahan 4mo ago
  I’ve been asking myself this question quite a bit lately. People seem to suddenly think China is a good alternative to the US hegemony status. I sincerely hope I’m just misreading things.
  - ZeroGravitas 4mo ago
    Probably due to the US government doing a constant stream of insane things that hurt Americans and their allies and China not doing that.
    - wolvoleo 4mo ago
      Yes this. China's leadership is pretty evil and clearly a danger to the world but not insane.
      - plastic-enjoyer 4mo ago
        > China's leadership is pretty evil and clearly a danger to the world Is this how Americans are coping with their civilizatory down fall and vanishing hegemony?

ifwinterco 4mo ago

The last bit might be the point - this has all got a bit out of hand, the US government might have decided now is the time to prick this bubble. Either because ordinary people hate it or (more likely) because Sam and Dario have got too powerful and they’re now starting to become a genuine rival castle to the US government in elite theory terms - of course at that point you get your wings clipped

Hamuko 4mo ago
I have very little confidence in the current US administration trying to protect the economy. If anything they'd just try to cash out.
- ifwinterco 4mo ago
  Yeah that's what I'm saying - this isn't about "doing the right thing", it's about the existing power structures wanting to preserve their status (the US equivalent of what happened to Jack Ma). Kushner and the rest of the gang have probably already got a heads up about this and cashed out their stakes, now it's time for Sam and Dario to go through some struggle sessions

HexPhantom 4mo ago

I share the sadness, but I'm not sure the consumer market was ever the main prize here

cmrdporcupine 4mo ago

Right, I cancelled my Codex sub yesterday, it ends today. I'm not American and I see the writing on the wall, I'd just as soon improve my tooling to work more effectively with "stupider" open weight models than be dependent on Lutnick and Bessent for "permission" to use the frontier models. Sad situation is that half the talent that did the primary research and initially created these models and got them out there was educated here or taught here or have citizenship here in Canada. Karpathy, Sutskever, Hinton, there's a huge list. And for other countries, too. In the short term this play may work for the US administration, in the long run it will only reduce the flow of talent and good will and sharing between G7 nations.