I very much doubt the primary reason nation states are lining up to permit or forbid access to these systems is 'fear of future AGI dominance' I think it's muc

I very much doubt the primary reason nation states are lining up to permit or forbid access to these systems is 'fear of future AGI dominance' I think it's much more immediate/present: the weights and the information breach significant strategic controls on national data and posture, which can be back-derived from the models. If you can analyse a model, you can infer what structural inputs dictate it.