3 ms·
> In a deflationary system, someone might expect to earn a 2% real return on doing absolutely nothing with their money. So a 2.1% real return on risking money [
by somenameforme 4mo ago
> In a deflationary system, someone might expect to earn a 2% real return on doing absolutely nothing with their money. So a 2.1% real return on risking money [by investing in something with an EV of 0.1%] isn't very attractive.
Deflation doesn't affect your wealth by making it literally increase in quantity anymore than inflation affects it by making it literally decrease. If you have something with a expected value of 0.1% per year then if you invest $1000 in it, at the end of the year you have $1001 and your wealth has grown even faster than if you did nothing with it. By contrast if you carried out such an investment in an inflationary system then you also have $1001, but your wealth has decreased relatively significantly because it has much less spending power than your initial $1000. In deflation you can invest in literally anything you think is profitable, and even if turns out to be slightly unprofitable, you'll see your wealth grow. In inflation, you need to see infinite exponential growth, or you lose. So gambling and moonshots are incentivized while stable cost-focused ventures are disincentivized.
This loops right back into education. You're quite fond of calling things you disagree with memes, yet your perspective of education and its 'organic' value is heavily meme driven, so to speak. The college wage premium peaked in the early 2000s, when college prices were substantially lower than they are now, though still already unreasonably high. [1] And the college premium of 2005 was the same as it was in 1915. [2] It's the funny money, and only the funny money. Whether or not people themselves can convert their dollar to gold is largely immaterial to this discussion. The issue is about government's making the money printer go whirrrrrrr, and that decision's subsequent effect on society. Bretton Woods constrained government's abilities to do this, at least ostensibly. But the 1950s were still relatively constrained.
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The numbers you're giving are misleading. For instance in modern times there's only about 45 million housing units that are owned without debt (don't forget home equity loans as well). [3] And then only some percent of those are owner-occupied, and then only some percent of those are comparable to the type we're looking at - single family, detached. Unfortunately the census does not provide a direct way to combine these data. But we can see as a percent of all housing units (which is about 149 million) we're already approaching quite negligible numbers. Don't get so vested in an argument that you stop sniff testing the things you yourself are saying. Speaking of sniff, it's not like e.g. people just didn't shower in the 50s. The stuff like houses without indoor bathrooms is going to come, overwhelmingly, from things like rural farms and such with outhouses where excreta could then be used as fertilizer.
And yes, rental rates began to skyrocket in the 60s, and the trend began to where we are now. That's when the money printer started going out of control, money was being aggressively injected into society, and everything began being unaffordable - except wages which were (and are) now constantly being pushed downward. And so we got the see inequality spiral out of control, housing become unaffordable for the majority of people, people being unable to graduate without being drowned in debt, and all of these other fun things that modern society has created.
[1] - https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/what-happened-to-the-college-wage-premium https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/what-happened-to...
[2] - https://www.nber.org/papers/w12984 https://www.nber.org/papers/w12984
[3] - https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT1Y2023.B25081 https://data.census.gov/table/ACSDT1Y2023.B25081
- notahacker 4mo ago> Don't get so vested in an argument that you stop sniff testing the things you yourself are saying. If only your self awareness wasn't inversely proportional to your tenacity... The irony of saying that in response to an exchange where I've observed that you've failed to understand the contents of a source you provided and corrected you about what it actually says! It's well established that home ownership is about 14 percentage points higher than it was in 1950 or about 20 points higher than the actual gold standard era, and that homeowner equity and free and clear home ownership is reached all time recorded highs recently. Trying to rescue your argument by looking at disaggregated data runs into the trouble that numbers of rooms and availability of running water and commutability to well paying jobs is not likely to be favourable to 1950s housing stock, never mind the glories of the deflationary period of the 1930s (other names for that era include National Mortgage Crisis!). It's almost like stuff like 50% deposit requirements and higher relative costs of basics like food and clothing, and needing to live within walking distance of workplaces were an obstacle to people obtaining houses in the gold standard era despite their low sticker prices! The 1940s and 1950s of course were the era of the Fannie Mac, Freddie Mae "funny money" and so started to look a little better. And yes, housing also costs more today than it does in the 1950s, or indeed during actual deflationary periods like the Great Depression and Panic of 1873. Nobody doubts that. Nobody with an adult level of understanding of how the world works argues that it's all about inflation without considering other factors affecting housing supply and demand, from population changes to rural-urban migration to the average person no longer spending a quarter of their income of food. Hint: if something grows significantly above the rate of inflation, it's probably not a primarily inflation-driven phenomenon. The reason I refer to memes is your repeated failure to understand even basic terminology never mind the actual arguments indicates that you haven't obtained your confidence that you know how the economy should run from actually bothering to learn about it, or even attempting to understand the arguments you're responding to. Taking an introductory course in economics would be a much better use of your time than responding to an argument about risk and base interest rates by repeating your assertion that risking $1000 to earn $1 is a good decision people should definitely make [in the context of high base interest rates, high credit risk and risk-free real wealth accumulation from not investing], and arguing against a tautology. Nope, deflation by definition means that the real wealth held as cash increases, just as inflation by definition means it decreases (a few posts ago, this was your objection to inflation!).