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My advice is to stay in cash Which would be fine as long as you aren't at all concerned about the very real possibly of hyperinflation. Be sure to pick your c

by tc 18y ago

My advice is to stay in cash Which would be fine as long as you aren't at all concerned about the very real possibly of hyperinflation. Be sure to pick your currency wisely.

Zev 18y ago
What makes you say hyperinflation is a very real possibility? Some inflation? Sure, but thats natural. We don't exactly live in Zimbabwe (So I'm assuming at least).
- fortes 18y ago
  Some links (not that I necessarily agree, just giving you info): http://www.videonewslive.com/view/288549/peter_schiff_on_20092010_usa_hyperinflation http://www.videonewslive.com/view/288549/peter_schiff_on_200... http://www.naturalnews.com/019659.html http://www.naturalnews.com/019659.html
mikkom 18y ago
Surviving hyperinflation is easy, just hedge against all majors.
- kirubakaran 18y ago
  Could you explain in noob terms please?
  - Daniel_Newby 18y ago
    One way is to buy long-dated call options on a broad range of issues: indices, index funds, precious metal funds, commodity funds, etc. For instance, the SPY index fund currently trades at $80. Suppose you want inflation protection for it going above $100 by December 2010, and you want to protect $250k of your money. You could buy SPY calls at a strike price of $100 expiring in December 2010. The cost of those call options would be about $8 per share. To hedge $250k, you'd need 3100 options, which would cost $25k. If the price rises into the $100-$108 range, you'd start recovering that cost. If the price exceeds $108, you'd start turning a profit. If the price popped to $175 due to hyperinflation, your profit would be ($175-$100-$8)*3100 = $208k. (BTW, options are sold in contracts of 100, so for 3100 shares you'd buy 31 contracts.) Honestly, though, I don't see this as a good idea right at the moment. The market has been volatile lately, which drives up the price of options. IMHO, inflation is not likely to pick up in North America for at least 1.5 years, so you would need to buy 2011 options, which raises the price even more. If I were going to hedge inflation, I would wait until the current stage of the collapse had reached a lower plateau, some time had elapsed for volatility to decrease and option prices to go down, then buy before inflation expectations build and drive up the cost of call options. Whatever you do, never use the various "ultralong" funds for buy-and-hold hedging. They are strictly for short-term trading. (Well, you can do buy-and-hold, but you have to wait for the price to bottom out, and pray that the fund manager doesn't burn up all the money with failed trading strategies.) Warning: I am not a professional options trader. This is not investment advice.
    - eru 18y ago
      Why consider active investing at all? Just buy and hold an index fund if you want exposure to stocks.
      - kirubakaran 18y ago
        So that all your money won't be locked in. That is, for his ($175-$100-$8) * 3100 equation, you are only leaving 8 * 3100 on the table, as opposed to 100 * 3100 if you were to buy and hold.
        eru 18y ago
        Oh, my comment was more directed at the fear expressed in: "(Well, you can do buy-and-hold, but you have to wait for the price to bottom out, and pray that the fund manager doesn't burn up all the money with failed trading strategies.)" With index investing at least you won't have to rely on a fund manager too much.
- newseller 18y ago
  so how do you do that? :) Can I contact you?
- jwb119 18y ago
  "the only perfect hedge is in a japanese garden" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation
Ardit20 18y ago
I thought the real possibility was deflation rather than inflation. Either way if I just wanted a way to keep the money safe I'd just buy some gold.

by tc 18y ago

My advice is to stay in cash Which would be fine as long as you aren't at all concerned about the very real possibly of hyperinflation. Be sure to pick your currency wisely.

Zev 18y ago

What makes you say hyperinflation is a very real possibility? Some inflation? Sure, but thats natural. We don't exactly live in Zimbabwe (So I'm assuming at least).

fortes 18y ago
Some links (not that I necessarily agree, just giving you info): http://www.videonewslive.com/view/288549/peter_schiff_on_20092010_usa_hyperinflation http://www.videonewslive.com/view/288549/peter_schiff_on_200... http://www.naturalnews.com/019659.html http://www.naturalnews.com/019659.html

mikkom 18y ago

Surviving hyperinflation is easy, just hedge against all majors.

kirubakaran 18y ago
Could you explain in noob terms please?
- Daniel_Newby 18y ago
  One way is to buy long-dated call options on a broad range of issues: indices, index funds, precious metal funds, commodity funds, etc. For instance, the SPY index fund currently trades at $80. Suppose you want inflation protection for it going above $100 by December 2010, and you want to protect $250k of your money. You could buy SPY calls at a strike price of $100 expiring in December 2010. The cost of those call options would be about $8 per share. To hedge $250k, you'd need 3100 options, which would cost $25k. If the price rises into the $100-$108 range, you'd start recovering that cost. If the price exceeds $108, you'd start turning a profit. If the price popped to $175 due to hyperinflation, your profit would be ($175-$100-$8)*3100 = $208k. (BTW, options are sold in contracts of 100, so for 3100 shares you'd buy 31 contracts.) Honestly, though, I don't see this as a good idea right at the moment. The market has been volatile lately, which drives up the price of options. IMHO, inflation is not likely to pick up in North America for at least 1.5 years, so you would need to buy 2011 options, which raises the price even more. If I were going to hedge inflation, I would wait until the current stage of the collapse had reached a lower plateau, some time had elapsed for volatility to decrease and option prices to go down, then buy before inflation expectations build and drive up the cost of call options. Whatever you do, never use the various "ultralong" funds for buy-and-hold hedging. They are strictly for short-term trading. (Well, you can do buy-and-hold, but you have to wait for the price to bottom out, and pray that the fund manager doesn't burn up all the money with failed trading strategies.) Warning: I am not a professional options trader. This is not investment advice.
  - eru 18y ago
    Why consider active investing at all? Just buy and hold an index fund if you want exposure to stocks.
    - kirubakaran 18y ago
      So that all your money won't be locked in. That is, for his ($175-$100-$8) * 3100 equation, you are only leaving 8 * 3100 on the table, as opposed to 100 * 3100 if you were to buy and hold.
      - eru 18y ago
        Oh, my comment was more directed at the fear expressed in: "(Well, you can do buy-and-hold, but you have to wait for the price to bottom out, and pray that the fund manager doesn't burn up all the money with failed trading strategies.)" With index investing at least you won't have to rely on a fund manager too much.
newseller 18y ago
so how do you do that? :) Can I contact you?
jwb119 18y ago
"the only perfect hedge is in a japanese garden" http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

Ardit20 18y ago

I thought the real possibility was deflation rather than inflation. Either way if I just wanted a way to keep the money safe I'd just buy some gold.