3 ms·

And what about the rest of the world? I can't imagine US partners will abide this for long.

15155 3mo ago
They get the dual-use scraps or whatever China is hawking. Being told "no" is never fun, but the regulations are not hard to comply with (despite what Anthropic might have you believe.) > I can't imagine US partners will abide this for long. What are they going to do? Start their own Anthropic? Go for it. Why is every other country in the world entitled to American technology by default?
- sofixa 3mo ago
  > What are they going to do? Start their own Anthropic? Go for it. Why is every other country in the world entitled to American technology by default? Because American tech companies make a lot of money from outside of the US. For instance, 1/4 of all Apple revenues are from Europe, and 1/5 from China and China-claimed territories. Only around 40% are from the Americas (so not even the US exclusively). Would American tech companies be as successfull without ~half their revenues? In any case, it doesn't matter, the cat is out of the bag. Nobody sane and non-American would trust American frontier labs, because their models can be yanked at will by whoever is in the White House. It would be suicidal to rely on them for critical business or developer workflows. So your options are to go with Mistral or open source Chinese models, hosted within your environment, with the added benefits of being able to control the costs and being able to fine tune the models to better work for you.
  - 15155 3mo ago
    > Would American tech companies be as successfull without ~half their revenues? Good luck with "if you don't let us use your AI technology, we wont allow iPhones in" - go for it.
    - sofixa 3mo ago
      Needlessly patriotic and confrontational. I'm referring to OpenAI and Antropic - would they be successfull with ~40-50% of their potential market? And iPhones, not really. But you can bet your ass that every business purchasing software in Europe is at least considering the geopolitical risks of buying American, and thinking of alternatives. Doesn't mean they'll all stop buying American software any time soon, but the shift has already started.
      - 15155 3mo ago
        > I'm referring to OpenAI and Antropic - would they be successfull with ~40-50% of their potential market? You presume that every single product they sell will be restricted: this is unrealistic. The rest of the world can have the gimped models, and as so long as they're better than other offerings, the revenue will flow - which is exactly what happens with countless other dual-use goods.
        sofixa 3mo ago
        I'm not presuming, I flat out said: nobody sane would trust them with their business. They've been shown as unreliable suppliers due to arbitrary decisions by the White House. Nobody would want for their business automation processes to stop working because someone woke up pissy and banned the model they were using.
        ascorbic 3mo ago
        Except the frontier models are the only reason to use them. Why would they use GPT-export when they can use the latest GLM or Kimi?
        villish 3mo ago
        It's probably too late, but my understanding is that those Chinese models would be nowhere near as good as they are currently if they weren't trained on billions of Claude/GPT tokens. Anthropic and OpenAI are still able to produce models that lead in every category but the separation between their models and open weights shrunk because of the free for all access.
- InsideOutSanta 3mo ago
  > Why is every other country in the world entitled to American technology by default? This kind of zero-sum thinking is what is killing the US's global influence right now.
  - 15155 3mo ago
    Except it isn't zero-sum thinking: the rest of the world can have the scraps, and as long as the scraps are marginally better than the rest of the world's offerings, they will sell.
    - InsideOutSanta 3mo ago
      You do see how that is not going to work, right?
      - 15155 3mo ago
        Seems to work for every other export-controlled good and service.
        InsideOutSanta 3mo ago
        Oh, ok, I get it. Sorry, I'm bad at detecting sarcasm on the Internet.
- arevno 3mo ago
  > but the regulations are not hard to comply with Except that they are. As a US citizen, I can purchase ITAR-regulated nightvision, IR lasers, etc. But that's not what's happening. Frontier models are NOT being put under ITAR. Instead, they are being placed on an arbitrary "approved access" list. So that even if you qualify under export restrictions as a citizen, if you don't have a $200B+ market cap, you're disqualified. Many people are upset about the national security restrictions, but it's MUCH WORSE than that. If I have to verify ID/citizenship, well, that sucks, but it would at least be an option. That's not what's happening here. If you are an individual or small business, no matter how "patriotic" you might be, you're out of luck.
  - 15155 3mo ago
    > Except that they are. Did you read the E.O., or just Huffpo's interpretation? > ITAR This is more likely to fall under EAR, it's important to be aware-of and learn the difference. > placed on an arbitrary "approved access" list. Except that's not what the original E.O. indicated, this is just what Anthropic is choosing to do.
    - arevno 3mo ago
      > Did you read the E.O. The EO is nearly a month old, and has precisely zero to do with the de facto current situation, seeing messaging from OpenAI and Anthropic on their non-public agreements with the administration. > This is more likely to fall under EAR Which, ok, maybe, but nobody is seeing movement on this. As of right now, and indeterminately in the future, EAR is still irrelevant. No private US citizen, right now, no matter how many flags are in their yard, no matter how many TRUMP stickers are on their car, can gain access to Fable 5 or GPT-5.6, unless you have political connections or an extremely large market capitalization. > this is just what Anthropic is choosing to do. Irrelevant. This is what OpenAI is also "choosing" to do with GPT-5.6 Sol, which suggests strongly that nobody is actually choosing anything. They are being told what to do, which is don't let the plebians, no matter how patriotic, access these models. GPT-5.5 is clearly the permanent legal limit for anyone not in the S&P 500. n.b. I voted for Trump as a single-issue voter SPECIFICALLY because Harris threatened regulating ML models. This is a betrayal that WILL force loyal, patriotic US citizens into the arms of China. As soon as GLM-5.3 is released and exceeds GPT-5.5 capability, I'm not looking back.

15155 3mo ago

They get the dual-use scraps or whatever China is hawking. Being told "no" is never fun, but the regulations are not hard to comply with (despite what Anthropic might have you believe.) > I can't imagine US partners will abide this for long. What are they going to do? Start their own Anthropic? Go for it. Why is every other country in the world entitled to American technology by default?

sofixa 3mo ago
> What are they going to do? Start their own Anthropic? Go for it. Why is every other country in the world entitled to American technology by default? Because American tech companies make a lot of money from outside of the US. For instance, 1/4 of all Apple revenues are from Europe, and 1/5 from China and China-claimed territories. Only around 40% are from the Americas (so not even the US exclusively). Would American tech companies be as successfull without ~half their revenues? In any case, it doesn't matter, the cat is out of the bag. Nobody sane and non-American would trust American frontier labs, because their models can be yanked at will by whoever is in the White House. It would be suicidal to rely on them for critical business or developer workflows. So your options are to go with Mistral or open source Chinese models, hosted within your environment, with the added benefits of being able to control the costs and being able to fine tune the models to better work for you.
- 15155 3mo ago
  > Would American tech companies be as successfull without ~half their revenues? Good luck with "if you don't let us use your AI technology, we wont allow iPhones in" - go for it.
  - sofixa 3mo ago
    Needlessly patriotic and confrontational. I'm referring to OpenAI and Antropic - would they be successfull with ~40-50% of their potential market? And iPhones, not really. But you can bet your ass that every business purchasing software in Europe is at least considering the geopolitical risks of buying American, and thinking of alternatives. Doesn't mean they'll all stop buying American software any time soon, but the shift has already started.
    - 15155 3mo ago
      > I'm referring to OpenAI and Antropic - would they be successfull with ~40-50% of their potential market? You presume that every single product they sell will be restricted: this is unrealistic. The rest of the world can have the gimped models, and as so long as they're better than other offerings, the revenue will flow - which is exactly what happens with countless other dual-use goods.
      - sofixa 3mo ago
        I'm not presuming, I flat out said: nobody sane would trust them with their business. They've been shown as unreliable suppliers due to arbitrary decisions by the White House. Nobody would want for their business automation processes to stop working because someone woke up pissy and banned the model they were using.
      - ascorbic 3mo ago
        Except the frontier models are the only reason to use them. Why would they use GPT-export when they can use the latest GLM or Kimi?
        villish 3mo ago
        It's probably too late, but my understanding is that those Chinese models would be nowhere near as good as they are currently if they weren't trained on billions of Claude/GPT tokens. Anthropic and OpenAI are still able to produce models that lead in every category but the separation between their models and open weights shrunk because of the free for all access.
InsideOutSanta 3mo ago
> Why is every other country in the world entitled to American technology by default? This kind of zero-sum thinking is what is killing the US's global influence right now.
- 15155 3mo ago
  Except it isn't zero-sum thinking: the rest of the world can have the scraps, and as long as the scraps are marginally better than the rest of the world's offerings, they will sell.
  - InsideOutSanta 3mo ago
    You do see how that is not going to work, right?
    - 15155 3mo ago
      Seems to work for every other export-controlled good and service.
      - InsideOutSanta 3mo ago
        Oh, ok, I get it. Sorry, I'm bad at detecting sarcasm on the Internet.
arevno 3mo ago
> but the regulations are not hard to comply with Except that they are. As a US citizen, I can purchase ITAR-regulated nightvision, IR lasers, etc. But that's not what's happening. Frontier models are NOT being put under ITAR. Instead, they are being placed on an arbitrary "approved access" list. So that even if you qualify under export restrictions as a citizen, if you don't have a $200B+ market cap, you're disqualified. Many people are upset about the national security restrictions, but it's MUCH WORSE than that. If I have to verify ID/citizenship, well, that sucks, but it would at least be an option. That's not what's happening here. If you are an individual or small business, no matter how "patriotic" you might be, you're out of luck.
- 15155 3mo ago
  > Except that they are. Did you read the E.O., or just Huffpo's interpretation? > ITAR This is more likely to fall under EAR, it's important to be aware-of and learn the difference. > placed on an arbitrary "approved access" list. Except that's not what the original E.O. indicated, this is just what Anthropic is choosing to do.
  - arevno 3mo ago
    > Did you read the E.O. The EO is nearly a month old, and has precisely zero to do with the de facto current situation, seeing messaging from OpenAI and Anthropic on their non-public agreements with the administration. > This is more likely to fall under EAR Which, ok, maybe, but nobody is seeing movement on this. As of right now, and indeterminately in the future, EAR is still irrelevant. No private US citizen, right now, no matter how many flags are in their yard, no matter how many TRUMP stickers are on their car, can gain access to Fable 5 or GPT-5.6, unless you have political connections or an extremely large market capitalization. > this is just what Anthropic is choosing to do. Irrelevant. This is what OpenAI is also "choosing" to do with GPT-5.6 Sol, which suggests strongly that nobody is actually choosing anything. They are being told what to do, which is don't let the plebians, no matter how patriotic, access these models. GPT-5.5 is clearly the permanent legal limit for anyone not in the S&P 500. n.b. I voted for Trump as a single-issue voter SPECIFICALLY because Harris threatened regulating ML models. This is a betrayal that WILL force loyal, patriotic US citizens into the arms of China. As soon as GLM-5.3 is released and exceeds GPT-5.5 capability, I'm not looking back.