3 ms·

This is for the preview period, but it's not a good sign. Opus 4.8 may be the last frontier model available to the masses...

jb_briant 3mo ago
If it's the case then software engineers still have the same place as pre-ClaudeCode era, because 4.8 and 5.5 are damn good at algo but notoriously bad at architecture and coordination.
cherryteastain 3mo ago
From US companies that is.
small_model 3mo ago
Yes, we will get a crippled version of Mythos, 5.6 and future models, while the chosen few will have unfettered access.
15155 3mo ago
Thousands of American engineers all over the country (most of whom probably aren't on Hacker News) work with ITAR/EAR-regulated software and hardware every single day: these regulations are really not difficult to abide if you're a citizen.
- quantumwoke 3mo ago
  And what about the rest of the world? I can't imagine US partners will abide this for long.
  - 15155 3mo ago
    They get the dual-use scraps or whatever China is hawking. Being told "no" is never fun, but the regulations are not hard to comply with (despite what Anthropic might have you believe.) > I can't imagine US partners will abide this for long. What are they going to do? Start their own Anthropic? Go for it. Why is every other country in the world entitled to American technology by default?
    - sofixa 3mo ago
      > What are they going to do? Start their own Anthropic? Go for it. Why is every other country in the world entitled to American technology by default? Because American tech companies make a lot of money from outside of the US. For instance, 1/4 of all Apple revenues are from Europe, and 1/5 from China and China-claimed territories. Only around 40% are from the Americas (so not even the US exclusively). Would American tech companies be as successfull without ~half their revenues? In any case, it doesn't matter, the cat is out of the bag. Nobody sane and non-American would trust American frontier labs, because their models can be yanked at will by whoever is in the White House. It would be suicidal to rely on them for critical business or developer workflows. So your options are to go with Mistral or open source Chinese models, hosted within your environment, with the added benefits of being able to control the costs and being able to fine tune the models to better work for you.
      - 15155 3mo ago
        > Would American tech companies be as successfull without ~half their revenues? Good luck with "if you don't let us use your AI technology, we wont allow iPhones in" - go for it.
        sofixa 3mo ago
        Needlessly patriotic and confrontational. I'm referring to OpenAI and Antropic - would they be successfull with ~40-50% of their potential market? And iPhones, not really. But you can bet your ass that every business purchasing software in Europe is at least considering the geopolitical risks of buying American, and thinking of alternatives. Doesn't mean they'll all stop buying American software any time soon, but the shift has already started.
        15155 3mo ago
        > I'm referring to OpenAI and Antropic - would they be successfull with ~40-50% of their potential market? You presume that every single product they sell will be restricted: this is unrealistic. The rest of the world can have the gimped models, and as so long as they're better than other offerings, the revenue will flow - which is exactly what happens with countless other dual-use goods.

jb_briant 3mo ago

If it's the case then software engineers still have the same place as pre-ClaudeCode era, because 4.8 and 5.5 are damn good at algo but notoriously bad at architecture and coordination.

cherryteastain 3mo ago

From US companies that is.

small_model 3mo ago

Yes, we will get a crippled version of Mythos, 5.6 and future models, while the chosen few will have unfettered access.

15155 3mo ago

Thousands of American engineers all over the country (most of whom probably aren't on Hacker News) work with ITAR/EAR-regulated software and hardware every single day: these regulations are really not difficult to abide if you're a citizen.

quantumwoke 3mo ago
And what about the rest of the world? I can't imagine US partners will abide this for long.
- 15155 3mo ago
  They get the dual-use scraps or whatever China is hawking. Being told "no" is never fun, but the regulations are not hard to comply with (despite what Anthropic might have you believe.) > I can't imagine US partners will abide this for long. What are they going to do? Start their own Anthropic? Go for it. Why is every other country in the world entitled to American technology by default?
  - sofixa 3mo ago
    > What are they going to do? Start their own Anthropic? Go for it. Why is every other country in the world entitled to American technology by default? Because American tech companies make a lot of money from outside of the US. For instance, 1/4 of all Apple revenues are from Europe, and 1/5 from China and China-claimed territories. Only around 40% are from the Americas (so not even the US exclusively). Would American tech companies be as successfull without ~half their revenues? In any case, it doesn't matter, the cat is out of the bag. Nobody sane and non-American would trust American frontier labs, because their models can be yanked at will by whoever is in the White House. It would be suicidal to rely on them for critical business or developer workflows. So your options are to go with Mistral or open source Chinese models, hosted within your environment, with the added benefits of being able to control the costs and being able to fine tune the models to better work for you.
    - 15155 3mo ago
      > Would American tech companies be as successfull without ~half their revenues? Good luck with "if you don't let us use your AI technology, we wont allow iPhones in" - go for it.
      - sofixa 3mo ago
        Needlessly patriotic and confrontational. I'm referring to OpenAI and Antropic - would they be successfull with ~40-50% of their potential market? And iPhones, not really. But you can bet your ass that every business purchasing software in Europe is at least considering the geopolitical risks of buying American, and thinking of alternatives. Doesn't mean they'll all stop buying American software any time soon, but the shift has already started.
        15155 3mo ago
        > I'm referring to OpenAI and Antropic - would they be successfull with ~40-50% of their potential market? You presume that every single product they sell will be restricted: this is unrealistic. The rest of the world can have the gimped models, and as so long as they're better than other offerings, the revenue will flow - which is exactly what happens with countless other dual-use goods.