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> The A.I. company’s advisers are pushing its chief executive, Sam Altman, to move slowly after SpaceX’s stock has been volatile and as the start-up grapples wi

by dminik 4mo ago

> The A.I. company’s advisers are pushing its chief executive, Sam Altman, to move slowly after SpaceX’s stock has been volatile and as the start-up grapples with financial challenges. Surely if your company isn't just blowing smoke then you have nothing to worry about. Or is this an admission that the insane valuation for these companies is currently just bullshit?

JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
> if your company isn't just blowing smoke then you have nothing to worry about Not really. Plenty of solid companies have to wring their hands around IPO timing based on market conditions. Sometimes, this is due to valuation multiples. Sometimes it's due to fads, e.g. investors preferring capital-structure efficiency versus low leverage.
- dminik 4mo ago
  I mean, my comment wasn't necessarily meant to be some insightful analysis. But I do find it weird that OpenAI has seemingly gone from racing Anthropic to "maybe in 6 months" in the span of a week.
  - JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
    > OpenAI has seemingly gone from racing Anthropic to "maybe in 6 months" in the span of a week When was the last time someone seriously asked if OpenAI was going to go public before Anthropic? For me, it's been at least months, maybe closer to a year. The corporate-governance complexity drove half of that, momentum the other half, and messaging from both companies having been consistent with that timeline for months sealed the deal.
    - dminik 4mo ago
      I mean, they did the "confidential S1 filing" thing a few days apart. Anthropic on 1st June: https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec OpenAI shortly before June 8: https://openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-1/ https://openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-1/ That was less than a month ago. They seemed to be on a similar pace at least from my point of view.

by dminik 4mo ago

JumpCrisscross 4mo ago

> if your company isn't just blowing smoke then you have nothing to worry about Not really. Plenty of solid companies have to wring their hands around IPO timing based on market conditions. Sometimes, this is due to valuation multiples. Sometimes it's due to fads, e.g. investors preferring capital-structure efficiency versus low leverage.

dminik 4mo ago
I mean, my comment wasn't necessarily meant to be some insightful analysis. But I do find it weird that OpenAI has seemingly gone from racing Anthropic to "maybe in 6 months" in the span of a week.
- JumpCrisscross 4mo ago
  > OpenAI has seemingly gone from racing Anthropic to "maybe in 6 months" in the span of a week When was the last time someone seriously asked if OpenAI was going to go public before Anthropic? For me, it's been at least months, maybe closer to a year. The corporate-governance complexity drove half of that, momentum the other half, and messaging from both companies having been consistent with that timeline for months sealed the deal.
  - dminik 4mo ago
    I mean, they did the "confidential S1 filing" thing a few days apart. Anthropic on 1st June: https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec https://www.anthropic.com/news/confidential-draft-s1-sec OpenAI shortly before June 8: https://openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-1/ https://openai.com/index/openai-submits-confidential-s-1/ That was less than a month ago. They seemed to be on a similar pace at least from my point of view.