4 ms·

>what's the timeline of the RAM shortage ending? Barring unusual market forces like Taiwan invasion the timeline to ending the acute shortage seems to be mid 2

>what's the timeline of the RAM shortage ending? Barring unusual market forces like Taiwan invasion the timeline to ending the acute shortage seems to be mid 2028. The AI still has plenty of money to burn and is the biggest driver, but we’re also shortly before gaming consoles ought to release a new gen (although who knows whether they won’t get delayed for a while). There was even going to be a small upgrade cycle for nerds waiting for 2nm fabbed devices, same as pre-ai datacenters looking for power efficiency. Plenty of pent-up demand, too, as many people simply make do with what they have but will upgrade once the silliness stops. If you’re looking for ssd/ram prices to go back to the low of 2024/early 2025 it probably won’t happen before China catches up, which will be a while yet. There is some build up of new capcity happening from current manufacturers but it’s significantly less than what the demand increased by.

15155 4mo ago
> Taiwan invasion Are many DRAM fabs in Taiwan? Does TSMC manufacture DRAM for SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, or CXMT?
- Chris_May 4mo ago
  If TSMC is blown up, how much RAM is used in new datacenters?
  - 15155 4mo ago
    I was thinking this as well - DRAM and NAND demand instantly crashes because the primary chip supply ceases to exist. This "shortage" will pass.
forestingfisher 4mo ago
China won’t invade Taiwan. Be realistic
- lantry 4mo ago
  If you wanted to be realistic, you wouldn't say for sure that they won't.
- SXX 4mo ago
  Uh oh 5 years ago nobody would believe there will be a war in Europe with almost 1,000,000 dead. And now China knows that both US and EU are weak and cant even deal with Russia or Iran. And they also have their own semiconductors manufacturing and cut off from what TSMC produces anyway.
- shepherdjerred 4mo ago
  And Russia would never invade Ukraine. And Germany could never make it past the Maginot Line
- Danox 4mo ago
  [flagged]
- fmajid 3mo ago
  That was before Trump blew up half the US' munitions inventory in Iran. If Xi is serious about taking back Taiwan, and I don't see why we should doubt his sincerity, the temptation to invade must be irresistible. The only thing that is holding him back is that he purged nearly the entire top brass of the PLA for gross corruption (like "fueling" its ICBMs with water), and he has no idea if his Potemkin army is actually capable of anything.

15155 4mo ago

> Taiwan invasion Are many DRAM fabs in Taiwan? Does TSMC manufacture DRAM for SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron, or CXMT?

Chris_May 4mo ago
If TSMC is blown up, how much RAM is used in new datacenters?
- 15155 4mo ago
  I was thinking this as well - DRAM and NAND demand instantly crashes because the primary chip supply ceases to exist. This "shortage" will pass.

forestingfisher 4mo ago

China won’t invade Taiwan. Be realistic

lantry 4mo ago
If you wanted to be realistic, you wouldn't say for sure that they won't.
SXX 4mo ago
Uh oh 5 years ago nobody would believe there will be a war in Europe with almost 1,000,000 dead. And now China knows that both US and EU are weak and cant even deal with Russia or Iran. And they also have their own semiconductors manufacturing and cut off from what TSMC produces anyway.
shepherdjerred 4mo ago
And Russia would never invade Ukraine. And Germany could never make it past the Maginot Line
Danox 4mo ago
[flagged]
fmajid 3mo ago
That was before Trump blew up half the US' munitions inventory in Iran. If Xi is serious about taking back Taiwan, and I don't see why we should doubt his sincerity, the temptation to invade must be irresistible. The only thing that is holding him back is that he purged nearly the entire top brass of the PLA for gross corruption (like "fueling" its ICBMs with water), and he has no idea if his Potemkin army is actually capable of anything.