4 ms·

I wake up every morning amazed that there were enough people foolish enough to buy a company with only $18B in revenue and no profit at basically at the valuati

I wake up every morning amazed that there were enough people foolish enough to buy a company with only $18B in revenue and no profit at basically at the valuation of Microsoft (a company with $300B in revenue and $100B in profit).

fourseventy 4mo ago
Short it then
- neogodless 4mo ago
  There are more than those two options, both of which are "take unnecessary risk on a hugely uncertain investment."
  - the__alchemist 4mo ago
    If you were reasonably confident the stock was overvalued and/or would go down, why would you not short it, (Or similar)? "Talk is cheap" and "Putting money where mouth is" are both trite, but applicable here. In the short term, this can misfire, but as a consistent mindset long term, it would expose whether there is value in these assessments. To help you understand my mindset here: Picture a simple game or bet. RNG/dice etc. 55% chance for a $10 payout; 45% chance to lose $10. You would keep on rolling that die, right? I believe this is is close enough of a comparison. Stated another way: Someone else who has no confident predictions about the market and is in index funds or similar, would love to be able to make confident statements about a stock (SPCX or w/e), because it would be an effective edge. They wouldn't just post about it on the internet; they would take appropriate positions.
    - thinkharderdev 4mo ago
      > 55% chance for a $10 payout; 45% chance to lose $10. You would keep on rolling that die, right? The answer is that it depends? If I have $1B then yeah I would roll the dice and keep rolling as long as they let me. If I have $100? Maybe not because you can go very easily go broke even if each bet is positive EV.
- fluidcruft 4mo ago
  Cults remain irrational longer than the sane can remain solvent. Particularly when the cult captures regulators and governments.
- the__alchemist 4mo ago
  I'm with the parent post, and I did!
an0malous 4mo ago
A ton of them are on this thread
- N_Lens 4mo ago
  They would be very upset with your comment if they could read!

fourseventy 4mo ago

Short it then

neogodless 4mo ago
There are more than those two options, both of which are "take unnecessary risk on a hugely uncertain investment."
- the__alchemist 4mo ago
  If you were reasonably confident the stock was overvalued and/or would go down, why would you not short it, (Or similar)? "Talk is cheap" and "Putting money where mouth is" are both trite, but applicable here. In the short term, this can misfire, but as a consistent mindset long term, it would expose whether there is value in these assessments. To help you understand my mindset here: Picture a simple game or bet. RNG/dice etc. 55% chance for a $10 payout; 45% chance to lose $10. You would keep on rolling that die, right? I believe this is is close enough of a comparison. Stated another way: Someone else who has no confident predictions about the market and is in index funds or similar, would love to be able to make confident statements about a stock (SPCX or w/e), because it would be an effective edge. They wouldn't just post about it on the internet; they would take appropriate positions.
  - thinkharderdev 4mo ago
    > 55% chance for a $10 payout; 45% chance to lose $10. You would keep on rolling that die, right? The answer is that it depends? If I have $1B then yeah I would roll the dice and keep rolling as long as they let me. If I have $100? Maybe not because you can go very easily go broke even if each bet is positive EV.
fluidcruft 4mo ago
Cults remain irrational longer than the sane can remain solvent. Particularly when the cult captures regulators and governments.
the__alchemist 4mo ago
I'm with the parent post, and I did!

an0malous 4mo ago

A ton of them are on this thread

N_Lens 4mo ago
They would be very upset with your comment if they could read!