3 ms·

I think there's a bit of a definitional skew happening here. The data isn't that good around this stuff. Heat as the primary factor, vs heat related deaths is

by gonzo41 3mo ago

I think there's a bit of a definitional skew happening here. The data isn't that good around this stuff. Heat as the primary factor, vs heat related deaths is significant. Heat is a system stressor. There's plenty of people having heart attacks and dying from weight related issues that probably got pushed over the edge by a hot day in Nevada that are missed in official stats.

Ferret7446 3mo ago
I can't imagine this is significant unless there is a demonstrated reporting bias between the US and Europe. Otherwise I'd assume it's a wash
- Filligree 3mo ago
  There is. In Texas, if a field worker has a heart attack on a hot day it’ll be reported as a heart attack. In France, the same exact situation would be reported as a heat casualty leading to heart attack.
- IneffablePigeon 3mo ago
  There was a good More Or Less (uk radio programme) episode about this last week. Essentially, the European statistics on this tend to be based on excess mortality during hot periods, while US stats currently are much more about what words are used on death certificates. Very different measures and hard to compare.
  - verteu 3mo ago
    You can compare modeled heat deaths across different countries, Western Europe is still significantly higher. Eg Figure 3C in https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7618246/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7618246/ It doesn't affect life expectancy much, because most deaths are among the elderly (70% over 80 IIRC).
- ajmurmann 3mo ago
  US numbers in the popular twitter stat are officially recoded heat deaths whereas EU numbers are all excess deaths. Supposedly if you look at excess deaths the numbers for both places look the same. IMO even that's not a proper comparison though because you cannot compare Alaska to Texas, or Rome to Helsinki and thus throwing all of these in together for discussing heat deaths us just pure nonsense and rage bait.

by gonzo41 3mo ago

Ferret7446 3mo ago

I can't imagine this is significant unless there is a demonstrated reporting bias between the US and Europe. Otherwise I'd assume it's a wash

Filligree 3mo ago
There is. In Texas, if a field worker has a heart attack on a hot day it’ll be reported as a heart attack. In France, the same exact situation would be reported as a heat casualty leading to heart attack.
IneffablePigeon 3mo ago
There was a good More Or Less (uk radio programme) episode about this last week. Essentially, the European statistics on this tend to be based on excess mortality during hot periods, while US stats currently are much more about what words are used on death certificates. Very different measures and hard to compare.
- verteu 3mo ago
  You can compare modeled heat deaths across different countries, Western Europe is still significantly higher. Eg Figure 3C in https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7618246/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7618246/ It doesn't affect life expectancy much, because most deaths are among the elderly (70% over 80 IIRC).
ajmurmann 3mo ago
US numbers in the popular twitter stat are officially recoded heat deaths whereas EU numbers are all excess deaths. Supposedly if you look at excess deaths the numbers for both places look the same. IMO even that's not a proper comparison though because you cannot compare Alaska to Texas, or Rome to Helsinki and thus throwing all of these in together for discussing heat deaths us just pure nonsense and rage bait.