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The estimate that AI companies need to replace 27% of jobs to service their debt is interesting. But at least Anthropic and Meta seem to have their eyes on repl
by qnleigh 4mo ago
The estimate that AI companies need to replace 27% of jobs to service their debt is interesting. But at least Anthropic and Meta seem to have their eyes on replacing software engineers.
There are ~1.6M software engineers on the US [0], earning a bit under 150k/year on average [1]. If AI companies captured all of that spend, that amounts to about 250B/year. The article assumed that they need around 300B/year to keep up with their debt.
At least based on Meta's recent behavior, forcing 30-50% of developers to switch to data labeling, it looks like that is actually their game plan.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_engineering_demographics https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Software_engineering_demograph...
[1] https://www.indeed.com/career/software-engineer/salaries https://www.indeed.com/career/software-engineer/salaries
- whimsicalism 4mo agoobviating software engineers is effectively AGI-complete and entails obviating most labor in existence .
- hdgvhicv 4mo agoIf that doesn’t happen then open models catch up in months.
- qnleigh 4mo agoI think the concept of "AGI-complete" was interesting but had been falsified. LLMs have jagged intelligence, meaning that they are good at some things while being counterintuitively bad at other things that seem much easier. Especially given that a lot of software engineering can be trained via RL, it's entirely plausible that they will get extremely good at that while lagging in other things.
- whimsicalism 4mo agoOh yeah? Who will be working on rounding out the jaggedness of the LLMs and improving the generalizability of their RL environs, etc.?