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Once locals get to Opus levels I think it we may see a phase change because that + a reasonably competent programmer is going to be a very powerful combination

Once locals get to Opus levels I think it we may see a phase change because that + a reasonably competent programmer is going to be a very powerful combination for most practical programming problems. Frontier models may eventually achieve super-intelligence (no opinion beyond mild skepticism) but super-intelligence isn't necessary for most practical day-to-day programming. The problems, as always, become communication, understanding what users really need, etc. that is, softer skills.

cheonic52749 4mo ago
> Frontier models may eventually achieve super-intelligence but super-intelligence isn't necessary for most practical day-to-day programming I think you forgot what super-intelligence means…
- recursivedoubts 4mo ago
  tbh, not sure i ever understood it
  - LoganDark 4mo ago
    A superintelligence is one that exceeds human intelligence in all areas. Which roughly translates to learning, adapting, and performing more quickly and efficiently than even the best humans. This is closely related to "the singularity", which is when technological growth becomes uncontrollable by humanity.
    - bryanlarsen 4mo ago
      That sounds like a definition designed for goal shifting. This AI is better than human at 99.9% of things, but humans are better at pooping. Therefore we don't yet have a superintelligence.
      - LoganDark 4mo ago
        If that AI were given an identical human body (and interface to that body) to someone who had not yet learned how to do that, and it outperformed them in figuring it out, then that would settle it. Otherwise I don't see the comparison. If I'm intelligent enough to use a tool, but I don't have the tool, that doesn't mean anyone who does have the tool is automatically more intelligent than me. Likewise, comparing my performance without the tool against someone's performance with the tool wouldn't be benchmarking their performance, only benchmarking them with the tool's performance. The fairer comparison would be against me also with the tool.
      - wqaatwt 4mo ago
        A basic calculator is 100% better than humans at all the things its designed to do.
  - sdenton4 4mo ago
    In discussions of super intelligence and ai takeoff and such, I find it helpful to ask why the smartest humans usually aren't heads of state...
wqaatwt 4mo ago
> Once locals get to Opus levels I find it hard to imagine it would ever be cost efficient vs hosted/cloud i.e. you should always be able to run faster and/or better models remotely at a comparable price since its just way more efficient due to batching

cheonic52749 4mo ago

> Frontier models may eventually achieve super-intelligence but super-intelligence isn't necessary for most practical day-to-day programming I think you forgot what super-intelligence means…

recursivedoubts 4mo ago
tbh, not sure i ever understood it
- LoganDark 4mo ago
  A superintelligence is one that exceeds human intelligence in all areas. Which roughly translates to learning, adapting, and performing more quickly and efficiently than even the best humans. This is closely related to "the singularity", which is when technological growth becomes uncontrollable by humanity.
  - bryanlarsen 4mo ago
    That sounds like a definition designed for goal shifting. This AI is better than human at 99.9% of things, but humans are better at pooping. Therefore we don't yet have a superintelligence.
    - LoganDark 4mo ago
      If that AI were given an identical human body (and interface to that body) to someone who had not yet learned how to do that, and it outperformed them in figuring it out, then that would settle it. Otherwise I don't see the comparison. If I'm intelligent enough to use a tool, but I don't have the tool, that doesn't mean anyone who does have the tool is automatically more intelligent than me. Likewise, comparing my performance without the tool against someone's performance with the tool wouldn't be benchmarking their performance, only benchmarking them with the tool's performance. The fairer comparison would be against me also with the tool.
    - wqaatwt 4mo ago
      A basic calculator is 100% better than humans at all the things its designed to do.
- sdenton4 4mo ago
  In discussions of super intelligence and ai takeoff and such, I find it helpful to ask why the smartest humans usually aren't heads of state...

wqaatwt 4mo ago

> Once locals get to Opus levels I find it hard to imagine it would ever be cost efficient vs hosted/cloud i.e. you should always be able to run faster and/or better models remotely at a comparable price since its just way more efficient due to batching