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Wrong and wrong. AR1 predicted 5-14 cm over 20 years; the actual rise was 6 cm. The reality? 11 mm or less over the last 2 decades! The article claims 11 mm o
by uvdiv 14y ago
Wrong and wrong. AR1 predicted 5-14 cm over 20 years; the actual rise was 6 cm.
The reality? 11 mm or less over the last 2 decades!
The article claims 11 mm of water solely from melting ice sheets. It says the total increase was five times larger than that.
The increase over the last 19.5 years, 1993 to mid-2012, was between 53-68 mm. The average rate was 3.1 mm/year +/- 0.4.
http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/2012rel4-global-mean-sea-level-time-series-seasonal-signals-removed http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/2012rel4-global-mean-se...
The original IPCC report on global warming predicted an average rate of global mean sea level rise of about 6 cm per decade.
IPCC AR1 did not predict 6 cm/decade rate for this time; it predicted 6 cm/decade averaged over the century 2000-2100, starting slowly and then accelerating. (Rising CO2 levels accelerate melting; economic growth accelerates CO2 rise).
If you look at AR1's actual forecast,
http://i.imgur.com/2r67Z.png http://i.imgur.com/2r67Z.png
What it predicted for the near-term, 1990-2010 was (eyeballing the graph): a 9 cm rise, lower range 5 cm, upper range 14 cm. A rate of 2.5-7 mm/year.
The graph is from page 277.
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_chapter_09.pdf http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/far/wg_I/ipcc_far_wg_I_chapte...