3 ms·
> Polymarket gives 32% chance the ban on Fable is lifted this month. Totally meaningless.
by root_axis 3mo ago
> Polymarket gives 32% chance the ban on Fable is lifted this month.
Totally meaningless.
- furyofantares 3mo agoIt's June 30 and the ban has been lifted, I'm gonna say Polymarket's 32% chance of the ban being lifted in June was far and away a better guess than bemoaning that non-Americans will never access an American model better than Opus 4.8.
- root_axis 3mo agoPolymarket's 32% wasn't "a guess", it's just noise with zero connection to the actual likelihood of the event.