3 ms·

> From what risk level without them? “Approximately 0.6 percent of women will be diagnosed with cervical cancer at some point during their lifetime, based on 2

> From what risk level without them? “Approximately 0.6 percent of women will be diagnosed with cervical cancer at some point during their lifetime, based on 2021–2023 data” [1]. Given “reports of serious health issues after HPV vaccination were consistently rare—around 1.8 per 100,000 HPV vaccine doses, or 0.0018%” [2], a woman suffers a 300x higher hazard (assuming we measure a serious vaccine reaction as being equivalent to cancer, which is silly) from going unvaccinated. > How many people actually die of cervical cancer before age 30? 4,462 young women under the age of 30 died of cervical cancer in 2022 worldwide [3]. [1] https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/cervix.html https://seer.cancer.gov/statfacts/html/cervix.html [2] https://www.cancer.gov/news-events/cancer-currents-blog/2021/hpv-vaccine-parents-safety-concerns https://www.cancer.gov/news-events/cancer-currents-blog/2021... [3] https://gco.iarc.who.int/today/en/dataviz/pie?mode=population&group_populations=0&types=1&sexes=2&age_end=5 https://gco.iarc.who.int/today/en/dataviz/pie?mode=populatio... Mortality, cervix uteri, females, 0 to 29

moralestapia 5mo ago
Thanks for the data. 4,462 out of the whole population (of women etc.). Would you subjectively describe that number as "almost zero"?
- JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
  > Would you subjectively describe that number as "almost zero"? Sure. If the only effect were on under-30s, this wouldn’t be a great vaccine. What 5,000 people is good for, however, is confidently measuring decline in a cohort. Zero deaths, even against a baseline of tens, strongly implies this should cross into the tend or hundreds of thousands over the next decades in populations that keep vaccination rates up.
  - somenameforme 5mo ago
    Looking at healthcare stuff globally is misleading because of Africa. The ongoing HIV/AIDS epidemic there makes death rates for anything that HIV/AIDS can contribute to highly malinformative. For instance in southern Africa, more than 60% of women with cervical cancer also have HIV. [1] Oddly enough I can't find exact death rates from cervical cancer paired amongst those who had HIV/AIDS but this [2] hints at it, with 90% of all cervical cancer deaths coming in low/middle income countries, and with the "highest burden" (plurality I guess?) coming from sub-Saharan Africa where rates of HIV are the highest. [2] [1] - https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7815633/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7815633/ [2] - hhttps://www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/featurestories/2019/may/20190531_cervical-cancer-hiv https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/featurestori...
    - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
      Very fair. These are UK data, and I’m unfortunately not well versed in their sources. Our American sources don’t seem to measure by age consistently enough for me to gather an estimate. If there is a comorbidity irrelevant outside Africa and rural Southeasr Asia, that will mess up the numbers.
  - moralestapia 5mo ago
    >Zero deaths It's not zero deaths though, it's "almost zero".
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moralestapia 5mo ago

Thanks for the data. 4,462 out of the whole population (of women etc.). Would you subjectively describe that number as "almost zero"?

JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
> Would you subjectively describe that number as "almost zero"? Sure. If the only effect were on under-30s, this wouldn’t be a great vaccine. What 5,000 people is good for, however, is confidently measuring decline in a cohort. Zero deaths, even against a baseline of tens, strongly implies this should cross into the tend or hundreds of thousands over the next decades in populations that keep vaccination rates up.
- somenameforme 5mo ago
  Looking at healthcare stuff globally is misleading because of Africa. The ongoing HIV/AIDS epidemic there makes death rates for anything that HIV/AIDS can contribute to highly malinformative. For instance in southern Africa, more than 60% of women with cervical cancer also have HIV. [1] Oddly enough I can't find exact death rates from cervical cancer paired amongst those who had HIV/AIDS but this [2] hints at it, with 90% of all cervical cancer deaths coming in low/middle income countries, and with the "highest burden" (plurality I guess?) coming from sub-Saharan Africa where rates of HIV are the highest. [2] [1] - https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7815633/ https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7815633/ [2] - hhttps://www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/featurestories/2019/may/20190531_cervical-cancer-hiv https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/featurestori...
  - JumpCrisscross 5mo ago
    Very fair. These are UK data, and I’m unfortunately not well versed in their sources. Our American sources don’t seem to measure by age consistently enough for me to gather an estimate. If there is a comorbidity irrelevant outside Africa and rural Southeasr Asia, that will mess up the numbers.
- moralestapia 5mo ago
  >Zero deaths It's not zero deaths though, it's "almost zero".

deleted 5mo ago

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