4 ms·

It's not that you plan to do nothing; rather, it's because you can do nothing about them. The only people who have any sway are the various foreign offices and

It's not that you plan to do nothing; rather, it's because you can do nothing about them. The only people who have any sway are the various foreign offices and the country leaders. But even their power is incredibly limited, because humanity moves like the tide. Sure, Trump can continue chastising Netanyahu for continuing Israel's attacks into Gaza and Lebanon (which will sabotage the already comical agreement between the USA and Iran), but Netanyahu is in a bind with an October election coming up (and a hardliner rival who's already calling him a 3-failed-war-leader), so he can't change course no matter how much Trump (who needs a Republican victory in November) gets pissed off and threatens him. And even those threats will largely be empty because losing the religious right would be catastrophic. And no one else at either helm could do any better. And because of that, Iran knows it can just continue like it always has, slowly working towards a bomb, with Saudia Arabia and Turkey soon following suit (they can't allow Iran to be the only nuclear power in the region - not with an isolationist USA). Then we have Russia, whose insecurity and "defensive expansionism" spans centuries, stemming from its geography, so there's simply no way to placate them, and no way for them to ever be happy about NATO (which everyone already knows is a paper tiger anyway - it's just a matter of sussing out where the real alliance lines lay). So yeah, you're not going to solve it. I'm not going to solve it. Nobody's gonna solve it. We're just gonna ride the tide.

inglor_cz 4mo ago
Netanyahu could also simply retire, he has been in politics since the 1970s. But he would probably end up in jail on corruption charges, which is why he perseveres. At this moment I wonder if the entire region would be better off if the Knesset passed a law "Netanyahu is universally pardoned, but must GTFO of the country and leave politics entirely". Cynical, but maybe the result would be worth it. On a more positive note, I can see Iran dropping their nuclear program. It is expensive and the same money could be diverted to the drone and missile program, which is what led to them not losing the war. Meanwhile, Russia has a very extensive and expensive nuclear program, and it didn't help them against Ukrainian drones burning and exploding strategic factories a few kilometers from the Kremlin. The threshold for an actual use of nukes is very high and they are losing a lot of their deterrence value.
- kstenerud 4mo ago
  I Netanyahu retires, Eisenkot or Bennett take up the mantle, which is arguably worse. But he's got no reason to retire, given how he's polling now. Iran isn't going to drop their nuclear program. They know full well that IF this deal actually works out (it won't, but just for the sake of argument...), they can go back to their clandestine enrichment program and nobody will actually look very hard (just like before). It'll be a return to normalcy, except they'll also be exacting tolls on the strait and building up with that new fat wad of free cash. And if it doesn't work out, they just stand firm until the USA gets tired and goes home with a fig leaf "we won" as November nears. Either way, similar result. Russia is going to lose this war in a slow and grinding attrition that will smack of Afghanistan, that's not in question. But their ambitions aren't going to die. When they're ready again a decade later (and if NATO is still a thing), they'll grab a chunk of NATO land and extend their nuclear umbrella over it, daring the paper tiger to do something.
  - throwaway198846 4mo ago
    > Eisenkot or Bennett take up the mantle, which is arguably worse. As far as I'm aware there is no reason to believe so
    - kstenerud 4mo ago
      https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-899921 https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/art...
      - inglor_cz 4mo ago
        I think the question was "in what sense are Eisenkot and Bennett worse"? I remember Bennett's shuttle diplomacy between Russia in Ukraine in 2022 and he struck me like a person who values peace more than Netanyahu does.
      - throwaway198846 4mo ago
        I meant the worse part
inigyou 4mo ago
Trump could literally just stop sending billions of taxpayer dollars to Netanyahu and the war would end - probably not well for Netanyahu. He could use that fact as leverage. He isn't.
- unparagoned 4mo ago
  It’s not that easy the money is going to the US arms companies. So he would have to stop giving his donors and mates money.
8note 4mo ago
> they can't allow Iran to be the only nuclear power in the region - not with an isolationist USA isnt that leaving out the current only nuclear power in the region?

inglor_cz 4mo ago

Netanyahu could also simply retire, he has been in politics since the 1970s. But he would probably end up in jail on corruption charges, which is why he perseveres. At this moment I wonder if the entire region would be better off if the Knesset passed a law "Netanyahu is universally pardoned, but must GTFO of the country and leave politics entirely". Cynical, but maybe the result would be worth it. On a more positive note, I can see Iran dropping their nuclear program. It is expensive and the same money could be diverted to the drone and missile program, which is what led to them not losing the war. Meanwhile, Russia has a very extensive and expensive nuclear program, and it didn't help them against Ukrainian drones burning and exploding strategic factories a few kilometers from the Kremlin. The threshold for an actual use of nukes is very high and they are losing a lot of their deterrence value.

kstenerud 4mo ago
I Netanyahu retires, Eisenkot or Bennett take up the mantle, which is arguably worse. But he's got no reason to retire, given how he's polling now. Iran isn't going to drop their nuclear program. They know full well that IF this deal actually works out (it won't, but just for the sake of argument...), they can go back to their clandestine enrichment program and nobody will actually look very hard (just like before). It'll be a return to normalcy, except they'll also be exacting tolls on the strait and building up with that new fat wad of free cash. And if it doesn't work out, they just stand firm until the USA gets tired and goes home with a fig leaf "we won" as November nears. Either way, similar result. Russia is going to lose this war in a slow and grinding attrition that will smack of Afghanistan, that's not in question. But their ambitions aren't going to die. When they're ready again a decade later (and if NATO is still a thing), they'll grab a chunk of NATO land and extend their nuclear umbrella over it, daring the paper tiger to do something.
- throwaway198846 4mo ago
  > Eisenkot or Bennett take up the mantle, which is arguably worse. As far as I'm aware there is no reason to believe so
  - kstenerud 4mo ago
    https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/article-899921 https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/politics-and-diplomacy/art...
    - inglor_cz 4mo ago
      I think the question was "in what sense are Eisenkot and Bennett worse"? I remember Bennett's shuttle diplomacy between Russia in Ukraine in 2022 and he struck me like a person who values peace more than Netanyahu does.
    - throwaway198846 4mo ago
      I meant the worse part

inigyou 4mo ago

Trump could literally just stop sending billions of taxpayer dollars to Netanyahu and the war would end - probably not well for Netanyahu. He could use that fact as leverage. He isn't.

unparagoned 4mo ago
It’s not that easy the money is going to the US arms companies. So he would have to stop giving his donors and mates money.

8note 4mo ago

> they can't allow Iran to be the only nuclear power in the region - not with an isolationist USA isnt that leaving out the current only nuclear power in the region?