3 ms·

Unlike most times this affects people’s pocketbooks- the only real political motivation.

by conception 4mo ago

ravoori 4mo ago
Approval still rides at 37%, which is pretty decent given the amount of turmoil that has been unleashed
- kelseyfrog 4mo ago
  That tracks. My rule of thumb is that political topics have a 33% group that will never budge and the remaining 4-5% accounts for the lizard man constant[1]. 1. https://www.spencergreenberg.com/2024/07/the-lizardmans-constant-causes-the-nonsense-factor-a-hidden-source-of-false-conclusions-in-research/ https://www.spencergreenberg.com/2024/07/the-lizardmans-cons...
  - 0cf8612b2e1e 4mo ago
    Nixon was about 25% support before he resigned.
    - kelseyfrog 4mo ago
      You have to multiply by the Lead-Poisoning coefficient for all events taking place in the 1970s.
      - 0cf8612b2e1e 4mo ago
        Heh. Given the increased strength of party-identity, I fully agree that the floor of support will be higher than in the past.
        mindslight 4mo ago
        "Strength of party-identity" kind of buries the lede, don't you think? The mainstream Republican party has become a death cult. Individually-tailored mass media is a hell of a drug.
- whateveracct 4mo ago
  Trump is already hitting disapproval levels seen during the end of W's second term. He actually is bleeding support and politically damaged due to all this. It gets worse when you break it down into key demographics. In the same way W's presidency influenced millennials away from the GOP, Trump is doing the same for young voters today too. Non-whites and Gen Z were plus for him in 2024. He has absolutely cratered his support in those two demos. We will see how the midterms go :)
- sidewndr46 4mo ago
  He's not really up for re-election, so I'm not sure what approval numbers have to do with it
  - locknitpicker 4mo ago
    > He's not really up for re-election, so I'm not sure what approval numbers have to do with it As an outsider, it seems the US midterm elections are a couple of months from now. If republicans lose, Donald Trump will most likely be impeached for all the mind numbingly high-level corruption and involvement in a pedophile ring.
    - 0cf8612b2e1e 4mo ago
      Quite unlikely to get an impeachment. While there is the (long) possibility of Dems flipping the House and Senate, they will not alone have the votes to force him out without a number of Republicans to defect in the Senate. Anything is possible, but given how much insanity has already been tacitly approved, the economy would have to hit truly apocalyptic levels to expect that outcome.
    - sidewndr46 4mo ago
      impeachment is effectively a legal fantasy in the United States. The government does not punish it's own. We couldn't impeach Richard Nixon, a career criminal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_efforts_to_impeach_presidents_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_efforts_to_impeach_pre...
- cosmicgadget 4mo ago
  Can this abundant turmoil be refined into gasoline? Asking for a friend.
- FireBeyond 4mo ago
  As of yesterday, some sources have it as low as 29% (well, of his handling of the economy): https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-approval-hits-second-term-low-new-nbc-news-poll-shows-12072062 https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-approval-hits-second-term-lo...

Unlike most times this affects people’s pocketbooks- the only real political motivation.

ravoori 4mo ago

Approval still rides at 37%, which is pretty decent given the amount of turmoil that has been unleashed

kelseyfrog 4mo ago
That tracks. My rule of thumb is that political topics have a 33% group that will never budge and the remaining 4-5% accounts for the lizard man constant[1]. 1. https://www.spencergreenberg.com/2024/07/the-lizardmans-constant-causes-the-nonsense-factor-a-hidden-source-of-false-conclusions-in-research/ https://www.spencergreenberg.com/2024/07/the-lizardmans-cons...
- 0cf8612b2e1e 4mo ago
  Nixon was about 25% support before he resigned.
  - kelseyfrog 4mo ago
    You have to multiply by the Lead-Poisoning coefficient for all events taking place in the 1970s.
    - 0cf8612b2e1e 4mo ago
      Heh. Given the increased strength of party-identity, I fully agree that the floor of support will be higher than in the past.
      - mindslight 4mo ago
        "Strength of party-identity" kind of buries the lede, don't you think? The mainstream Republican party has become a death cult. Individually-tailored mass media is a hell of a drug.
whateveracct 4mo ago
Trump is already hitting disapproval levels seen during the end of W's second term. He actually is bleeding support and politically damaged due to all this. It gets worse when you break it down into key demographics. In the same way W's presidency influenced millennials away from the GOP, Trump is doing the same for young voters today too. Non-whites and Gen Z were plus for him in 2024. He has absolutely cratered his support in those two demos. We will see how the midterms go :)
sidewndr46 4mo ago
He's not really up for re-election, so I'm not sure what approval numbers have to do with it
- locknitpicker 4mo ago
  > He's not really up for re-election, so I'm not sure what approval numbers have to do with it As an outsider, it seems the US midterm elections are a couple of months from now. If republicans lose, Donald Trump will most likely be impeached for all the mind numbingly high-level corruption and involvement in a pedophile ring.
  - 0cf8612b2e1e 4mo ago
    Quite unlikely to get an impeachment. While there is the (long) possibility of Dems flipping the House and Senate, they will not alone have the votes to force him out without a number of Republicans to defect in the Senate. Anything is possible, but given how much insanity has already been tacitly approved, the economy would have to hit truly apocalyptic levels to expect that outcome.
  - sidewndr46 4mo ago
    impeachment is effectively a legal fantasy in the United States. The government does not punish it's own. We couldn't impeach Richard Nixon, a career criminal. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_efforts_to_impeach_presidents_of_the_United_States https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_efforts_to_impeach_pre...
cosmicgadget 4mo ago
Can this abundant turmoil be refined into gasoline? Asking for a friend.
FireBeyond 4mo ago
As of yesterday, some sources have it as low as 29% (well, of his handling of the economy): https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-approval-hits-second-term-low-new-nbc-news-poll-shows-12072062 https://www.newsweek.com/trumps-approval-hits-second-term-lo...