4 ms·

I think the essence of the question you responded to is: The U.S. has a gigantic navy and couldn’t force safe passage through Hormuz. Why is this the case? I

by symian 4mo ago

I think the essence of the question you responded to is: The U.S. has a gigantic navy and couldn’t force safe passage through Hormuz. Why is this the case? Is the U.S. wasting its money given this?

AtlasBarfed 4mo ago
The answer is yes. The world is deglobalizing, and while drones may not exert Blue water power projection, they now dominate littoral power projection. Marine invasions may be impossible in drone combat without drone superiority, and right now, Joan superiority is not a thing that I think exists between two fully drone enabled armies And note the US army is not a fully drone enabled army.
s1artibartfast 4mo ago
I think it was a much more specific question. Both are valid. Iran is a big country ~100 million people. Aircraft carriers can launch planes to disable specific targets. They cant take out an entire country. They could have been more useful if the US was waging total war against Iran, but it isn't/wasnt.
walrus01 4mo ago
If we say that you can fit a small unit of guys equipped with Shahed-136 and launcher, or small missile launcher into just about any civilian garage or small industrial/warehouse-sized structure within a 300 km radius of the strait of hormuz, it would be quite impossible to air strike every possible hiding site without causing absolutely abhorrent and unacceptable civilian casualties. The capability of the IRGC and Iranian regime to hide small to medium sized drone and missile launch equipment within civilian infrastructure (nevermind caves, bunkers, etc) within range of the strait exceeds the capability of the US forces to destroy or remove it. As long as major shipping companies believe that the Iranians retain enough drone and missile capacity to hold the straight under threat, they're not going to sail through it. The only possible way would be an extremely bloody and manpower intensive ground operation to hunt it down at the boots on the ground level.
- godwinson__4-8 4mo ago
  Which will also not work. America knew how to do this once. Berlin is still in a sense occupied by American troops in that we still have bases there, and through NATO subsidize their defense and way of life. You simply can't kill your way out of political conflicts into perpetuity, unless you truly plan on annihilating everyone. That is part of what makes the alcoholic running the DoD so galling. His thesis on places like Fallujah is essentially there wasn't enough bloodshed. Americans would be vacationing in Baghdad if only there had been more violence.
  - walrus01 4mo ago
    > That is part of what makes the alcoholic running the DoD so galling Pretty much what I said in Jan/Feb of this year when the major, bloody nationwide protests of Iranians (est. 15,000 to 40,000 death toll killed by their own "government") kicked off domestically in Iran. Specifically, that the worst possible people were running the executive branch and DoD at this moment in history and that they would rush headlong into something foolish.
    - godwinson__4-8 4mo ago
      Of course they didn't even prevent those massacres. They watched it happen. As I recall the administration seemed unconvinced of this as a pretext for war, and by the time the decapitation started the regime already had regained total control of the streets. And now a negotiation to give the same regime an economic lifeline just so the administration doesn't have to explain to someone in Iowa why the price of gas is going up. I recall Reza Pahlavi on Fox News engaging in the delusion that the current administration cared about the Iranian people. Where is he now?
      - Danox 4mo ago
        Current American administration unfortunately only care’s and listens to the 1% ruling class in any particular country they support that’s been the problem pretty much since 1945 and because of that they never pay attention to what most of the people in the country care about on the ground, and that’s been a problem in Central and South America and most other countries in the second and third world we just keep getting it wrong and we’re simply running out of steam and money…
comicjk 4mo ago
Historically, this is the norm. The British Navy in WWI was a behemoth, but still couldn't force safe passage through the mines and cannons of the Dardanelles Strait against what was considered a third-rate power. "A ship's a fool to fight a fort."
Gud 4mo ago
Because Iran is a huge country with a powerful military and the straight of Hormuz is a tiny spec of water? Obviously this operation was a massive waste.

by symian 4mo ago

I think the essence of the question you responded to is: The U.S. has a gigantic navy and couldn’t force safe passage through Hormuz. Why is this the case? Is the U.S. wasting its money given this?

AtlasBarfed 4mo ago

The answer is yes. The world is deglobalizing, and while drones may not exert Blue water power projection, they now dominate littoral power projection. Marine invasions may be impossible in drone combat without drone superiority, and right now, Joan superiority is not a thing that I think exists between two fully drone enabled armies And note the US army is not a fully drone enabled army.

s1artibartfast 4mo ago

I think it was a much more specific question. Both are valid. Iran is a big country ~100 million people. Aircraft carriers can launch planes to disable specific targets. They cant take out an entire country. They could have been more useful if the US was waging total war against Iran, but it isn't/wasnt.

walrus01 4mo ago

If we say that you can fit a small unit of guys equipped with Shahed-136 and launcher, or small missile launcher into just about any civilian garage or small industrial/warehouse-sized structure within a 300 km radius of the strait of hormuz, it would be quite impossible to air strike every possible hiding site without causing absolutely abhorrent and unacceptable civilian casualties. The capability of the IRGC and Iranian regime to hide small to medium sized drone and missile launch equipment within civilian infrastructure (nevermind caves, bunkers, etc) within range of the strait exceeds the capability of the US forces to destroy or remove it. As long as major shipping companies believe that the Iranians retain enough drone and missile capacity to hold the straight under threat, they're not going to sail through it. The only possible way would be an extremely bloody and manpower intensive ground operation to hunt it down at the boots on the ground level.

godwinson__4-8 4mo ago
Which will also not work. America knew how to do this once. Berlin is still in a sense occupied by American troops in that we still have bases there, and through NATO subsidize their defense and way of life. You simply can't kill your way out of political conflicts into perpetuity, unless you truly plan on annihilating everyone. That is part of what makes the alcoholic running the DoD so galling. His thesis on places like Fallujah is essentially there wasn't enough bloodshed. Americans would be vacationing in Baghdad if only there had been more violence.
- walrus01 4mo ago
  > That is part of what makes the alcoholic running the DoD so galling Pretty much what I said in Jan/Feb of this year when the major, bloody nationwide protests of Iranians (est. 15,000 to 40,000 death toll killed by their own "government") kicked off domestically in Iran. Specifically, that the worst possible people were running the executive branch and DoD at this moment in history and that they would rush headlong into something foolish.
  - godwinson__4-8 4mo ago
    Of course they didn't even prevent those massacres. They watched it happen. As I recall the administration seemed unconvinced of this as a pretext for war, and by the time the decapitation started the regime already had regained total control of the streets. And now a negotiation to give the same regime an economic lifeline just so the administration doesn't have to explain to someone in Iowa why the price of gas is going up. I recall Reza Pahlavi on Fox News engaging in the delusion that the current administration cared about the Iranian people. Where is he now?
    - Danox 4mo ago
      Current American administration unfortunately only care’s and listens to the 1% ruling class in any particular country they support that’s been the problem pretty much since 1945 and because of that they never pay attention to what most of the people in the country care about on the ground, and that’s been a problem in Central and South America and most other countries in the second and third world we just keep getting it wrong and we’re simply running out of steam and money…

comicjk 4mo ago

Historically, this is the norm. The British Navy in WWI was a behemoth, but still couldn't force safe passage through the mines and cannons of the Dardanelles Strait against what was considered a third-rate power. "A ship's a fool to fight a fort."

Gud 4mo ago

Because Iran is a huge country with a powerful military and the straight of Hormuz is a tiny spec of water? Obviously this operation was a massive waste.