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He doesn't mention the smartphone, a pocket computer connected to the Internet that may settle an argument at his dinner without recourse to the library the nex

He doesn't mention the smartphone, a pocket computer connected to the Internet that may settle an argument at his dinner without recourse to the library the next day. It may also enable finding out where the friends who are running late are and guide him to the address if it isn't familiar. The smartphone was probably predictable from the early 2000's at the very least. Having said that I'm not that I currently see any similar major leaps coming in the next decade. More accurate and indoor location data could bring useful (and in some ways almost invisible) functionality to the smartphone.

dkarl 14y ago
The smartphone was probably predictable from the early 2000's at the very least. Thinking about smartphone predictability reveals a pattern that might apply to other technologies: an actual dip in predictability caused by technological progress. If you leave out the always-internet-connected aspects of the smartphone, you still have a very small and portable device with books, amusements, up-to-date reference materials such as maps and encyclopedias, current periodicals, and real time voice and video communication. If the Internet did not exist, the iPhone would still have been a breakthrough product. A web-ignorant but otherwise capable iPhone was theoretically predictable half a century ago, but the technological reality of the intervening decades (ugly low-res screens, huge devices with pathetic capabilities, painfully clumsy input methods) depressed our expectations to the point that when it finally happened, it was something of a surprise. AI may be another area where decades of technological disappointment have narrowed our expectations and reduced our ability to imagine what the future will bring. Someone transported from the 1960s might be better at predicting the future of AI than anyone who lived through the intervening decades.
- eric_bullington 14y ago
  This is a really insightful comment. What's slightly disconcerting is thinking of what might be the present day analogue of AI in the 60s. What promising new technology, that we believe to be on the cusp of success, is about to flounder for about 40-50 years, or more, before it takes off? EDIT: Corrected 20-30 years to a more realistic time span with respect to AI.
- Someone 14y ago
  "A web-ignorant but otherwise capable iPhone was theoretically predictable half a century ago […] when it finally happened, it was something of a surprise." That made me think of Bruce Tognazzini (TOG) in "TOG on Interface" (http://www.amazon.com/Tog-Interface-Bruce-Tognazzini/dp/0201608421 http://www.amazon.com/Tog-Interface-Bruce-Tognazzini/dp/0201.... From 1991, but seems unaware of the existence of the world-wide web): "I want the United States Library of Congress on my desktop. I want the collections of every major museum in the world available to project against my wall. I want every issue of every newspaper published in the English-speaking world sitting in my laptop. Is this really too much to ask?" I remembered that first paragraph as ending in "in my pocket", but, apart from minor technical details (for example, wireless communication allows us to shrink the device even further then laptop size, and he isn't asking for all of Hollywood or even for all radio recordings ever made) I think that is a decent prediction of where we are heading.
- derekp7 14y ago
  I think that where AI will shine is not in being the analogue of a human, but in further taking over chores that would otherwise be assigned to a servant many years ago. For example, if you take some variations on the Roomba autonomous vacuum... Imagine a lawn version that automatically sniffs out dog poop and picks it up for you. Or a laundry basket that sorts your laundry, transports it to the washer, then puts your items on hangers and in the closet for you. That's the type of technology (along with self driving cars) that I actually see in the next 20 - 50 years.

dkarl 14y ago

The smartphone was probably predictable from the early 2000's at the very least. Thinking about smartphone predictability reveals a pattern that might apply to other technologies: an actual dip in predictability caused by technological progress. If you leave out the always-internet-connected aspects of the smartphone, you still have a very small and portable device with books, amusements, up-to-date reference materials such as maps and encyclopedias, current periodicals, and real time voice and video communication. If the Internet did not exist, the iPhone would still have been a breakthrough product. A web-ignorant but otherwise capable iPhone was theoretically predictable half a century ago, but the technological reality of the intervening decades (ugly low-res screens, huge devices with pathetic capabilities, painfully clumsy input methods) depressed our expectations to the point that when it finally happened, it was something of a surprise. AI may be another area where decades of technological disappointment have narrowed our expectations and reduced our ability to imagine what the future will bring. Someone transported from the 1960s might be better at predicting the future of AI than anyone who lived through the intervening decades.

eric_bullington 14y ago
This is a really insightful comment. What's slightly disconcerting is thinking of what might be the present day analogue of AI in the 60s. What promising new technology, that we believe to be on the cusp of success, is about to flounder for about 40-50 years, or more, before it takes off? EDIT: Corrected 20-30 years to a more realistic time span with respect to AI.
Someone 14y ago
"A web-ignorant but otherwise capable iPhone was theoretically predictable half a century ago […] when it finally happened, it was something of a surprise." That made me think of Bruce Tognazzini (TOG) in "TOG on Interface" (http://www.amazon.com/Tog-Interface-Bruce-Tognazzini/dp/0201608421 http://www.amazon.com/Tog-Interface-Bruce-Tognazzini/dp/0201.... From 1991, but seems unaware of the existence of the world-wide web): "I want the United States Library of Congress on my desktop. I want the collections of every major museum in the world available to project against my wall. I want every issue of every newspaper published in the English-speaking world sitting in my laptop. Is this really too much to ask?" I remembered that first paragraph as ending in "in my pocket", but, apart from minor technical details (for example, wireless communication allows us to shrink the device even further then laptop size, and he isn't asking for all of Hollywood or even for all radio recordings ever made) I think that is a decent prediction of where we are heading.
derekp7 14y ago
I think that where AI will shine is not in being the analogue of a human, but in further taking over chores that would otherwise be assigned to a servant many years ago. For example, if you take some variations on the Roomba autonomous vacuum... Imagine a lawn version that automatically sniffs out dog poop and picks it up for you. Or a laundry basket that sorts your laundry, transports it to the washer, then puts your items on hangers and in the closet for you. That's the type of technology (along with self driving cars) that I actually see in the next 20 - 50 years.