my 2nd point says that due to dilution rounds your 5% chance is not 10M but about 3M so 5% * $3M = $150k expected equity value $150k / 1.15 = ~$130k/year whi

my 2nd point says that due to dilution rounds your 5% chance is not 10M but about 3M so 5% * $3M = $150k expected equity value $150k / 1.15 = ~$130k/year which is same as you started with